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Most recents (24)
1/ #SDF stops fighting daesh 4 now because of Turkey's attacks on peaceful villages & densely populated areas along the border. After Erdogan met with German, Russian, France leader he stepped up attacks & threats. His forces launched 6 attacks killing 1 HXP & wounding civilians
2/ We in SDF consider these attacks a direct support to the daesh terrorists whose counter attacks were coordinated with those of Turk army. SDF has decided to stop fighting daesh temporarily, if attacks continue it will be long term.
3/ Cmnd of SDF is ready to answer any external threat targeting the security and stability of liberated areas. We call on Int Community to denounce the attacks by the Turk state on the only safe zones in Syria & call on @coalition to take a firm stance to stop Turkish attack &
Read 4 tweets
The US pretends to support the independence of Syria and Iraq ejmagnier.com/2018/10/30/the…
#Iraq Hashd al-Shaabi attacked #ISIS in Baghuz, disregarding #US recommendation to keep away from the #Syrian borders.

Iraqi counterterrorism leaders believe the US officials would like to see #ISIS in the area to stop the reopening of albu Kamal crossing between #Syria & Iraq.
Hashd commanders said two #ISIS commanders abu Sayyaf and Abu Leith were killed during the #Iraq/i bombing.

Read 5 tweets
Whelp time to get this done. #Thread on the absolutely embarrassing loss that the #SDF just took in the #Hajin pocket.

DISCLAIMER: This thread will contain heavy amounts of salt.
At the time of this tweet, information I received was 3 hours old and attacks were ongoing.

#DMC forces had been forced out of the area in #Susah blocking #Marashidah wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=3… and were holding positions in the Palestine neighborhood
wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=3…

DMC retreated to areas with #YPG in this neighborhood. At this time inghimasi units appeared from tunnels behind and within the YPG positions. Because apparently no one had fully cleared the area. This caused a serious issue and caused YPG to retreat.
Read 18 tweets
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In this thread I will explain the importance of #Tanf #AlTanf #التنف

PS: Russia will always attack #US & #SDF whether there's Tanf or not. #RIAH [#Russia-#Iran-#Assad-#Hezbollah] wants US out of #Syria, all of Syria & will use all legal/illegal means
1/
You know the proverb: All roads lead to Rome.

Already 1000s of year ago, expansionists knew that hegemony requires take over of:

1- Infrastructure:
-seaports
-land routes
-border crossings (later when airplanes were invented also airports)
2- Locals
3- Resources
2/
Roman/Byzantine Empire took over countries & created an infrastructure network leading to its HQ. This facilitated transport of military & resources.
Today also other countries use same strategy. First thing is take over of infrastructure: sea/airports/land routes/crossings.
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Always great to be on @cnni with @rosemaryCNN Church.

Francona: #Syria would be insane to use chemical weapons in the assault on #Idlib governorate. Bashar al-Asad knows using chemical weapons will draw a military response from the United States, France and possibly the UK.
It’s hard to understand the absurdity, but it appears that as long as you only use barrel bombs, artillery, rockets, and missiles to kill, it is deemed almost acceptable, but cross that line and use chemicals, the ire of the world demands a military response. So why use them?
There is no military reason for the Syrians to use chemical weapons. With #Russia|n airpower, artillery, and rocket and missile strikes, combined with #Iran|ian and Hizballah support on the ground, the Syrian military has the required force to reassert control over Idlib.
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Thread Upsum
#IRGC and #Hezbollah have trained hundreds of #SDF fighters who will be joining the #SAA offensive on the W. #Aleppo - #Saraqeb Axis. The deal was forged in August and immediately put to work.
It began back in July when an #SDF delegation met Gen. Ali Mamlouk in #Damascus. His coterie included the #SAA Coordination officer with #Iran-ian forces. He berated the SDF for dealing with Americans, called them “US agents” and asked them to "show loyalty" to #Syria.
Then, negotiations began when #SDF offered to take part in the forthcoming #Idlib offensive, as a way of building trust between both parties. In return, the #SAA would have to back up their claim for #Afrin. The idea sounded agreeable and tweaks began.
Read 7 tweets
Fascinating work by @HaidHaid22 - looking at initiatives (or a lack, thereof) by the #SDF & the #FSA to reconcile/rehabilitate/reintegrate #ISIS detainees in northern #Syria.

