Hans HODL Profile picture
Head of Quant Strategy @Ikigai_fund #Bitcoin
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9 Nov
The amount of #Bitcoin on exchanges has fallen dramatically this year.

Source: network-charts.coinmetrics.io
At the same time M2 is growing like a weed.

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2
Bitcoin miners and their mining pools (1 hop and 0 hop essentially) still have a lot of supply. But as you can see, the long-term trend is downward for their stockpile.

Source: network-charts.coinmetrics.io
Read 5 tweets
17 Oct
This is the best article I've read in... I don't know how long. But I understand your time is limited so here are the CliffNotes. And of course, we're talking #Bitcoin, Federal Reserve and @JeffSnider_AIP (plus bonus content at the end).

Source: realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/…
Jeff Snider (Head of Global Research at Alhambra Partners.) is the world's leading expert on the Fed (imho). He's been on the @MacroVoices, published a series called Eurodollar University and a show on YouTube called "Making Sense."

In this article he argues that "Decentralized Money Is the Future." Going back to the invention of the printing press, it was decentralizing knowledge in an accurate way that created a tidal wave of change across the world, long before the information superhighway.
Read 18 tweets
15 Oct
Interesting comments from @RaoulGMI on #Bitcoin in 2025. I have a few thoughts of my own, too.

news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-price-…
Let's talk about narrative economics. A lot of people think that for #Bitcoin to succeed, the US Dollar has to fail. But that's just a story. A lot can happen along the way, and what about second-order effects?
One plausible outcome is that bearish USD folks latch onto a narrative, which boosts #Bitcoin. But then something changes in the market. Maybe inflation starts to spike and we finally think "wow, we should balance the budget" and then elect a bunch of deficit hawks?
Read 13 tweets
5 Oct
Why is #Bitcoin the future? Let me paint a picture for you.

The national debt is not only growing at an alarming rate, it's growing faster than GDP.
Taken by itself, we might be ok if we didn't have the "twin deficit" problem.
The USA is also suffering from what's called the Triffin's Dilema. We have to supply dollars to the rest of the world, or else wee will suffocate the global economy.
Read 17 tweets
24 Sep
The number of #Bitcoin active addresses per day has been growing steadily since the bottom of the market in 2018. Here you can see the 90d moving average. The floor is slowly being raised.

H/T @coinmetrics Image
In order to put this into perspective, consider this chart in linear scale. It should be apparent that if this trend continues this figure will surpass the ATH very soon. Image
If you're wondering why this matters, consider that the value of Bitcoin is derived (at a high level) from the network. The larger the network, the more useful and valuable Bitcoin becomes. Sprinkle on some QE infinity, and wait for the fireworks.

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL Image
Read 4 tweets
17 Sep
Be careful about assuming that the long-term impact of Covid-19 will be minimal (v-shaped recovery). We've never had so many dislocated workers. Even now the figures are greater than any other point in history. Image
Why isn't there blood in the streets? Well if you can't make your house payment then why not just punt the payments out six months? Still in trouble? How about another six months? Kicking the can has to end at some point. It's all a house of cards.
It should be obvious that digital currencies are the future by now. Prepare yourself for whatever comes next with an allocation to #Bitcoin. Image
Read 4 tweets
31 Jul
Does anyone else think the way we're responding to Covid-19 in the USA might actually be worse than the virus itself?
Don't get me wrong, COVID is real and yes we need to respond to the threat it poses. But let's look at what's actually going on. Recently walked to Starbucks for a coffee, wanted to wash my hands - bathroom closed to due to covid. But wait a minute...
When I walked in I touched the door handle, and then I touched a piece of merchandise (a coffee mug) and nobody rushed out to wipe them down with a cleaning solution. Number one recommendation of CDC, wash hands... 🤔🤔
Read 7 tweets
11 Jul
Please take a moment to consider the importance of the Bitcoin Development Fund being run by @HRF and @gladstein, who has become the moral center of the #Bitcoin universe.

hrf.org/programs_posts…
Bitcoin is one of the most powerful tools for the protection human rights in this digital age. All money is becoming digital, it's just a question of which digital money will dominate. Will it be a state-controlled, privacy-invading fiat, or Bitcoin?
We must not take Bitcoin for granted. The wolf is always at the door. Bitcoin needs continuous improvement in scalability, privacy, security, and usability to reach mass adoption. If the only sponsors of dev work are large corporations, we will be doing ourselves a disservice.
Read 4 tweets
2 Jun
In case you missed it, I published "Whales and Retail" as part of the Kana and Katana monthly update. This novel approach suggests that whales are more likely to be trend following, while retailers tend to be value investors.

kanaandkatana.com/blog/may-2020-…
The approach uses network data and exchange flows to segment different market participants into "whales" and "retailers." Using Wyckoff we can make some guesses about how these two groups attempt to make the best of each other. Image
Another interesting observation is that market bottoms tend to happen near the "bottoming signature" which is what happens when both whales and retail accumulate #bitcoin at the same time, causing a supply shortage on exchanges where price discovery happens.
Read 4 tweets
27 Mar
Right now the world is changing so quickly, that it's becoming nearly impossible to keep up. I have a theory as to why, but first let's look at some charts with data from @JeffSnider_AIP @100trillionUSD @nic__carter @stlouisfed and @lisaabramowicz1 (@business).
First things first - we were not in a great place before this pandemic. This is true in the USA and globally. Here we see that GDP in Europe has been in decline since 2017.

Source: macrovoices.com/guest-content/…
Over the last 10 years, the rate of GDP growth in China has fallen by 50%.

Source: tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-grow…
Read 21 tweets
25 Mar
I have to say this about "Fear Mongering" and "Making decisions based on fear." This has become a catch-all phrase that is intended to discredit the person who dared to let "fear" run them or spread this to others. You do realize fear is why we survived as a species?
Consider this. What stops you from walking out into traffic? Pretend for a moment there is traffic... bear with me here. I hope it's the "fear" of being crushed by a car which is actually completely rational. Why do we look left, look right, then cross the road?
Even if there's no car directly in front of me I can determine that if a vehicle is heading towards where I WILL BE, then I shouldn't try to cross the road right now. When we see a trend, like a moving car or spreading disease, we attempt to avoid a terrible outcome.
Read 10 tweets
17 Mar
In light of my recent poll results, I'll be shilling the #Bitcoin price today and talking a bit about why the dollar is doomed.

While it's clear that speculation is one of the primary use cases of Bitcoin, I still hold that there is underlying value. At some point, there has to be or how do you attract smart people and get them to write code for free? How do you get anyone interested in the first place?
To that end, I've been writing about Bitcoin Valuation Models for a while now as have many others. Let's just touch on some of the interesting work that's out there and see where we are now.

Bitcoin Realized Value - @nic__carter
Source: coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…
Read 22 tweets
9 Mar
"It came out of nowhere, who could have seen this coming?"

Source: public.tableau.com/profile/kuldee… Image
Oh right, the people who were called alarmist back in January.



I'm not gloating, I just want to make it clear that nothing good comes from pretending that risks are zero.
If you ever doubted that we needed a replacement for our current financial system and that Bitcoin could be even a part of the solution, today's the day to "Come to Satoshi."

#Bitcoin
Read 4 tweets
6 Mar
OMG, look at the 10-year right now.

marketwatch.com/investing/bond… Image
Meanwhile, the market is pricing in ANOTHER 75 BIPS cut on March 18th. Got #Bitcoin?

cmegroup.com/trading/intere… Image
Oil is breaking down... when are people going to wake up?

Read 7 tweets
23 Feb
Coronavirus cases outside the USA were doubling every 7 days, then 6, now it's down to 5 days. Brace for impact.

Great video here:

@chrismartenson Image
@chrismartenson Typo - I said "outside the USA" but what I meant was "outside mainland China"
@chrismartenson Infected count in S. Korea has doubled every day since the 18th. From 31 to 433 in four days. Image
Read 5 tweets
22 Feb
Welcome to the Fourth Turning. At this time, we have entered the "crisis stage" as defined by the generational shift currently in progress. Boomers are retiring, handing the reins to Gen-X, and Millennials are entering their wage-earning years. Let's look at some data.
First, let's talk about home prices and wages. Between 1974 and 2018, real personal income has increased by 37%. However, median home prices have increased by 768%.

Source: Fred
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINU…
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
Between the years 1974 and 2018, debt to GDP increased from 30% to 105%.

Source: Fred
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ…
Read 20 tweets
25 Jan
I predict that some time in the next ten years, a single Bitcoin will exceed the price of a median single-family home in the United States. According to Zillow, that price right now is $236,900.

zillow.com/home-values/
Brush this off, or let me explain how and why it will happen. It all started in 1944 with the Bretton Woods System. Countries abandoned the gold standard for the dollar standard, but the USD was still redeemable for gold.

thebalance.com/bretton-woods-…
But, this agreement wasn't to last because the US government wasn't responsible with its money supply (sound familiar?). So, in 1971 Nixon took us "temporarily" off the gold standard. Watch.

Read 20 tweets
22 Jan
My name is Hans HODL, and I approve of this message.
This is one thing that grates on me. If you're a Bitcoin thought leader these days it's all about the SoV narrative. Don't box yourself in. With LN, Bitcoin can be both an SoV and an MoE.
Imagine the greatest method of exchange in the world. It would have to be super fast, secure, and anonymous. Now imagine the greatest store of value in the world. It would have to be secure, scarce, accepted globally and not controlled by a central party. All roads lead to BTC.
Read 5 tweets
14 Dec 19
Everyone has their own set of reasons for being involved in Bitcoin. These reasons are important, because what you believe will determine how you see the world and yourself. Here's what I know.

Our rights are under fire around the world and Bitcoin can help. Come with me.
Friendly reminder here - the US government has a tap into the fiber backbone of the internet. I guess have to settle for "free speech as long as Uncle Sam can listen in."

zdnet.com/article/prism-…
In 1838, Abraham Lincoln gave the Lyceum Address, in which he warns against the rise of authoritarian leaders, “it will require the people to be united with each other, attached to the government and laws, and generally intelligent, to successfully frustrate his designs.”
Read 20 tweets
6 Dec 19
Good morning, Bitcoiners! How have you been? In need of some holiday cheer?

Here's @ahkyee, a director at Visa sharing a report from @DeutscheBank on some wild predictions (including Bitcoin) for 2030. Do I have your attention yet?

Image
The CEO of @Bakkt is now a US Senator.

coindesk.com/georgia-govern…
If you take the total number of Bitcoin transactions ever confirmed and use that as an input into a log-scale linear regression model, we learn two things 1) Bitcoin is still alive 2) the price is actually pretty close to where it should be. Image
Read 8 tweets
6 Nov 19
Let's start with the problem set laid out by @RayDalio in this post.

linkedin.com/pulse/world-ha…

1. There's too much money.

"Money is free for those who are creditworthy because the investors who are giving it to them are willing to get back less than they give."
2. This extra money is acting like a hidden tax on growth rather than creating inflation.

"As a result of this dynamic, the prices of financial assets have gone way up and the future expected returns have gone way down while economic growth and inflation remain sluggish."
3. Because we can't seem to balance our federal budget we will end up printing money to pay our bills.

"large government deficits exist and will almost certainly increase substantially... central banks, (will) buy the debt that is produced with freshly printed money"
Read 21 tweets