Thread by @swardley

Since I worked in the field in the 90s, I can fairly confidently say that reality has always exceeded our worst predictions on this topic. So, always read any modern climate catastrophe book as "best case scenario" ... it's going to be faster and harder than we can imagine ->

https://twitter.com/edteck/status/1165333915466289153

X : Is it pointless?
Me : No. We can't stop the changes but we can certainly slow and mitigate some of it. This creates two problems. First it require a complete overhaul of society when a few benefit significantly from the past model. Second it needs to be done at speed.

X : Can't we find solutions within the current market system?
Me : What do you think we've been trying to do for almost 30 years? Carbon offset, carbon tax, carbon credits, green investment, green economy, global agreements (Paris accord etc) - it's all failed.

... 30 years of small steps have got us precisely nowhere. The idea that a few incremental steps will make a difference in the time is a mix of inertia and delusion. The kids know this but then they're not suffering from a collective case of Stockholm syndrome.

And you won't be able to make the changes you need without tackling the issue of inequality and all the systems that have driven us to this state. This is no different from when I used to work in and had close friends in the banking / trading sector ...

... I don't know anyone in the banking world that wasn't expecting the market to crash badly way before it happened. Everyone knew the system was unsustainable but no-one cared as long as they got their next bonus. The only surprise about the crash was people didn't get bonuses.

The systems in banking were never fixed, we're building exactly the same problems with CDOs over different forms of debt driven "assets". For all the talk of change, we reverted back to original behaviour ...

30 years of knowing the impact of climate change, 30 years of incremental changes to the economy and we're in the same boat. We know the crash is coming, we're just hoping for that next "bonus" and that somehow things will work out. It's a mass delusion, trapped by the system.

But can it change? To some extent, yes ... there is always an alternative. TINA is one of the greatest lies ever told, up there with trickle down effect etc.

But you need to break yourself out of your current way of thinking -

https://twitter.com/swardley/status/1165001190377238528

X : Will it lead to some form of uprising?
Me : I hope not. Violence tends to lead to future repression and is an instrument of fascism. The better path is ordinary people taking control of the political system by getting involved and quickly. Look to what @aoc achieved.

X : We're screwed.
Me : No, we're not. It's not going to be easy, there will be some impacts because of the damage done but there is always an alternative to the current path.

... however it's perfectly fine to wallow in what is going on, to realise how helpless you feel to change it, to create that desire to want to change it and then get involved. In fact, it's a necessity.

X : What do you think of mass ingestion of psychedelics - bigthink.com/politics-curre…
Me : If you want to release that creative thought process - try getting some sleep, going for long walks, playing games, doing something random i.e listen to music / meditation.

X : How might you think about your privilege re those things?
Me : Excellent point. If you can do these things, then realise your privilege and the responsibility you have to help others who don't have that. There might be an "I" in "Society" but there's also "Everyone Else".

X : Isn't China a major contributor to climate change?
Me : Hmmm. It's probably easier for China to tackle climate change issues than for example the US.
X : Why?
Me : It's cultural at the society level. It's the difference between collectivism (China) vs. individualism (US)

... in China, the market is more of a tool and there is the wider and more important issue of society itself, the greater good. In the US, the market is much more than a tool, it's about the individual, it's more about your position in the game ...

... this is also why the idea of US playing second fiddle to China in the market "game" creates a huge identity crisis / blow to the US psyche.

For China, 2nd in a market game doesn't mean that China thinks less of itself, its identity is much larger than that. In the US ... gosh. When Bill Clinton said "I believe that together we can make America great again" it's a very different concept of together compared to China.

In the US, "together" is often described through concepts of "individual responsibility". I've listened to hour long political speeches on going forward together which mention "I" or "YOU" over 322 times and "WE" only 12 ...

... those concepts of "individual responsibility" are embedded in the US market. It's how it celebrates and judges its own people. "Together" is more a collection of individuals competing against each other and a belief that the competition will get us to where we need to go.

