Thread by @ContestedCatch

🚨CC's AYOC: Air Yards Opportunity Chart🚨

Wks 1-4

THREAD:

I created this visual & used it to generate Buy📈 candidates this week, which were discussed on CC E15. Details on how to read this & explanations of Buys are 👇

Data of course from @AirYards & airyards.com

Player pool: WRs & TEs w/ >18 targets and >200 air yards (AY), which equals 58 players

AY= yards from LOS to targeted receiver (even if incomplete)... anything after is RAC. AY can be negative
RY= Receiving yards, or AY + RAC

AYD= AY Differential, or AY - RY
☝️this one is the🔑

AY are a good measure of opportunity, but are much less widely used than are general targets.

AYD helps us evaluate if players have over- or under-performed their opportunity.

High AYD = under-performed & due for +regression
Low or -AYD could be a sign of usage...

i.e. RBs often have -AY. RBs & TEs are more reliant on RAC than WRs typically.

So I focus on Buys w/ Hi AYD, rather than Sells w/ Lo AYD bc Lo can be misleading.

Hi AYD doesn't 100% equal +regression (talent, injury, etc. could obstruct) - it means opportunity is there for it.

In the AYOC (attached here again) more TDs are in red, less are in green. This is to help visualize TD regression. This isn't perfect bc it doesn't factor in weighted opportunity to score TDs (like @MikeClayNFL's OTD metric).

Still, can indicate + & - TD regression candidates.

SO: all this said, I factor in AYD + targets + TD regression to identify Buys in my AYOC.

Generally, we want guys who could see +TD regression, have safe target #'s, and high AYD to show there's room for growth in RY too.
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Let's look at the top half of PPR-ranked WRs & TEs...

#DeAndreHopkins / Nuk.
We know he scores TDs (39 last 4 years), he has a great target share (28%), but has under-performed.

He has the 7th highest AYD of 58 qualifiers, showing there's plenty of room for Nuk to bounce back, & soon... next games: vs ATL, @ KC, @ IND, vs OAK

#HollywoodBrown / MB

3rd in AY, but 6th in AYD. He & Lamar have been just missing.

They're dynamic downfield & MB averages >8 targets/gm. His role is secure. He's going to explode again soon.
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How about the 2nd half of PPR-ranked WRs & TEs...

#CurtisSamuel / CS

Current QB Kyle Allen has been looking 4.31 speedster CS's way downfield often, but they've been barely thwarted multiple times.

8th in AY but 2nd in AYD!!

Opportunity aplenty for CS. Potential blow up coming vs JAX in Wk5. Buy Low Now. Cheap for DFS too.

#WillFuller / WF

The known deep-ball specialist has stayed healthy so far but Watson hasn't been on point downfield yet. Expect that to change.

WF is 4th in AYD, and despite low target #'s, his history w/ Watson says a blow up game is coming soon.

FLEX worthy + DFS GPP hammer.

There are other solid buys in my AYOC too:

#KennyGolladay #Babytron
Stafford is 2nd in QB AY, KG is 3rd in AYD.
Despite 4 TDs (T-1st), still room for growth.

#MikeEvans
Same here. 1st in AYD, 5th in AYD. He could be WR1 overall.

Can say the same for #Julio too.

#OBJ and #JohnBrown / JB didn't quite make the cut, but both are due for +regression.

OBJ is 16th in AYD, only has 1 TD so far this year (~80 RAC on it).
JB is 9th in AYD, also 1 TD.

Neither have been heavy RZ targets this season, but should still pop soon, especially OBJ.

Lastly, #Dolphins WRs #DeVanteParker, #PrestonWilliams, & #JakeemGrant ....

They rank 1st, 8th, and 11th in AYD.
Context matters - we know their situation.

BUT.
There is a lil opportunity here for a DFS GPP dart or two.
Blind squirrel finds a nut and all that...

Let me know if you like my AYOC, and thoughts on any of my Top Buys📈 for this week!

If you liked this, feel free to share😎

@friscojosh thoughts?