Ben See Profile picture
Aug 20, 2019 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The 'Good' news: There's a 95% chance that catastrophic climate breakdown WON'T kill 9 billion people by 2045.

The Bad news: There's a 95% chance* that it WILL kill 10 billion people by 2095.


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*👇[THREAD]
*if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario (which looks increasingly likely because of Nature's own feedback emissions from permafrost & rainforest collapse etc not properly included in scientific models)
👇

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The planet would support less than a billion humans at 4°C (see above👆)

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century".independent.co.uk/environment/gl…
Projected population by 2050 - 9.7 billion.

Projected population by 2100 - 10.9 billion.

(These projections don't take into account catastrophic climate breakdown which threatens to kill billions within decades without total transformation of human political-economic systems.)

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More from @ClimateBen

Apr 6
BREAKING: staggered climate scientists warn anything is now possible (and they mean anything) after the biggest jump in temperature ever recorded anywhere on Earth occurs in the Antarctic
1. "if we had a 40C rise in the UK now.. that would be deadly for the population.”

Glaciologist Prof Martin Siegert, of the University of Exeter: “No one in our community thought that anything like this could ever happen."

“It is simply mind-boggling”

dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…
2. Capitalism means rapid mass extinction via biodiversity annihilation. Corporations have locked in the destruction of the planet as we knew it. Abrupt climate change is just one compounding factor in extinction catastrophe. Change this Extinction Economy.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 5
BREAKING: IPCC scientist reveals it's actually been years since their models first indicated the catastrophic global warming acceleration now happening was to be expected 🧵
1. The IPCC is still silent on it's own findings

a) models show the current catastrophic global warming acceleration of the 2020s was to be expected

Why wasn't this communicated back in 2018- 2022?


b) emissions should've peaked by ~2022 to avoid 3/3.5°Ccarbonbrief.org/factcheck-why-…
2. 'To keep global temperatures below 1.5C, 2C or even 2.5C, emissions must peak before 2025'

The IPCC still hasn't communicated this. It seems this is true for 3°C, too. Virtually the only mass media article that explained the situation back in 2022:
france24.com/en/environment…
Read 11 tweets
Apr 3
BREAKING: climate scientists confirm catastrophic accelerated warming set to hit this decade 🧵
1. 'we may expect an accelerated surface temperature warming in this decade'

'a positive EEI confirms the lag of the climate system in responding to forcing and implies that additional global warming will take place even without further forcing changes"
nature.com/articles/s4324…
Read 5 tweets
Apr 3
BREAKING: scientific community begins to confront widespread denial with team of distinguished scientists publishing a paper explicitly stating exploitative wealth-oriented capitalism must be replaced immediately as the extinction of 32- 70% of Earth's species in decades looms🧵
1/'a critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice'

* increasing clarity on mandatory economic change

* flaws on carrying capacity
academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/arti…
2/ The recent research cited in the paper agrees with previous studies showing that up to 40- 70% of species risk extinction.

Read 8 tweets
Mar 28
BREAKING: as Earth's major forests begin to collapse a new report shows 95% of companies behind catastrophic rapid industrial-scale deforestation have failed to take meaningful action since pledging to stop the destruction 10 years ago with a 2025 tipping point deadline looming🧵
1. Rainforests in SE Asia have hit tipping points. 20- 26% of the Amazon Rainforest is in a state of collapse

"The tipping point is not a future scenario but rather a stage already present"

Savannization is already taking place in both Brazil and Bolivia.commondreams.org/news/2022/09/0…
2. Climate scientist and Amazon Rainforest expert Carlos Nobre warns that deforestation across the whole of the Amazon must end by next year.

Read 7 tweets
Mar 23
“..a system can collapse in the sense of massive extinction in relatively short time.. even a slow parameter change can suddenly lead to a system collapse with catastrophic consequences.”

Prepare to avoid future disasters or mitigate their effects? 🧵

sciencesprings.wordpress.com/2023/12/19/fro…
1a. 'Human activities are having increasingly negative impacts on natural systems, and it is of interest to understand how the “pace” of parameter change may lead to catastrophic consequences.' pnas.org/doi/full/10.10…
1b. 'to avoid climate-change-induced species extinction, it would be necessary to ensure that no parameters change with time, and this may pose an extremely significant challenge in our efforts to protect and preserve the natural environment.' pnas.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 4 tweets

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