As I feared and tracked, #RIAH [#Russia-#Iran-#Assad-#Hezbollah] is going to kill a lot of #Syrian people in #Idlib with CW and without CW then falsely claim that RIAH is innocent, its CW as well as all its killing is fabricated.
Why I am saying this?
I clarify in this thread
1/ #RIAH [#Russia-#Iran-#Assad-#Hezbollah] prepared #Idlib Ops almost to perfection. But every criminal commits a mistake which exposes his crime. And RIAH committed a huge mistake. But first let me dive into RIAH's criminal mind.
2/ I grew up in war in #Lebanon and witnessed it, it took me time in retrospect to understand what happened. The disinformation campaign by Assad was huge I'll explain few things so that you understand RIAH's modus operandi and psychological warfare, its raison d'etre and effect.
Already 1000s of year ago, expansionists knew that hegemony requires take over of:
-border crossings (later when airplanes were invented also airports) 2- Locals 3- Resources
2/ Roman/Byzantine Empire took over countries & created an infrastructure network leading to its HQ. This facilitated transport of military & resources.
Today also other countries use same strategy. First thing is take over of infrastructure: sea/airports/land routes/crossings.
Francona: #Syria would be insane to use chemical weapons in the assault on #Idlib governorate. Bashar al-Asad knows using chemical weapons will draw a military response from the United States, France and possibly the UK.
It’s hard to understand the absurdity, but it appears that as long as you only use barrel bombs, artillery, rockets, and missiles to kill, it is deemed almost acceptable, but cross that line and use chemicals, the ire of the world demands a military response. So why use them?
There is no military reason for the Syrians to use chemical weapons. With #Russia|n airpower, artillery, and rocket and missile strikes, combined with #Iran|ian and Hizballah support on the ground, the Syrian military has the required force to reassert control over Idlib.
Thread Upsum #IRGC and #Hezbollah have trained hundreds of #SDF fighters who will be joining the #SAA offensive on the W. #Aleppo - #Saraqeb Axis. The deal was forged in August and immediately put to work.
It began back in July when an #SDF delegation met Gen. Ali Mamlouk in #Damascus. His coterie included the #SAA Coordination officer with #Iran-ian forces. He berated the SDF for dealing with Americans, called them “US agents” and asked them to "show loyalty" to #Syria.
Then, negotiations began when #SDF offered to take part in the forthcoming #Idlib offensive, as a way of building trust between both parties. In return, the #SAA would have to back up their claim for #Afrin. The idea sounded agreeable and tweaks began.
1/ My 2 cents on #Turkey-#US relations and the GordonAfrin-knot
As I always say: The devil in the detail
Turkey knows it cannot rely on Russia & Assad for various reasons
1-Russia has expansionist endeavours
2-Assad will use #Kurds to get back #Afrin-#Jarablus
2/ Despite current #US sanctions on #Turkey, Turkey is in check if not checkmate.
It knows it cant trust Assad not to use #Kurds in case of reconciliation to re-gain territory from #Afrin to #Jarablus
3/ #Turkey's options is to "swallow the razor" and side with #US to halfway control #Kurds from attacking it. On the other side, US will not allow Turkey to attack #SDF in SDF areas.
Our partner force in #Syria, the #SDF/#PKK is further formalizing its close relationship with the #Asad/#Iran system and mulling joint offensive operations against a #NATO member. So that's all going well. reut.rs/2LD074A
As @Reuters notes: our partner in #Syria, the #SDF/#PKK, a paragon of liberalism and Western values, "indefinitely postponed" the final stage of an election that was already a Soviet-style sham, excluding thousands of Arabs and run under conditions of suffocating autocracy.
Be interesting to see if the U.S. responds publicly to the #SDF/#PKK's suggestion it will help in #Asad-#Iran-#Russia's proposed campaign of mass-slaughter in Idlib and in joint attacks on NATO's #Turkey.
One highly doubts it; the PKK has literally got away with murder so far.
Michael Dempsey argues that after the pro-Asad forces roll over Deraa, Idlib is next, and then comes the east, against the U.S. partner, the #SDF/#PKK, unless the U.S. does some creative thinking and stays invested. <Some comments below> warontherocks.com/2018/07/what-d…
I am not sure that #Turkey will stand aside in Idlib. Dempsey is right that the Turks' presence is "limited" but as a military-political matter (calling it a "red line", coping with an influx of 2m refugees plus terrorists, space it gives to PKK) Ankara needs to hold its ground.
On the Asad Alliance side, yes, if Asad/Iran decide to attack #Idlib, Russia can do nothing and will join in. Even so, assuming Turkey does not fold, it's not clear the regime coalition has the capacity for this offensive. Perhaps it does, but that shouldn't be an assumption.
A group calling itself "The Committee of Peaceful movement in #Raqqa" called for a peaceful uprising against the Kurdish-led #SDF. The statement demanded the Syrian Democratic Forces to leave the city and hand it over to its people.
Clashes have broken out between the “#Raqqa Revolutionary Brigade” and the Kurdish-led #SDF in the northern suburbs of Raqqa, northern #Syria.
The Kurdish #YPG component of the #SDF have besieged the HQ of the #FSA “Raqqa Revolutionaries Brigade” and clashed with them at several points. They have called upon the people of #Raqqa to go out and demonstrate immediately against these militias and their actions.
My critique has always been about the imbalance/s created in northern #Syria by U.S. counter-#ISIS policy.
The #YPG was/is the #PKK - all U.S. officials admit that in private. That didn’t necessarily have to preclude working with them, but ignoring it caused big, big problems.
