From a broker this morning: "The Case for Egyptian Equities: Our Egyptian coverage is trading at 8.9x 12-month forward earnings, with a 2019-21 EPS CAGR of 20% [...], with a market cap weighted upside of 39%. Egypt’s discount to EMs is near an all-time high". #Egypt
And similar arguments can be made for most of our investment universe, like #Nigeria#Pakistan etc. But as long as global investors continue to prefer to invest in negative yielding treasuries instead of almost certain growth discounts will remain.
Main question here is how long this irrationality will prevail.
...and to sum it all up in picture:
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1/x Egypt again acts firmly and responsibly to mitigate the negative impact from rising commodity prices and delayed recovery of tourism revenue, putting a strain on current account and budget deficit.
2/x Last week's devaluation of approx 15%, was followed by an interest hike and several measures, including subsidy adjustments, to lessen the impact on the poorer parts of the population.
3/x Since then major support investments, totalling USD 22bn, from UAE, Qatar and now Saudi have been announced.
Thread:
1# The decision by @cenbank to ban many investors from the OMO auctions has had an huge effect on local bond yields, with short term rates almost halved since October.
2# Inflation is sticky at 11-12%, and not expected to come down anytime soon.
3# Equity market in 2019 have been anything but exciting at -10% including dividends and are trading at or close to 10y PEx and PBx lows.