1. Sensing Trump’s aversion to conflict, Iranian officials are all using the same talking points that they’re prepared for further escalation/war. Even an advisor to Rouhani (@DiakoH) threatened that Iran could “destroy civilization” in the smaller countries in the Gulf. 
2. This is the intended effect Iran is hoping for: “President Donald Trump has privately pushed his representatives to walk back their tough talk on Iran—and reiterate that the administration is not aiming to go to war with Tehran.” thedailybeast.com/trump-tells-hi…
3. But given the escalation cycle has now been set in motion, it’s difficult to reverse: “Iran and the US are locked in a security dilemma: everything each side does to strengthen its defenses looks to the other side like preparation for attack” defenseone.com/ideas/2019/06/…
4. Now that Tehran has shot down a valuable US drone, both sides now share the same dilemma: “If we don’t respond to this provocation it will project weakness and invite more aggressive behavior”
5. Trump’s consistent messaging that he only seeks the benefits of his “maximum pressure” policy (a summit/deal) but is averse to the potential costs (escalation/conflict) made Iran likely feel it could throw some free counter-punches. Now here we are:
