Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
@NvOndarza
Sep 24, 2019 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Let us look at the scenarios.

I have no insights what is more likely, as seems to be the case for UK legal twitter.

Outcome could vary between #prorogation not being justiciable all the way to the current prorogation being unlawful plus obligations on the gov. /2
If gov prevails and #prorogation is not justiciable:

- Negotiations continue as they are

- Gov gains the option to prorogue again in October in an attempt to circumvent Benn Act

- Raises probability of no deal, but no effect on EU negotiation strategy
/3
If #prorogation is justiciable, but the current one lawful:

- Parliaments returns as planned on Oct14

- Negotiations continue as planned, with small window betw Oct2 (Tory Conf) and Oct14 to fully concentrate on UK-EU talks rather than UK internal political turmoil
/4
If #prorogation is justiciable and the current one not lawful:

- PM embarrassed but unlikely to resign

- Parliament returns quickly, more political chaos in UK

- From EU27 pov, this further limits the very small negotiation period betw Tory conf and #EUCO on 17/18 Oct
/5
In sum – from EU27 point of view direct effect of Supreme Court ruling likely to be limited, but if there is a full-on government defeat, the task of finding a common landing zone for an October #Brexit deal will become even harder. /ends

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Nicolai von Ondarza

Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NvOndarza

Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Jun 10
We know by now that the centre held, and the far-right gains were confined to a couple of (important) member states. But what about the new & non-aligned parties?

To get a better sense, I went through the 77 MEPs counted as new/non-aligned by @EuropeElects Image
After a - very rough - categorisation by political affiliation, some suprising results:

First, about 42 of 77 fall into the far-right/nat conservative group, chief among them the AfD and Fidesz looking for options. But a few of the smaller are closer to the ECR, less for the ID. Image
Second, with M5S, SMER and BSW amongst others, there is a sizable group of 24 MEPs who roughly fall into the populist left/nationalist left category. Plus a few Communist who are not sitting with the Left EP group.
Read 6 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Jun 9
With all polls for #EP2024 now closed, an attempt to collect my first thoughts.

Main take away: European politics will get more polarising, more politicised and more populistic.
First, the turnout, likely up or stable. This is astounding after mostly boring, nationally focused campaigns. Whereas national mainstream parties invested (too) little in these elections, voters are getting more interested in European politics.
Second, despite high-profile wins for the far-right, across Europe the centre held. This happened even more than expected, with the EPP even gaining ~10 seats, whereas - for now - the liberals are third and the losses of the Social Democrats with -6 are moderate. Image
Read 12 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Mar 25
What does Europe think about a potential return of Trump to the White House?

To get a better understanding, @ClaudMajor, Laura von Daniels and I asked colleagues from 20 European countries both in and outside the EU/NATO.

Here are the results:

swp-berlin.org/publications/p…
2/ On first sight, a very similar perspective emerged from most countries, with a triangle of concerns:

Democracy, Defence and trade.
3/ Democracy: There are fears that a second Trump term could embolden authoritarian & right-wing populist forces in Europe & globally, undermining democratic rules & norms.

His support for illiberal leaders like Orban is particularly worrying for European democracy.
Read 11 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Mar 1
As far-right parties are gaining ground across Europe ahead of the #EP2024 elections, @Beckehrung and I have analysed the geostrategic positioning of different far-right parties across five key dimensions.

The results are quite telling:

swp-berlin.org/publikation/ge…
For the analysis, we looked at voting in the EP in regards to EU relations with Russia, China, the US/NATO as well as EU foreign and security policy and enlargement.

We analysed 74 votes during the current legislature, and included all parties to the right of the EPP.
First, far-right parties remain deeply divided amongst themselves.

Relations with Russia have long been a divisive point between different far-right parties, but they also differ significantly on EU-China relations, transatlantic relations and (to a lesser extent) enlargement. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Sep 19, 2023
Our report today on reforming the EU in light of enlargement is being grossly misrepresented in UK media.

1) It is an independent report, mandated by the two Europe ministers, not the official position by the French or German government or the EU.

thetimes.co.uk/article/french…
2) The focus of the report is to get the EU fit for enlargement and strengthen democracy/rule of law.

The UK is mentioned in a half sentence, for an outer tier of Associate Membership with single market integration, if it wants to. Which neither the UK gov nor Labour wants.
3) The publication of the report was long planned for today's General Affairs Council, ahead of further EU discussions on enlargement planned for the fall. The overlap to Starmer's Paris visit was pure coincidence, driver is the EU's enlargement debate.
Read 5 tweets
Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Jan 19, 2023
As someone who argued for more European sovereignty - in a Euro-atlantic framework - I am truly baffled the German government communication and decision-making on Leopard 2. The damage it is doing to German credibility and European sovereignty is hard to overstate. /1
First, The German government is arguing it does not want to act alone ('No Alleingänge'). But so many of its European allies - from the Central/Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltics), North (Finland), South (Spain), Northwest (UK) now want to act and are calling for Berlin to do so. /2
However, the German government is now arguing it needs a US decision to send tanks before it can send Leos or give other European countries permission to do so.

Instead of European sovereignty, this is effectively outsourcing risky decision-making to the US. /3
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(