Short thread to summarize yesterday's remarkable election outcome in #Greece 1/
The size of SYRIZA defeat was underestimated by most surveys and exit polls. In the end, SYRIZA got 23.83% compared to New Democracy's 33.24%, a whopping 9.4 percentage point difference. It was this difference that forced Tsipras to call a snap election, expected for June 30th 2/
SYRIZA did even worse in the prefectural and municipal elections and will likely have very few elected local leaders 3/
KINAL, what remains of the former formidable Socialist Party PASOK, came up third and stabilized its position with 7.6% but failed to gain over SYRIZA. It remains to be seen whether it can profit from SYRIZA's defeat 4/
KINAL came in third because the Neonazi Golden Dawn came up fifth with just 4.85%. This is it's first loss since the 2010 crisis brought it to the forefront; many observers thought it signaled the way of the future; we no know they were wrong 5/
A far-right TV persona (Velopoulos) won part of Golden Dawn's electorate getting 4.12%, but it is clear that the extreme right has lost whatever momentum it previously had 6/
Another political byproduct of the crisis died yesterday a quiet death: Independent Greeks (ANEL), the former populist right SYRIZA partner (and their leader, former Defense Minister Panos Kammenos), are moving into political oblivion with a pitiful 0.80%. 7/
Appropriately, the spirit of ANEL continues to live within SYRIZA, as several of its MPs joined in. One of the most successful SYRIZA Euro MP candidates turns out to be Elena Kountoura, a former ANEL MP 8/
The best way to see these elections is as a major step in the direction of populist disaggregation: SYRIZA has been a PASOK wannabe for a long time, the fragmentation of the party system is over, the center-right dominates, and the populist far-right has lost its momentum 9/
Expect to see these trends magnified in the forthcoming national elections (likely to be held on June 30th). It is hard to see how a lame duck Tsipras will be able to contain the slide of its party. For a long time he has cultivated an aura of invincibility which is now over 10/
This is also a personal victory for New Democracy leader, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who led his party with a sure hand and a consistent strategy. New Democracy is set to win a parliamentary majority which will give him the ability to implement its program 11/
In sum, the populist cycle appears to be closing for Greece, a country that became the lighting road for populist politics back in 2012, with many back then predicting chaos, dystopia, revolution, fascism, or even civil war. 12/
It is obviously too early to say how this generalizes beyond Greece, but insofar as Greece became the early poster child for the populist explosion, what happened yesterday (and likely to be confirmed on June 30th) holds some significant, broader lessons. Ends/

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More from @SKalyvas

4 Oct 19
Παραθέτω ορισμένες επιγραμματικές παρατηρήσεις που άκουσα στο εξαιρετικό συνέδριο του Ιστορικού Αρχείου της Alpha Bank με θέμα "Πολιτική και Κράτος κατά τον 20ο και 21ο αιώνα" που γίνεται αυτές τις μέρες στο Ναύπλιο 1/
Πάνος Τσακλόγλου: "Κευνσιανισμός είναι η αντικυκλική πολιτική, δεν είναι η αέναη επεκτατική πολιτική" 2/
Μάνος Ματσαγγάνης: "Η κρίση του ασφαλιστικού (και κατ' επέκταση η Κρίση" ήταν μια συνωμοσία των παρόντων ενατνίον των απόντων" 3/
Read 22 tweets
16 Feb 17
Lessons I learned from Greece #1: abysmal incompetence of populist government leads many to mistaken belief it will be over quickly
Lessons I learned from Greece #2: for a long time you think you've seen the worst, but you haven't seen anything yet
Lessons I learned from Greece #3: the things that strike you as utterly shocking are applauded by others, perhaps even the majority
Read 28 tweets

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