Thread by @ClimateBen

By 2026, most of humanity will:

1. live with severe water stress
2. fear unprecedented heatwaves
3. be at risk from deadly diseases
4. be affected by extreme weather
5. suffer hunger/famine/starvation
6. consider relocating due to climate

No, this couldn't be true.

Could it?

Average global temperature will have risen considerably in 7 years time - we're set to hit catastrophic 1.5C by 2026:

'The analysis assumes that little or no action is taken to reduce emissions'.

⚠️ There is no sign of even moderate action happening soon.newscientist.com/article/213073…

By 2025, half of the world’s population will be living in water-stressed areas:
who.int/news-room/fact…

Already today 50% of people suffer severe water *scarcity*. How will this improve?

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1164560421589782528?s=19

Billions will live with *high* water stress:

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1161725356941959175?s=19

Extraordinary changes must occur for today's situation (at 1°C) not to become twice as bad:

2019:

17 countries (home to 25% of the world’s population) face extremely high levels of water stress

44 countries (33% of the world) face high levels of stress

wri.org/blog/2019/08/1…

50% of the global population will face exposure to severe heatwaves at least once 'every 20 years' at 1.5°C.

Staggering to think that 4 billion people will have a genuine reason to fear such extreme heat so soon. interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climat…

Heat waves with levels of heat and humidity that *exceed what humans can survive without protection* could hit over 1.5 billion people in South Asia within a few decades. ⚠️

Severe heatwaves really do look set to threaten 50% or more of humanity by 2026.news.mit.edu/2017/deadly-he…

Today, a third of a million under 5 year olds die each year from diarrhoeal diseases.

4.5 billion people lack safely managed sanitation services.

Only profound system change towards #ClimateJustice could avoid the current situation deteriorating further.

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1158142787747012608?s=19

Today over 6 billion people are in climates where there's a risk of mosquito-spread diseases. That number will rise:
theguardian.com/society/2019/m…

"Climate change is going to kill a lot of people. Mosquito-borne diseases are going to be a big way that happens".
commondreams.org/news/2019/03/2…

Most people will be affected as crops, infrastructure, homes, and the global economy are hit by increasingly severe weather.

Already today a billion people are directly facing climate change related hazards (cyclones, floods, bushfires, rising sea levels).vice.com/en_asia/articl…

'Since 1998, about 4.5 billion people around the world have been hurt by extreme weather.'

In the next 7 years, as abrupt climate change accelerates, this number will likely be hit directly or indirectly as extreme weather becomes far more severe/frequent.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/c…

Today 2 billion hungry. Climate change is making things worse:
theconversation.com/hidden-hunger-…

2 billion hit by absolute water scarcity by 2026 plus worse extreme weather. The impact on food production! Only huge change could stop over 50% being hungry by 2026:unfccc.int/news/un-warns-…
⬇️

"If we cannot find a solution to this problem..in 2025, close to 70% [of the planet's soil] could be affected," Gnacadja said. "There will not be global security without food security."

75% of Africa's people will rely on food aid by 2025 (current trends).insideclimatenews.org/news/20091020/…

Banana-growing regions of West Africa will need to act within the next decade, as the land is expected to become unsuitable by 2025.

Maize-growing areas of Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Tanzania: 10 years left... reuters.com/article/africa…

At 1.5C:

-Average global drought length will increase to 2 months

-pollinators continue to decline?

-increased frequency of heat extremes over land in Africa

⚠️ average drought:
N. Africa 7months
W. Africa 6months
E. Africa 3 months
S. Africa 4 months
interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climat…

From 2010:

"yet to be fully recognized by both the public and the climate research community. If the projections in the study come even close to be realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous"

And now we're set to hit 1.5C by 2026.⚠️treehugger.com/natural-scienc…

Threat to food production in Asia from drought risk (brought on by climate change) by 2027. Could threaten 'global food security'.

'droughts lasting longer than three months will be more than twice as severe...compared to the 1990-2005 period'.

phys.org/news/2012-09-f…

Looming food crisis:

'Livelihoods of indigenous communities in Asia are in danger and climate change will end up increasing the food price, increase in cost of living and will further exacerbate poverty.' downtoearth.org.in/news/food-pric…

4 billion suffering from micronutrient malnutrition (hidden hunger), or worse, by 2026, is a disturbing possibility.

What will food prices be like by 2026?

scidev.net/sub-saharan-af…

It seems likely that by 2026 most people will at some point *weigh up* whether they should stay, or move to avoid negative impacts of climate breakdown & ecological collapse.

There are 27 million climate refugees.

100s of millions will have moved by 2026.

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1164557819753971712?s=19

None of this is set in stone. Radical, positive changes to human society could help to 1) prevent water and food crises spinning out of control 2) protect everyone from heatwaves and extreme weather events 3) ensure good health for all 4) allow people to move safely and securely.

All this is to hammer home the urgent need to act now.

'3 billion people will have to choose between going hungry and moving their families to milder climes because of climate change within 100 years'.

No. In reality, 2030 is the new 2100 (or even 2026).newscientist.com/article/dn1638…

⚠️

168 billion more tons of soil eroded by 2026?

'Under agricultural conditions, it takes about 500 years to create an inch of topsoil, which can be lost in minutes. World agriculture contributes to a soil loss of 24 billion tons each year (Baskin, 1997)'sciencedirect.com/topics/agricul…

World Day to Combat Desertification/Drought:

'UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world loses 24 billion tons of fertile land every year.'

This has been understood for decades.

The UN's 'solution'?

More unsustainable economic growth.news.un.org/en/story/2019/…

"reduce forced migration, improve food security and spur economic growth"

⚠️A recent UN-commissioned report found that capitalism is unsustainable, yet it continues to back the overconsumption, waste & environmental destruction of corporate neocolonialism.news.un.org/en/story/2019/…

UN report on unsustainable free market capitalism. ⬇️

Thread:

https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1124803911246913536?s=19

In 1960, there was around half a hectare of farming land for every person on Earth...by 2020, there will be only a third of that left.

And by 2026?

⚠️:
Forest removal
Overgrazing
Monoculture
Irrigation (saline water)
Toxic waste
Erosion
Climate breakdown
timesofmalta.com/articles/view/…

'Industrialised agriculture wouldn't be possible without plentiful provisions of cheap crude oil & natural gas to supply fuels, pesticides, herbicides & fertilisers. If the cheap oil & gas supply fails global agriculture fails too..'

Transformation now.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/25108…