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Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
@DmitryOpines
Aug 15, 2019 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
1/ There are actors in the Brexit conversation who have consistently evoked the WTO to hand-wave the consequences of No-Deal.

They have been at it for years and they still are.

They are wrong and dangerously so, and the proof has started to emerge.

A thread on one example.
2/ Context: Earlier, the French Embassy tweeted out a fact-sheet on what UK plant and animal product exporters will have to do in order to bring their goods into the EU.

It's a procedure including paperwork and at-border vet checks.

The very definition of a non-tariff barrier.
3/ There's nothing surprising in this document. The French are planning to apply to the UK the same checks and obligations as they do to any 3rd country supplier.

This was always coming...

... but that's not what the British public were told.
4/ Here's Professor David Collins in the Spectator in August last year writing that the exact barriers described above and confidently predicted by literally everyone wouldn't happen because they'd be illegal under the WTO's SPS and TBT agreements.

spectator.co.uk/2018/08/whos-a…
5/ Here he is providing the legal rationale behind this view in September of 2018.

I particularly enjoyed the last few paragraphs where he speculates whether those who disagree with him are fear-mongers, EU agents or profiteers.

lawyersforbritain.org/brexit-and-the…
6/ Prefer to be misled by economists instead of legal scholars?

My boy Professor P. Minford has your back, yo.

Here's a passage from the Economists for Free Trade Report "No Deal is the Best Deal for the UK."

You can read it here: economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/upl…

... but I wouldn't.
7/ What about some political leaders?

Well, here's Jacob Rees-Mogg making the claim these barriers will never happen while chiding the Treasury for being silly enough to model that they will.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
8/ So there you have it.

The No-Dealer's favorite WTO law professor, their favorite economist, and their favorite Charles Dickens Esq character.

All confident.
All dismissive of dissenters.
All wrong about what UK exporters will face.

Draw your own conclusions. /end

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More from @DmitryOpines

Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Apr 22
1/ Recorded a guide to how I personally would go about challenging seven of the most common arguments against the US sending aid to Ukraine.

Hopefully some of you find it useful.

Will very briefly summarize the counter-arguments I make in this thread.

Arguments addressed:
Image
2/ Ukrainians were fighting before US aid arrived and continued fighting after it paused.

Depriving Ukrainians of hope to drive them to the negotiating table is morally abhorrent.

Putin won't negotiate reasonably if he thinks he can militarily crush an abandoned Ukraine. Image
3/ It's a war of attrition and every shell matters. Russians are taking significant casualties already, with US aid they'll take a lot more.

Prior to the pause in US aid, Russia was on the defensive, now it's made incremental gains. US aid matters. Image
Read 10 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Mar 18
🚨Slightly Mortifying Personal News 🚨

I wrote a book and it's now on pre-sale (link below).

I've spent years yelling at my screen as influential people who can or should know better said wild things about trade to advance their agendas.

This book is my attempt to push back. A book called "Why Politicians Lie About Trade... and What You Need to Know About it" by Dmitry Grozoubinski. The front cover depicts a man in a suit speaking to a crowd from the deck of a laden container ship.
The book will be released on May 23rd of this year, published by @CanburyPress. You can pre-order it below.

It is my attempt to explain trade policy and the choices it involves as I would if anyone were ever dumb enough to ask me over a glass of wine.

canburypress.com/products/why-p…
The book's premise is that trade policy is a growing part of the conversation around issues, from jobs to healthcare and even war that voters actually care about...

... but it's complex and counter-intuitive, so politicians can lie about it with impunity, and that matters.
Read 6 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Nov 5, 2023
1/ I like people and think they're overwhelmingly good and decent.

My default assumption is that whatever the slogans, or extremist elements, the vast majority of the people on the streets are just appalled by the images coming out of Gaza, and are calling for peace.
2/ Has every single person marching got a comprehensive and fool proof 12 point plan for reconciling Palestinian independence, Israeli security, regional geo-stability and the million other factors at play?

No, and that's fine. Marches are about sending signals that we care.
3/ Do I, as a Jew, wish the marchers were a little bit more thoughtful about the implications of some of their messaging?

Sure. I guess.

But it's a mass movement and like all such things, creates its own social incentives for having the spiciest take in the room.
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Oct 28, 2023
1/ International law lacks enforcement because major powers negotiating it did not want mechanisms that could kinetically prevent, curtail or punish the pursuit of their ends, even if the means involved breach the letter or spirit of the law.

They still don't.
2/ What little power international law has is almost entirely normative.

It only matters as long as countries believe it matters - and so for lack of better options we repeat ad nauseum that it does, while also arguing its broad benefits outweigh any specific constraints.
3/ What's infuriating about this is that reinforcing the normative power of international law rhetorically requires a great deal of exaggeration, selective vision and hypocrisy.

To make the case that international law matters we have to ignore all the times it clearly didn't.
Read 6 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Aug 23, 2023
1/ Remember the best and most consistently accurate way of understanding Putin is to think of him as a mob boss.

It's The Wire, not the West Wing.

Prigozhin disrespected the Godfather and made him look weak. That's it. That's the only relevant consideration.
2/ "Won't this undermine Russia's efforts in the Sahel?"

Putin doesn't care. The Sahel is important to Russia's strategic plans. It's not important to him.

Murdering Capos who disrespect you and make you look weak is Putin's understanding of how you stay in power.
3/ "Won't this damage army morale and make the Ukraine war harder?"

Putin doesn't care. Higher Russian body count, a few more Ukrainian villages taken. Not important.

What's important is the message: for the disloyal there are no second chances and no happy endings.
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Aug 14, 2023
I wanted to go through this point by point, respectfully and assuming every question raised was in absolute good faith.

Note: I know nothing about this man or his politics (though I can guess) and am treating his questions seriously for the benefit of other readers.
The US has exactly as many serving troops fighting in Ukraine as its NATO European allies: zero.

The US **is** contributing a lot of materiel, but Europeans collectively are also sending a lot, both in real terms and as a percentage of GDP. Image
This conflict started in 2014 under Obama, continued throughout the entirety of Trump's term, and sharply escalated in 2022 under Biden when Putin arbitrarily decided to seize Kyiv.

If you want to draw causal linkages there you're welcome to. I struggle to see them. Image
Read 16 tweets

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