Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Aug 17, 2019 3 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1. Turkish Defence Minister Akar arrives in Şanlıurfa for examinations at the Syrian border. syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/16-aug…
2. I fear the US @SOJTFOIR and #SDF are walking into a trap. Turkey has its FSA jihadist force ready to act as Syrian proxies to help overwhelm the US forces before SDF can redeploy. Here is the shot in Şanlıurfa when Akar flew off. That's the FSA flag. This is a force with
3. Al-Qaeda and ISIS fighters. We need a full brigade on the border and that FSA force should be forced to withdraw. Just Turkish army regulars. They will, at a minimum, infiltrate elements of that FSA force behind our lines. All jihadists are the enemy. @CENTCOM @DefenseIntel.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Mar 24
1.Since 2014, I have consistently expressed my belief that Russia and ISIS (nka Daesh) were connected. Today, Daesh thrives in an area of Syria that is protected from US strikes due to a US deconfliction agreement with Russia. Image
2. Let's watch and see if Russia does anything to disturb Daesh in this area. The reporting on the attack and the fact that AMAQ is reporting in the manner it has not previously reported is consistent with my view that Russia and Daesh are at least tacitly affiliated.
3. Putin's clumsy attempt to claim this as a Ukrainian operation despite the fact that the US raised the alarm is consistent with this conclusion. It also may evidence that Putin is becoming increasingly desperate and turning to dangerous poorly planned operations to gain
Read 5 tweets
Mar 23
1. Bankruptcy is often used to perform the function of orderly liquidation of debtor assets to pay creditors through a process optimized to keep costs of liquidation low. Take a hotel that cannot be reorganized but needs to be sold. If a judgment creditor holding a huge
2. judgment levies execution and sell it on the courthouse steps it often gets a pittance where the sale is subject to senior liens and encumbrances. But in a bankruptcy section 11 USC 363(f) sale, the property can be marketed and, best of all, be sold free
3.and clear of any liens or encumbrances. For Trump to simply roll over and allow the AG to start selling his properties is totally insane. I can think of a few reasons why he might cave and the first may be that the scrutiny that bankruptcy brings might expose the real source
Read 8 tweets
Mar 23
1. The capture of the alleged ISIS-K terrorists near Belarus makes perfect sense if Putin had planned this. He would be able to control information near the attack to make sure the attackers escaped but if he gave orders far beyond Moscow to allow them to escape at the border
2. that could risk the plan being exposed. So the dutiful Russian border forces did not stand down and when they saw the something suspicious made the stop then posted it, likely to Telegram, that the Kremlin uses and thus has opened a portal that can disrupt planning.
3. And because the group is not really ISIS , who would be wearing explosive suicide vests and never be captured, at least one was captured. Now Putin's plan is going to be at risk of unraveling with only the well-meaning but uniformed and easily manipulated western media to
Read 4 tweets
Mar 21
1. When the the liens start hitting Trump assets and he's forced to sit for debtor exams the truth will emerge that the NY case has exposed, not just the instances of fraud in the allegations raised therein, but that his entire "empire" is simply a grift. I seriously doubt there
2. is more than $100m in equity once the costs of liquidation are deducted from sales proceeds. His fee burn in the litigation will eat that up in short order. I also suspect that he can't find sufficient unrestricted cash to retain a competent bankruptcy firm to try to save
3. what's left. It's worth noting that his lack of self-control to avoid public attacks on one of his rape victims that led to the E Jean Carroll judgments may have been a major contributing factor in his financial demise but it also came at a time the commercial real estate
Read 7 tweets
Mar 21
1. The Trump 2023 ethics disclosure tells me he's broke. First as you can see highlighted, he unloaded a ton of commercial real estate while the market was depressed. I would doubt he got anything but workouts to walk away from the assets. We know he sold the old DC post office. Image
2. somebody needs to run title reports on all these assets to see if he still owns any of them. The Chicago building is perhaps why he can't put his entities in bankruptcy that I thought he would have filed by now. Without seeing the loan docs it's impossible to be sure
3. but the now 13.5% "Springing loan" could evidence that he gave a personal guarantee on the other loans that was recourse as opposed to most non-recourse development loans meaning if he doesn't pay the other loans and seeks bankruptcy protection the
Read 4 tweets
Mar 17
1. Did Trump's, there will be a bloodbath if he loses, statement violate his terms of release? Was that a crime of violence? Ordinarily such a statement would not be actionable because there is no imminent threat, but when a person is released pending charges for actions
2. that led to an insurrection, does that meet the Brandenburg v. Ohio imminent threat of lawless action test? Does it even apply in a case where the defendant is on pre-trial release?

The imminent lawless action test was addressed in
3. Stewart v. McCoy (2002) with an individual who had been accused of advising gang members on how to organize. Justice John Paul Stevens, addressing SCOTUS' denial of certiorari wrote: “Long range planning of criminal enterprises — which may include
Read 7 tweets

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