Really important backgrounder:

icsr.info/2018/08/20/rei…
@HaidHaid22 #pt: According to @HaidHaid22’s work for @ICSR_Centre, one’s decision to join #ISIS in #Syria was driven primarily by x4 factors:

1. Financial benefits
2. Protection
3. Military capacity
4. Ideology

Less than 20% of recruits joined for ideological reasons.
@HaidHaid22 @ICSR_Centre #pt: @HaidHaid22 raises a number of important questions for @CJTFOIR & its #SDF partner:

- Surging strains on the #SDF's makeshift prison network holding 1,000s of #ISIS prisoners, raises risks of eventual #ISIS attacks, aimed at replicating #Iraq’s 2012-3 “Breaking the Walls.”
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Preparations appear to be underway for a pro-#Assad offensive on #Idlib.

12hrs of on/off air & artillery strikes vs. southeastern & western #Idlib & northern #Hama - see marks on map (original by @ETANA_Syria + my additions).

+ multiple large pro-regime convoys moving north.
@ETANA_Syria #pt: If/when any major military campaign gets underway, expect the #Assad regime (+ #Russia & #Iran-backed militias) to focus on these 2 fronts:

1) West #Idlib (Jisr al-Shughour)
2) N. #Hama/#SE #Idlib (Latamineh, Khan Sheikhoun, Kafrazita)

-> a gradual push ‘inland’ & north.
@ETANA_Syria Very good by @theIRC’s @DMiliband:

- The West must “re-assert” itself & protect civilians in NW #Syria & as a backstop, safe-routes should be opened for civilians to flee into #Turkey.

- UNSC must demand full access to S #Syria; for aid, monitoring etc.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-w…
Read 83 tweets
Our partner force in #Syria, the #SDF/#PKK is further formalizing its close relationship with the #Asad/#Iran system and mulling joint offensive operations against a #NATO member. So that's all going well. reut.rs/2LD074A
As @Reuters notes: our partner in #Syria, the #SDF/#PKK, a paragon of liberalism and Western values, "indefinitely postponed" the final stage of an election that was already a Soviet-style sham, excluding thousands of Arabs and run under conditions of suffocating autocracy.
Be interesting to see if the U.S. responds publicly to the #SDF/#PKK's suggestion it will help in #Asad-#Iran-#Russia's proposed campaign of mass-slaughter in Idlib and in joint attacks on NATO's #Turkey.

One highly doubts it; the PKK has literally got away with murder so far.
Read 5 tweets
Thread.
Selected list of #indictments and #sentencings
July 20, 23, 24, 2018
👇
1. Ibraheem Musaibli and Samantha Elhassani will be charged with aiding ISIS. They were transferred from the custody of SDF to US Law Enforcement.
#SDF #ISIS

justice.gov/usao-ndin/pr/p…
Read 14 tweets
Michael Dempsey argues that after the pro-Asad forces roll over Deraa, Idlib is next, and then comes the east, against the U.S. partner, the #SDF/#PKK, unless the U.S. does some creative thinking and stays invested. <Some comments below> warontherocks.com/2018/07/what-d…
I am not sure that #Turkey will stand aside in Idlib. Dempsey is right that the Turks' presence is "limited" but as a military-political matter (calling it a "red line", coping with an influx of 2m refugees plus terrorists, space it gives to PKK) Ankara needs to hold its ground.
On the Asad Alliance side, yes, if Asad/Iran decide to attack #Idlib, Russia can do nothing and will join in. Even so, assuming Turkey does not fold, it's not clear the regime coalition has the capacity for this offensive. Perhaps it does, but that shouldn't be an assumption.
Read 5 tweets
Amid #Assad regime offensive in south #Syria, worth bearing in mind its continued bombing of areas in #Idlib - also under a so-called “de-escalation zone.”

Having watched the southern zone dissolved w/o response from #Jordan or #Israel, #Turkey’s now warning #Idlib = “red line."
#Turkey has deployed its own armed forces to x12 “observation posts” fencing in opposition areas & enforcing de-escalation.

#Russia seems invested in stability in #Idlib - but for how long?

After #Deraa, will #Assad & #Iran destroy the last remaining “de-escalation zone”?
For now, expect periodic regime bombing raids & notably, also ‘spoiling’ attacks by fighters unrestrained by #Turkey’s iron grip.

#HTS will remain internally divided on de-escalation -- the more regime bombings, the heavier the pressure for #HTS to respond = #Assad opportunity.
Read 26 tweets
A group calling itself "The Committee of Peaceful movement in #Raqqa" called for a peaceful uprising against the Kurdish-led #SDF. The statement demanded the Syrian Democratic Forces to leave the city and hand it over to its people.
Clashes have broken out between the “#Raqqa Revolutionary Brigade” and the Kurdish-led #SDF in the northern suburbs of Raqqa, northern #Syria.
The Kurdish #YPG component of the #SDF have besieged the HQ of the #FSA “Raqqa Revolutionaries Brigade” and clashed with them at several points. They have called upon the people of #Raqqa to go out and demonstrate immediately against these militias and their actions.
Read 6 tweets
It’s extraordinary just how much BS gets created in people’s minds.

I never once expressed “support” for #Turkey’s #Afrin operation.

- Did I say it was inevitable? Yes.
- Did I observe it & comment on its advance vis-a-vis broader #Syria dynamics (i.e. my job)? Yes.
My critique has always been about the imbalance/s created in northern #Syria by U.S. counter-#ISIS policy.

The #YPG was/is the #PKK - all U.S. officials admit that in private. That didn’t necessarily have to preclude working with them, but ignoring it caused big, big problems.
#pt: As an analyst of terrorist groups, I did see a certain irony & short-sightedness in the words of one top, serving U.S. official, “allying with a terrorist group (#PKK) to fight another terrorist group (#ISIS).”

It’s got nothing to do with any position on #Kurds, whatsoever.
Read 7 tweets
Interesting [alleged] details on possible US-#Turkey roadmap on #Manbij, #Syria - from @ragipsoylu.

#PKK “advisors” to leave… followed later by #YPG… TSK to control 5/11 observation posts & train new local security force to replace #SDF in ~6 months.
@ragipsoylu Unsurprisingly, the #PKK-controlled, #YPG/#SDF-run #Manbij Military Council (MMC) has refused any TSK presence.

Seems U.S. did not pre-consult with MMC - why? Would seem the logical thing to work out internal issues first…

Does someone want spoilers?

reuters.com/article/us-mid…
@ragipsoylu The #YPG/#SDF’s political “co-chair,” Ilham Ahmed (a #PKK veteran) has reportedly arrived in #Damascus for talks with the #Assad regime.

Ilham Ahmed is a regular visitor to Washington DC - a close partner to the U.S/@CJTFOIR/@StateDept.
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#Assad: we didn't send people to #Idlib, they wanted to go to Idlib because all these groups have the same incubator and ideas. (around min 5) rt.com/news/428299-as…
#Assad on the #SDF: we share much in common, including profound mistrust of the Americans, we are going to negotiate with the SDF, if no negotiations, we are going to liberate by force, with or without the Americans in the picture (around min 12)
#Assad: #Israel is panicking because it lost its dear ones, #alQaeda/#Nusra. Both targeted our air defenses, Israel & #US inflicted some loss, but thanks to #Russia, the situation is getting better. Recent attacks by the Americans, English and French prove this point.
Read 24 tweets
@LizSly does not accurately state what Assad said. Readers must be careful to note that Assad never said America "will be expelled by force". These are the words of Liz and not Assad (hence they don't have quotation marks). The use of force wording was directed at #SDF ==> More=>
2-Assad: If the first option of negotiations with #SDF does not work, "we are going to resort to liberating those areas by force. With Americans or without Americans, We don't have any other option. This is our land. It is our right. it is out duty to liberate" ==>
3-Assad: “The Americans should leave, somehow they're going to leave. They came to Iraq with no legal basis, and look what happened to them. They have to learn the lesson. Iraq is no exception, and Syria is no exception. People will not accept foreigners in this region anymore”=>
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⚡️⚡️⚡️#SDF reported to prepare for redeploying their forces from mostly Arabian cities of #Manbij, #Raqqa and #Tabqa. The decision was taken 4 day ago in talks with Gulf representatives in Ain Issa. The Saudi and Emirates occupation of #Syria's East will replace the #US one
#Saudi military advisors hold talks with #Kurdish representatives in #Kobani (Ayn al Arab)
wp.me/p7TRRn-6HW
#Turkish, #US forces will control #Syria's #Manbij region until new administration is formed. #SDF will withdraw till the end of the summer – #Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut #Cavusoglu
Read 5 tweets
BREAKING: The White House has said that US President #Trump is canceling his upcoming South America trip to remain in the US "to oversee the American response to Syria." - @NBCNews
This sounds like the US is planning to strike #Syria and Trump will remain in the US to closely monitor responses by #Russia. This is terrible.
BREAKING - British forces are now mobilizing at their bases in #Cyprus for strikes against #Syria. It appears very likely that the US, France and U.K. will strike Syria in the next 24 hours. This is dreadful.
Read 182 tweets
The logic driving this “humanitarian” narrative is riddled with inaccuracies & contradiction.

