Tom Shugart Profile picture
Apr 20, 2019 21 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Big news (IMO) for SCS watchers: after a couple of years of (AFAIK) no new Google Earth SCS island imagery updates, we just got a bunch of new material (up to 12/2018) for the PRC island bases, Scarborough Shoal, Woody Island, etc. For starters, here's Subi Reef as of 12/2018.
To see this imagery, you'll need the desktop Google Earth app, as Google Maps is still showing what I think was the latest previous imagery, 4/2016 (1st image). With the desktop app, you can use the date slider bar to pull up the latest stuff - what I've found is through 12/2018.
Here's a great new image of the much-discussed retractable roof buildings, along with a point air-defense tower (left).
Here's a shot of a whole bunch of smaller (fighter-size) and larger hangars, as well as other support structures then (2016) and now (12/2018).
Back to where it all started - here's the original Subi Reef structure in 2015, 2016, and 2018.
Here's a great shot of Subi's now-buried hardened underground fuel/water tanks, shown in 2016 and then 2018.
Off to Mischief Reef: here it is in 4/2016 and then 12/2018.
Another then-and-now for hardened fuel and water tanks, this time at Mischief Reef. Look at the scale - that array of tanks is thousands of feet long.
More retractable-roof buildings and air defense towers on Mischief Reef. But hey, these are mostly civilian-supporting facilities, right? 🤨
Here's a set of concrete pads sized for what I imagine will be something like a SAM battery or the like. And what-do-you-know, there are military vehicles parked on them. Any guesses as to what they might be?
Off to Fiery Cross Reef: here it is in 2016 and then 2018.
Here's the site of an antenna farm, air defense tower, and an unknown taller building with a parking ramp (there's one of these on each island), in 2016/2018.
And more of the like, same island.
Small and large hangars, support buildings, etc., on Fiery Cross in 2016 and then 2018.
Multi-story barracks, what I'm guessing are senior officer quarters (with a recreational pool, lower left), etc., then and now.
And folks, anyone can go look at this. Just download Google Earth and take a look, for free. You're welcome. 😁
google.com/earth/versions/
As for the speculation that, hey, maybe China removed the SAM batteries that they deployed to Woody Island... cnn.com/2018/06/06/asi…
...well, it looks like they still have SOMETHING under tarps on that same beach. I'd put my money on something other than beach chairs, Hobie cats, etc. (imagery dtd 11/12/2018)
And where Woody Island used to have under-construction facilities (2016) it now (2018) looks like they're hardened, buried tanks, storage buildings, etc.
Would you like to know more?
warontherocks.com/2016/09/chinas…
Also: as always, all opinions my own - and this is just me posting free, commercially-available imagery I stumbled onto on a Friday night...

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tom Shugart

Tom Shugart Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tshugart3

May 20
Last week saw the publication in @ForeignAffairs of this article by Zhou Bo, a Senior Fellow at a Tsinghua University think tank and a retired Senior Colonel in the Chinese PLA.

A few thoughts on the article and its publication by FA: foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
The gist is that mostly due to US pushback at the rise of the PRC, the US-PRC relationship has deteriorated. But the two nations should talk more & work together where they can.

IMO the article has many misleading statements and half-truths, and serves as propaganda.
Zhou starts by stating the Chinese government experienced "surprise" at U.S. competition and is determined to "fight back", as if China was only reacting to an unprovoked American reaction to a peacefully-rising China. Image
Read 27 tweets
May 16
Anyone know what this NOTAM off of Baja California is about?
Is the Russian Federation firing rockets to impact off the west coast of N America? If so, what rockets? Image
Ok, did a bit more looking into this this morning - bottom line, I think it's an impact area for a humdrum Russian space launch.

There's another NOTAM impact area at the same times in the Barents for Russian space launch activities. Image
If you connect the dots from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, to the Barents impact area, to the East Pacific impact area, they're all almost in a straight line.
So I imagine this is for a launch from there, with the stage booster drop into the Barents, and the 2nd into EastPac. Image
Read 5 tweets
May 13
PRC FERRY UPDATE: the Bohai Ferry BO HAI BAO ZHU has deviated from its normal route across the Yellow Sea, and appears headed south.
Of note, it's transmitting a false AIS destination - that it's operating from Dalian to Yantai - when it's clearly not headed to Yantai. Image
At the same time, its sister ship Bo Hai Zhen Zhu now appears headed to Xiamen, after loading near Nanjing and then heading up to Ningbo, though it doesn't appear it moored at Ningbo. Image
As a reminder, both ferries are part of the PLA-associated Bohai Ferry Group.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9
Now that the 2023 ship launch numbers are in (or at least my best guess of them), it's time for an update on the last 10 years worth of PLA Navy shipbuilding, and how it compares the production from the U.S. and allied navies.
These estimates will generally cover ships launched from 2014-2023, and will include ships useful in high intensity combat/power projection: subs, carriers, amphibious assault ships, surface combatants, ocean going fleet auxiliaries (e.g., tankers), and mine warfare ships.
First, let’s look at hull count. By my estimate, the PLAN launched 157 warships over the years 2014-2023. As always, these numbers are from open source data for ship launches which China doesn't always publicize, so don't @ me if you have a niggle with them. 🤷‍♂️ Image
Read 15 tweets
Dec 3, 2023
UDPDATE: a few months back I provided this update on one of China's shipyard construction projects - the expansion of Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard—a major supplier to the PLA Navy, building mostly frigates and amphibious assault ships.
So yesterday I decided to grab some imagery (from @planet via @SkyWatchApps) to see how things were proceeding. I expected to see continued construction progress.
What I didn't expect to see is that THEY ARE ALREADY BUILDING SHIPS THERE. 😯 Image
There have been rumors in the media that this new yard would start construction of a new class of amphibious assault ship - the Type 076. And it looks like that might well be the case. scmp.com/news/china/mil…
Read 6 tweets
Nov 7, 2023
This is an interesting & engaging article by @james_acton32 on counterforce vs. counter-value nuclear targeting. Which targeting philosophy to follow (or even what they mean) is a question on which reasonable people can and do disagree. warontherocks.com/2023/11/two-my…
That said, I think the "myths" that the article centers on and debunks in discussing the issue are a bit of a straw man - in that IMO few people who know anything about nuclear targeting/policy actually believe them. Image
Let's look at the evidence he puts forward in support of Myth 1. First, there's the primary link describing the them...

Oops, broken link!

Now, this happens. Authors can't control web site changes. (Most links for my older articles are broken.) But this article is 1 day old. 🤷‍♂️ Image
Read 22 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(