1. Short 🧵on my talk: "Future of trade is intermediate services" | 9 Dec 2022, 18-19h, IHEID (register:docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…) @GVAGrad @AlumniIHEID @_AnabelG @_CTEI @DmitryOpines @GTP_Trade
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👉Start with the "peak trade in goods" chart👇 2. But 60% of ratio fall from peak due to Commodity Supercycle triggered by globalisation's 2nd unbundling
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Manuf trade declined somewhat - and certainly stopped booming
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left chart shows commodity composition of overall ratio into manuf, mining, ag

1. Why fear of opening?
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ordering elderly to vaccinate might led to “dramatic social resistance”
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“They don’t want to force a vaccine mandate [but] they can’t afford old people dying”
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“that is why stringent Covid controls are still in place”
on.ft.com/3V5Ifjf 2. Fears are founded:
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China's ICU capacity is lower than in many Asian countries

1/ Globalisation drives inequality? It’s complicated
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A 🧵 based on @ft article by @ChrisGiles_ & research by @BrankoMilan etal
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👉on.ft.com/3V2Ftva
👉osf.io/preprints/soca… 2/Rampant, within rich-nation inequality was always an American/Anglo-Saxon story
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Other rich nations bridled the rise of their 1%
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Booming American inequality started with globalisation’s 2nd unbundling (manuf offshoring expansion phase) hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?is…

The gas crunch & the hit to EU industry
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@FT
Will the energy crisis crush European industry? on.ft.com/3TvpHaJ
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Charts in🧵👇 Industry uses more gas than other forms of energy

“Economic orthodoxy is not ideological but simply the accumulated knowledge &experience of what tends to work best
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“It is .a constantly evolving body of thinking &experimenting in the real world
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“It is always open to challenge”
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@ChrisGiles_
on.ft.com/3renqov “We have had a consensus of the Treasury, of economists, with the Financial Times, with other outlets, peddling a particular type of economic policy for 20 years. It hasn’t delivered growth,” #Truss said
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Lessons for when economic orthodoxy bites back on.ft.com/3renqov

“Prioritising growth in the recent past would have avoided some obvious policy blunders:
👉May’s insistence on leaving the EU’s single market
👉Osborne’s disastrous obsession with balancing the budget in the teeth of a deep recession” @TimHarford on.ft.com/3y3nZFc “But while recent governments have demonstrated how to depress growth, we know far less about how to increase it. And Truss’s statements so far do not inspire confidence.”

“economy is exhibiting comorbidities of a badly botched Brexit that weakened resistance to shocks. When markets were spooked last week, little could reassure them” @robertshrimsley
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Brexit ideology lies behind the UK’s market rout on.ft.com/3Chp9Qg
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Zingers in🧵 “The desperate pursuit of unorthodox growth strategies was driven in part by the 4 per cent hit to productivity over 15 years that has been consistently ascribed to the Brexit deal” @robertshrimsley

Great spy novel premise
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Maybe the target was the new Norwegian pipeline & they mistakenly hit Nord Stream 2? Nord Stream 1 hit was to confuse motives theguardian.com/world/2022/sep… Spy novel plot thickens
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“The incidents took place close to – but just outside – the 12-mile territorial waters of Denmark’s Bornholm in the Baltic Sea, the kind of calibration that might be expected from a state actor mindful of the country’s Nato membership”

Icymi
Former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev:
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‘I don’t buy this talk that Putin cannot back down’
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Snippets in 🧵👇
on.ft.com/3JDleyx “I don’t buy all this talk that he cannot back down. For [Joe] Biden, [Boris] Johnson, the western politicians, backing down means you will lose public opinion.”
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Putin does not have this worry.

Rundown & analysis by @ChrisGiles_ Charts in 🧵👇
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on.ft.com/3ijv7VV Energy price shocks

Charts in 🧵👇
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@ChrisGiles_
Inflation: is now the time to get worried? on.ft.com/3FtURsf Scales are different but trends are the same #inflation

The Brexit stand-off: Boris Johnson’s Christmas truce ft.com/content/4678cf… @FT #Brexit “UK government insiders said the meeting marked a significant shift in approach”

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IMHO we should not use PPP-adjusted figures to compare size of national GDPs
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For size what matters is int’l purchasing power of nations - not the domestic purchasing power
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PPP is good for per capita GDP as a welfare measure (utility=consumption) on.ft.com/36D3aD7 _
That’s better @martinwolf_

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Gary Gereffi (Dr. GVC): Case study of GVCs resilience, and C19
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"On balance, the U.S. shortage of N95 respirators during the COVID-19 pandemic is more a policy failure than a
market failure"
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More snippets and reference 👉 _
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a dramatic shortage in the medical supplies due to a massive surge in demand as the disease circled the globe during the first half of 2020
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Prior to the crisis, there was an interdependence of trade and production for medical supplies,

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In person at the Graduate Institute for Opening Plenary of the GENEVA TRADE WEEK!!! #GTW2020 _
Swiss WTO Ambassador Chambovey speaking introductory words

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Testing delays or a critical part of the problem
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“We’ve had plenty of time to get this right,” Scott Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration told CBS News earlier this week”
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American testing delays - Q&A on.ft.com/2X2jhFB _
What’s causing the delays?
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“Roughly 5.5m Americans are being tested each week but LabCorp and Quest are only able to process 265,000 tests a day. They have plans to expand their combined capacity to 300,000 by the end of this month”

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How will it work?
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EU recovery fund
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Free to read via @FT
on.ft.com/3fLWtRy _
“The core grants component of the recovery effort was reduced to €390bn, considerably less than the €500bn recommended by the commission”
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“landmark agreement gives Brussels unprecedented power to borrow on the markets and hand it out as budgetary support to member states”

_ via FT
“Edward Glaeser says millennials in the US look at the free healthcare for seniors under Medicare and tax breaks on mortgages and see a form of “boomer socialism” that excludes them”
👉on.ft.com/3gEcb1e _
“Pew Research considers anyone born between 1981 and 1996 to be a millennial”
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“Talking about millennials as a whole group oftentimes gets headlines” says Ms Kent. “But it’s the subgroups — minorities, blacks and Hispanics, particularly women — that are really struggling.”

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@gideonrachman
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Could C19 kill off fact-free populism?
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“Populists hate to be unpopular
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That is why they have proved so bad at handling Covid-19 - a crisis that brings nothing but grim news — death, economic destruction &curtailed freedoms”
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on.ft.com/2BSybpQ _
“The distinguishing characteristic of the Trump-Bolsonaro approach to Covid-19 is a fatal inability to face reality”
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Bolsonaro has been even more flamboyantly irresponsible — dismissing Covid19 as a mere sniffle, addressing anti-lockdown protests &ousting 2health ministers

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NYTimes is really pushing the curve on using animated graphics to make online reading better than reading the paper newspaper
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e.g. 👉 nytimes.com/interactive/20… _
Reads like rough draft of a Hollywood movie

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“Trump’s twisted and utterly transactional relationship with America’s armed forces is a bigger insult than that”
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“For all his lip service to military service, his actions reveal a crude take on those who perform it” nytimes.com/2020/06/15/opi… _
“repudiation — of him by people in the armed services, their leaders and veterans”
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“Some are finally coming around to a cleareyed view of a corrupt president”
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“Others are venting a distaste for Trump that they’d previously downplayed or kept to themselves”