1. @MaxBoot says we should “let #Assad win,” but that at the same time, the U.S. should “stand with” the #SDF in 25% of #Syria (the northeast) -- how does that work, exactly?
2. The author also says U.S should “cut a deal” w. #Erdogan, in which “the #YPG will sever all support for the #PKK” … [despite the vast majority of #PYD/YPG leadership being long-time PKK/KCK veterans.]

Speak to anyone who regularly visits #SDF in NE - PKK calls the shots.
3. The author also links recent pictures of #Aleppo’s public park to compare “2016 charnel house” to 2018 "civilians strolling through its rebuilt public park.”

Except the park sat in regime-held territory & was barely touched in 4yrs of war. How does conquered east Aleppo look?
Read 7 tweets
#Iran / #Syria Thread: Key to understanding this topic is to appreciate how perceptions matter just as much reality. Similarly, the political angle of this topic also matters just as much, if not more, than the empirical & Intel-based facts related to this subject matter =>
2-As early as Dec 2016, some of us warned here (see thread below) that @realDonaldTrump Admin was likely to take an anti-Iran tilt & make it a pillar of its regional strategy. The Admin was also expected to be more Pro-Israel than its predecessors. Both turned out to be right =>
3-In order to understand what the U.S. is currently doing in #Syria , one needs to understand what the U.S. couldn't possibly do politically once the mission of ISIS's "annihilation" was complete. So, why didn't @realDonaldTrump do his own "mission accomplished" and leave? =>
Read 19 tweets
#SRO| IMPORTANT - #US seems to consider that Euphrates limit agreement (between #SDF and regime) must be applied completely : under aircover, #Deir_Ezzor military council took over Tabiyah from regime. First time #USAF giving air support for an offensive against regime (1).
#SRO | IMPORTANT - By taking over Tabiyah, #SDF now only 15 km east to #DeZ gates. #Deir_Ezzor military council always considered all areas north and east to Deir Ezzor are parts of their own legitimacy to govern. But very strange move as #US giving them support for these claims.
#SRO| IMPORTANT - Main problem is that #Deir_Ezzor Military Council (#SDF backed and linked) also consider... #Deir_Ezzor city as part of their areas to govern... But #US will never accept a complete war about Deir Ezzor. They want to show they can help but not so much...
Read 3 tweets
I agree with @MoonofA, something is not adding up that the #US is telling the world.
It seems possible pro-SAA militias/Wagner made a deal with Arab elements of #SDF to swap control of Conoco field.
I personally think #US did not lay trap..
moonofalabama.org/2018/02/syria-…
I think #US was actually unaware until late that Arab elements want to be under Syrian flag again (not unthinkable, Tribal fighters of same tribes are under #SAA and #SDF flags).
US had no idea deal was made, until militias/Wagner start to move to Conoco.
This would explain why militias/Wagner was moving in without any airsupport or anti-air cover: they asumed all was arranged for safe passage to Conoco.
Note that Conoco also had some Russian mediators stationed there just after #SDF had captured it.
Read 5 tweets
#SRO - What happened in Kusham area is the first real and strong #US action to protect its interests, the #SDF and its military advisors... Be sure this will reinforce #SDF recuitment policy and popularity... (1)
#SRO - Since weeks, as #Afrin offensive began and since #US administration thretened to cut support of clashes against #Turkey, recruitment for #SDF ranks was decreasing seriously (it was clear for #Raqqa governorate and #Manbij area) (2).
#SRO - #US intervention to strike a regime offensive, killing dozens and destroying dozen tanks, isn't about to erase #US stance on #Afrin, but population in Northern Federation to consider their ally with another point of view : yes, #US can be a good ally when needed... (END).
Read 4 tweets
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