If gov prevails and #prorogation is not justiciable:
- Negotiations continue as they are
- Gov gains the option to prorogue again in October in an attempt to circumvent Benn Act
- Raises probability of no deal, but no effect on EU negotiation strategy
/3
If #prorogation is justiciable, but the current one lawful:
- Parliaments returns as planned on Oct14
- Negotiations continue as planned, with small window betw Oct2 (Tory Conf) and Oct14 to fully concentrate on UK-EU talks rather than UK internal political turmoil
/4
If #prorogation is justiciable and the current one not lawful:
- PM embarrassed but unlikely to resign
- Parliament returns quickly, more political chaos in UK
- From EU27 pov, this further limits the very small negotiation period betw Tory conf and #EUCO on 17/18 Oct
/5
In sum – from EU27 point of view direct effect of Supreme Court ruling likely to be limited, but if there is a full-on government defeat, the task of finding a common landing zone for an October #Brexit deal will become even harder. /ends
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2/ On first sight, a very similar perspective emerged from most countries, with a triangle of concerns:
Democracy, Defence and trade.
3/ Democracy: There are fears that a second Trump term could embolden authoritarian & right-wing populist forces in Europe & globally, undermining democratic rules & norms.
His support for illiberal leaders like Orban is particularly worrying for European democracy.
As far-right parties are gaining ground across Europe ahead of the #EP2024 elections, @Beckehrung and I have analysed the geostrategic positioning of different far-right parties across five key dimensions.
For the analysis, we looked at voting in the EP in regards to EU relations with Russia, China, the US/NATO as well as EU foreign and security policy and enlargement.
We analysed 74 votes during the current legislature, and included all parties to the right of the EPP.
Relations with Russia have long been a divisive point between different far-right parties, but they also differ significantly on EU-China relations, transatlantic relations and (to a lesser extent) enlargement.
2) The focus of the report is to get the EU fit for enlargement and strengthen democracy/rule of law.
The UK is mentioned in a half sentence, for an outer tier of Associate Membership with single market integration, if it wants to. Which neither the UK gov nor Labour wants.
3) The publication of the report was long planned for today's General Affairs Council, ahead of further EU discussions on enlargement planned for the fall. The overlap to Starmer's Paris visit was pure coincidence, driver is the EU's enlargement debate.
As someone who argued for more European sovereignty - in a Euro-atlantic framework - I am truly baffled the German government communication and decision-making on Leopard 2. The damage it is doing to German credibility and European sovereignty is hard to overstate. /1
First, The German government is arguing it does not want to act alone ('No Alleingänge'). But so many of its European allies - from the Central/Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltics), North (Finland), South (Spain), Northwest (UK) now want to act and are calling for Berlin to do so. /2
However, the German government is now arguing it needs a US decision to send tanks before it can send Leos or give other European countries permission to do so.
Instead of European sovereignty, this is effectively outsourcing risky decision-making to the US. /3
@JeremyCliffe First, it's not just centre-right parties moving further to the right (like the US republicans), but also far-right parties becoming more moderate, especially on EU policy. See Meloni, Salvini, Le Pen et al all moving away from calling for their version of either Euro or EU-exit.
@JeremyCliffe Instead, as @APHClarkson, these far-right parties have become 'Europeanised' - they know voters don't want to leave the EU, so instead they want to remake the EU in their image, with hard migration, a 'Europe of nations' w/o rule of law protections.
Today's massive tax cuts in the new UK budget also mark a turning point in the economics of #Brexit which will decide how the success or failure of Brexit will be judged in the future.
First, at the heart of Brexit was always an economic inconsistency. Some Leavers supported it to protect the UK from globalisation, attacking the EU for being a vehicle of liberal policies.
Many of those ended up as first time Tory voters for Boris Johnson, i.e. the ‘red wall’.
They wanted Brexit for a culturally conservative, but economic left-wing policies.