#pt: As an analyst of terrorist groups, I did see a certain irony & short-sightedness in the words of one top, serving U.S. official, “allying with a terrorist group (#PKK) to fight another terrorist group (#ISIS).”
It’s got nothing to do with any position on #Kurds, whatsoever.
#Assad on the #SDF: we share much in common, including profound mistrust of the Americans, we are going to negotiate with the SDF, if no negotiations, we are going to liberate by force, with or without the Americans in the picture (around min 12)
#Assad: #Israel is panicking because it lost its dear ones, #alQaeda/#Nusra. Both targeted our air defenses, Israel & #US inflicted some loss, but thanks to #Russia, the situation is getting better. Recent attacks by the Americans, English and French prove this point.
@LizSly does not accurately state what Assad said. Readers must be careful to note that Assad never said America "will be expelled by force". These are the words of Liz and not Assad (hence they don't have quotation marks). The use of force wording was directed at #SDF ==> More=>
2-Assad: If the first option of negotiations with #SDF does not work, "we are going to resort to liberating those areas by force. With Americans or without Americans, We don't have any other option. This is our land. It is our right. it is out duty to liberate" ==>
3-Assad: “The Americans should leave, somehow they're going to leave. They came to Iraq with no legal basis, and look what happened to them. They have to learn the lesson. Iraq is no exception, and Syria is no exception. People will not accept foreigners in this region anymore”=>
⚡️⚡️⚡️#SDF reported to prepare for redeploying their forces from mostly Arabian cities of #Manbij, #Raqqa and #Tabqa. The decision was taken 4 day ago in talks with Gulf representatives in Ain Issa. The Saudi and Emirates occupation of #Syria's East will replace the #US one
BREAKING: The White House has said that US President #Trump is canceling his upcoming South America trip to remain in the US "to oversee the American response to Syria." - @NBCNews
This sounds like the US is planning to strike #Syria and Trump will remain in the US to closely monitor responses by #Russia. This is terrible.
BREAKING - British forces are now mobilizing at their bases in #Cyprus for strikes against #Syria. It appears very likely that the US, France and U.K. will strike Syria in the next 24 hours. This is dreadful.
2. The author also says U.S should “cut a deal” w. #Erdogan, in which “the #YPG will sever all support for the #PKK” … [despite the vast majority of #PYD/YPG leadership being long-time PKK/KCK veterans.]
Speak to anyone who regularly visits #SDF in NE - PKK calls the shots.
3. The author also links recent pictures of #Aleppo’s public park to compare “2016 charnel house” to 2018 "civilians strolling through its rebuilt public park.”
Except the park sat in regime-held territory & was barely touched in 4yrs of war. How does conquered east Aleppo look?
#Iran / #Syria Thread: Key to understanding this topic is to appreciate how perceptions matter just as much reality. Similarly, the political angle of this topic also matters just as much, if not more, than the empirical & Intel-based facts related to this subject matter =>
2-As early as Dec 2016, some of us warned here (see thread below) that @realDonaldTrump Admin was likely to take an anti-Iran tilt & make it a pillar of its regional strategy. The Admin was also expected to be more Pro-Israel than its predecessors. Both turned out to be right =>
3-In order to understand what the U.S. is currently doing in #Syria , one needs to understand what the U.S. couldn't possibly do politically once the mission of ISIS's "annihilation" was complete. So, why didn't @realDonaldTrump do his own "mission accomplished" and leave? =>
#SRO| IMPORTANT - #US seems to consider that Euphrates limit agreement (between #SDF and regime) must be applied completely : under aircover, #Deir_Ezzor military council took over Tabiyah from regime. First time #USAF giving air support for an offensive against regime (1).
#SRO | IMPORTANT - By taking over Tabiyah, #SDF now only 15 km east to #DeZ gates. #Deir_Ezzor military council always considered all areas north and east to Deir Ezzor are parts of their own legitimacy to govern. But very strange move as #US giving them support for these claims.
#SRO| IMPORTANT - Main problem is that #Deir_Ezzor Military Council (#SDF backed and linked) also consider... #Deir_Ezzor city as part of their areas to govern... But #US will never accept a complete war about Deir Ezzor. They want to show they can help but not so much...
I agree with @MoonofA, something is not adding up that the #US is telling the world.
It seems possible pro-SAA militias/Wagner made a deal with Arab elements of #SDF to swap control of Conoco field.
I personally think #US did not lay trap.. moonofalabama.org/2018/02/syria-…
I think #US was actually unaware until late that Arab elements want to be under Syrian flag again (not unthinkable, Tribal fighters of same tribes are under #SAA and #SDF flags).
US had no idea deal was made, until militias/Wagner start to move to Conoco.
This would explain why militias/Wagner was moving in without any airsupport or anti-air cover: they asumed all was arranged for safe passage to Conoco.
Note that Conoco also had some Russian mediators stationed there just after #SDF had captured it.
#SRO - What happened in Kusham area is the first real and strong #US action to protect its interests, the #SDF and its military advisors... Be sure this will reinforce #SDF recuitment policy and popularity... (1)
#SRO - Since weeks, as #Afrin offensive began and since #US administration thretened to cut support of clashes against #Turkey, recruitment for #SDF ranks was decreasing seriously (it was clear for #Raqqa governorate and #Manbij area) (2).
#SRO - #US intervention to strike a regime offensive, killing dozens and destroying dozen tanks, isn't about to erase #US stance on #Afrin, but population in Northern Federation to consider their ally with another point of view : yes, #US can be a good ally when needed... (END).