Thread by @Mij_Europe

So after @BorisJohnson trips to Berlin, Paris & his interventions in Biarritz, where does EU really stand on #Brexit? Outside of the noise, bluster & simplistic takes, things do seem to be moving - though it's unclear what this ultimately means. Short thread on how we see it 1/

https://twitter.com/mij_europe/status/1164888586489085952

As one senior EU official notes: “Before Boris came, our common assessment was that no deal was the baseline. After the trip, I still believe no deal is possible, but I now believe Boris wants a deal. The odds are still more on no deal than deal, but we shouldn’t over-egg it.” 2/

I'll go further. It seems there's even some *sympathy* with Johnson's desire to diverge - “to do things differently” & it seems the PM did manage to impress his German & French counterparts last week 3/

A senior official says: “In terms of substance, it is clear he has dived into the issue far more than people think. The Boris that visited us was serious; the Prime Minister of a big country with a political problem he needs to resolve, well briefed, talking like a statesman.” 4/

The EU isn't under any illusions. They recognise Brexit isn't an end in itself, but one step for Johnson towards a bigger Commons majority. But it's precisely because of this they believe the PM may be able to garner a Commons majority for a deal that so eluded @theresa_may 5/

Senior EU officials believe Johnson’s singular focus on backstop could be intentional to help craft a deal: “In difficult situations, politicians often pick one issue, they say this is where the problem is. If you then get movement on that issue, everything else... 6/

that is problematic goes away, as all the focus has been elsewhere.” On his trips last week, Johnson acknowledged there's a lot in WA he dislikes. However, he also told his EU counterparts *he would stick to the current WA if he got movement on the backstop* 7/

The EU seems ready to engage. One senior EU official argues, “We have previously said we wouldn’t open the WA. Only last week Merkel pointed to the Political Declaration. Now we’re saying we don’t want to change the contents of the WA. There is a slight change… 8/

a genuine commitment to talk.” Another concurs: “We are in for quick changes, but it will take a while for the strategy to change. If there is a deal, it will only come at 5 minutes to midnight.” This slight shift in EU's approach seems motivated by their desire to try for a deal

But also to be ready to avoid the blame in event the effort fails. The important point from the EU’s perspective is that Johnson is now on hook for delivering a proposal - and that UK accusations the EU is unwilling to talk now carry less water 10/

There will now be a process in Brussels. But, EU doesn’t want to create illusion there is now a brand-new negotiation. “We are willing to look at a UK proposal. But it has to fulfil the GFA and the integrity of the Single Market. The Single Market still has to function.” 11/

This, of course, sets bar for progress very high. Even if atmosphere is better, the UK has to deliver a credible solution to Irish border. Also clear that if EU position is to move, it will only “move together with the Irish”. 12/

Besides Boris’ trips last week,3 further developments also potentially create space for a deal 13/

1/ Johnson committed to his German and French counterparts that in many areas “he will remain European” - Iran, global trade and climate change - borne out by his interventions in Biarritz. EU officials say Boris was warned that “if you step on 5 toes of France and Germany” 14/

then the odds of a deal will fall. BJ seems to have got the message. 2/ no deal risk has forced both sides to prepare for worst-case scenario. This necessarily provides some perspective about what a deal could look like without backstop - a long held UK view 15/

As one senior UK official argues, “The work on contingency to see what would happen in no deal will frame the incentives to do a deal now”. 3/ Johnson has clarified the end-state—described by EU as “CETA minus minus”—and in so doing, the fixes that would be needed for border 16/

As Govt is no longer seeking “frictionless trade” with EU or feels bound by the Dec 2017 Joint Report, one solution (unsurprisingly) could be EU’s original Northern Ireland-only backstop with a new internal border in Irish Sea 18/

While some of Johnson’s aides are keen on this idea, however, it’s not clear where Johnson stands on the issue, or many of his senior ministers. The move would also face obvious opposition from DUP, who Boris wants to keep onside 19/

Moreover, after meetings last week, senior EU officials understand that “the backstop has to go for him to sell it.” A time-limit to the backstop—which we've long argued could emerge as a possible compromise between two sides—therefore also no longer seems likely 20/

The substance of Irish border therefore remains the intractable problem - with no easy solutions. Is the EU's door really open? Or is this smoke & mirrors to avoid blame? V difficult to read. But in light of last week, we are raising odds of deal slightly, from 10% to 15%. ENDS