Bitcoin bubble tops are clearly identified with a dark red cluster of Adjusted Binary BDD. Until that happens, we're not at the top. Public opinion is key here because that red cluster is caused by the assumption of the crowd and is self-fulfilling (reflexivity).
In fact, recently there's been quite a bit of accumulation (or what you might call dormancy, a lack of 'destruction'). A few people are always going to take short-term profits, but that's to be expected in any market.
If we zoom out and think about the long-term, our current level of Reserve Risk is equivalent to where we were in the early part of 2017. If you recall that was right BEFORE things got really crazy and 6-9 months before the bubble burst (BTC was around $1-$2k at the time).
In addition to all this, Crypto Fear & Greed is printing all time lows (extreme fear). That's the exact thing you should be looking for if you're buying the dip for the long-term.
If you're not sure what I'm talking about with the Bitcoin Days Destroyed, you might find this article helpful.
After reading @FriskyFoxDK's latest announcement in the DFK Discord I still believe the optimal strategy for capital allocators is to participate in the gardens, bank, and questing. Depending on stack size and liquidity I recommend gardens -> bank -> heroes in that order.
If you might need your capital right away, I would just start with the bank because there's no penalty on withdrawing whenever you want. If you don't mind being allocated for a month or more, the gardens are a great place to collect rewards.
If you're slightly more well capitalized and thinking long-term, heroes are the next logical step to juice your rewards and they actually provide a bit of a hedge against price fluctuations (jewel up, hero price in jewel down and vice verse).
There is a game that's relatively unknown right now called DeFi Kingdoms. I have been doing a deep-dive on this project over the last month and I have found it to be massively compelling for the following reasons.
1. It's properly positioned for the Metaverse mega-trend.
2. The total addressable market is huge, and this project is growing very quickly. I expect this to continue due to the fact that the team behind the game are executing on a very bold vision and hitting it out of the park. 3. The community is strong and growing fast
This month in #Bitcoin
- China boots miners out for real this time; hash power drop spooks market as miners relocate
- @Hut8Mining buys enough equipment to double their hash rate
- Bitcoin mempool remains operational despite a 50% drop in hash power
- Puell multiple hits green levels
- Michael Saylor buys another $600mm of BTC
- Taproot activation locked in for November
- El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as national currency and announces plans to mine Bitcoin using green power from a volcano
This month in Macro Fiscal/Monetary land
- ECB hasn’t raised rates in 10 years
- Fed has “muzzled the market” - Druckenmiller
- Stonks mooning like altcoins (AMC for example, larger than half the S&P up 70x this year)
- M2 increases 22% over the trailing year setting new record
Ok, here we go. It's time for another mega-thread on #Bitcoin, energy consumption, and net value for society. First of all, realize that all judgements of this sort come down to values. What do you value? What's important to you? Secondly, what does the data show? 🧵👇
I can tell you what I value. I care about human rights and global inequity. Bitcoin is one of the most potent technologies we've ever seen for protecting human rights. @gladstein
Bitcoin miners and their mining pools (1 hop and 0 hop essentially) still have a lot of supply. But as you can see, the long-term trend is downward for their stockpile.