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Whoa, here some of the ill-informed judgments supporting Boris's mad strategy briefingsforbrexit.com/the-eu-will-re…
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Paul Sheard, a markets guy, argues the EU will reopen talks with the new PM (who was not elected) undoing the deal they struck with the old PM (who was elected) since...
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1) "The EU has no grounds to refuse to negotiate with the UK"
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Well actually the UK agreed to "no-renegotiation when it asked for the last extension" so yes the EU has grounds. euronews.com/2019/04/11/bre…
| @HKS_BizGov
2)"faced with a choice between a modified Withdrawal Agreement and a no-deal Brexit, the EU would choose a modified Withdrawal Agreement"
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Actually the EU has been clear about its preferences since 2016; that's why it forced agreement on the WA *before* discussing the future
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"the European political timetable puts particular pressure on the EU to reach agreement with the UK"
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This misunderstands EU leaders priorities and flexibility. The WA attracted unanimous EU leader approval; changes in Tory internal politics is not enough to change that.
_JFYI: from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Shea…
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"Prior to entering financial markets in 1995, he was an academic economist based in Australia, Japan and the United States, specializing in the Japanese economy and the economics of firm organization."
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2. But 60% of ratio fall from peak due to Commodity Supercycle triggered by globalisation's 2nd unbundling
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Manuf trade declined somewhat - and certainly stopped booming
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left chart shows commodity composition of overall ratio into manuf, mining, ag
3. 2008=False Peak: turns out national export/GDP ratios of Big-4 (EU, CN, US, JP) peaked before or after 2008, or didn't peak
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ERGO, 2008 peak = artefact of aggregating disparate trends; oops for claims of peak as death knell of neoliberal globalisation; it changed, not died
1. Why fear of opening?
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ordering elderly to vaccinate might led to “dramatic social resistance”
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“They don’t want to force a vaccine mandate [but] they can’t afford old people dying”
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“that is why stringent Covid controls are still in place” on.ft.com/3V5Ifjf
2. Fears are founded:
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China's ICU capacity is lower than in many Asian countries
3. 30% of old not taken a third Covid jab
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main Chinese-made vaccines provide high protection from severe illness and death with 3 doses. But they are less effective & fade faster than the mRNA technology developed by BioNTech/Pfizer & Moderna”
2/Rampant, within rich-nation inequality was always an American/Anglo-Saxon story
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Other rich nations bridled the rise of their 1%
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Booming American inequality started with globalisation’s 2nd unbundling (manuf offshoring expansion phase) hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?is…
3/ Automation & globalisation drove market income inequality everywhere, but Europeans used sharing & caring policies to share the gains & pains (US not so much)
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Gini coefficient chart👇
“Economic orthodoxy is not ideological but simply the accumulated knowledge &experience of what tends to work best
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“It is .a constantly evolving body of thinking &experimenting in the real world
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“It is always open to challenge”
• @ChrisGiles_ on.ft.com/3renqov
“We have had a consensus of the Treasury, of economists, with the Financial Times, with other outlets, peddling a particular type of economic policy for 20 years. It hasn’t delivered growth,” #Truss said
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Lessons for when economic orthodoxy bites back on.ft.com/3renqov
“There is no doubt that the orthodoxy can get things wrong. But it learns from its mistakes. Far from every element of the “Washington consensus” — the economic orthodoxy of the 1990s — survived the Asian financial crisis in the latter part of that decade.
“Prioritising growth in the recent past would have avoided some obvious policy blunders:
👉May’s insistence on leaving the EU’s single market
👉Osborne’s disastrous obsession with balancing the budget in the teeth of a deep recession” @TimHarfordon.ft.com/3y3nZFc
“But while recent governments have demonstrated how to depress growth, we know far less about how to increase it. And Truss’s statements so far do not inspire confidence.”
“It is good to have a prime minister focused on the goal of growth, but what we really need is for her to show signs of being able to stick the ball in the back of the net.” #Truss#Growth