You saw this with @AOC. The incumbent dismissed this "waitress" i.e. judging on the wealth / occupation / success in the market game rather than judging on the person. They just couldn't understand how a social movement based on actual togetherness could threaten them ...

... even after the event, the comments by the past incumbent were mainly "I" - as in "I could have done this" or that. You have to realise that this is in a democracy. It's almost dependent on people doing what they're told to do. It has no answer to social movements.

But whereas the US is dominated by a togetherness based upon "individual" responsibility, China operates on "collective" responsibility. To be brutal, it's just more effective. China will outstrip the current US and if you want solutions to climate change ... look towards China.

X : How is togetherness in the UK after the brexit vote?
Me : Ouch. For 40 years we've been ramming more "individual responsibility" ethos onto a culture with a history of "collective responsibility" (welfare, NHS etc) and then someone opened up that can of worms with a question.

... on the upside, at least it did open up that can of worms. The problems had been building and even accelerating over the last decade. At least we can face them, when people finally stop shouting at each other.

X : People are individualistic, it's a dog eat dog world.
Me : Hmmm. Dogs don't eat dogs. This is more a nature vs nurture question. Evidence points to collectivism as more nature, whilst individualism is more nurture i.e. we learn to be individualistic by constant exposure.

Individualism is more a learned behaviour and it's a very powerful system of control, giving the mass an illusion of freedom through choice whilst depriving them of power. You can get away with it as long as individualistic societies are seen as more successful than collective.

Why do you think there are so many desperate attempts to describe China's success as down to adoption of more neoliberal / individualistic policies. There's a lot of self interest in here.

X : Are you a communist?
Me : No, I take a position of using mixed methods according to the context. I'm in favour of managing the system itself rather than any simple economic dogma. I view the market as a tool not a reason for living. To describe my view ... well, a map helps.

Do remember that these areas are connected. As things evolve (whether physical, process, data, knowledge or even value) to more industrialised forms (commodity, accepted, enshrined in law) they enable higher order systems, the adjacent unexplored to then evolve itself.

In other words, driving components to more efficient commodities enables innovation i.e. standard bricks enables different types of building. Efficiency in one area enables Innovation in another.

Ditto, collectivism in one area can enable more individualism in another.

You have to think of the system as a whole and not get bogged down with dogmatic ideas of individualism or collectivism. You need both and they are both connected.

In the dogmatic forms, they become control mechanism for populations to the advantage of a few. Not very effective.

... well, unless you're the few then that's an effective mechanism of control.

No-one has got this stuff right yet. China (in terms of economic competition) is probably closest today with the Government acting as the world's largest venture capital firm.

X : America is more of a meritocracy whilst China is authoritarian.
Me : Oh dear, you really are tapped by this system. The "American dream" is alive and well but it's living in China - evonomics.com/the-end-of-upw… ...

... in order to have a "meritocracy" then to counter any lack of social mobility you need to have a system that relentlessly searches for talent. This is more apparent in China, in its education and political systems. Of course, inequality exists but it's more geographical.

X : If you like China so much, why don't you live there?
Me : Because I like living in a marsh in England. However, I do think we need to learn lessons from China in particular around how to manage an economy, strategic play and the benefits of collectivism.

X : So why are you against EU?
Me : I'm not against EU, I'm against its neoliberal heart - the EC. That's why I'm a supporter of #DiEM25 and also a supporter of #Brexit.

Malmström, EC Trade Commissioner - “I do not take my mandate from the European people” - well, goodbye then.

X : Wouldn't it be easier to effect change within the EU?
Me : This is like climate change, 30 years of "small steps" going nowhere. Even the former sham of democracy around the EC presidency was thrown away with Ursula von der Leyen - independent.co.uk/news/world/eur… ...

... now, I happen to take a view that Ursula von der Leyen has some very positive credentials but the manner of the appointment does not help.

X : What's with that China graph?
Me : Whoops ... I took the wrong graph i.e.the one form a Quora article discussing mobility, and not the source it led to - quora.com/Is-China-the-n… ... thanks for the spot. Now, where's my edit button?