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BBN Profile picture
@BigBiteNow
Nov 5, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
#i3e anchor handlers still in Montrose but interesting to see that they are stated as being available for charter from 9th Nov, which would likely have them finishing at Borgland by 8th Nov.

That would tie in with 6th Nov start based on completed Serenity programme.
Also interesting to see that the Hermit Fighter arrived at Borgland early on 3rd Nov but only pulled alongside rig this afternoon.

Couple that with anchor handlers remaining contracted to #I3E since 3rd Nov. That lends itself to bad weather, which has been reported.
Braghe King and Njord Viking now setting sail.

Destination Borgland Dolphin.

Magne King already at sea but not yet confirmed for Borgland.

#I3E

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More from @BigBiteNow

BBN Profile picture
Oct 7
1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.

With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing.
2/
 The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.

The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
3/
 The numbers say this would be small (c. $5m) and could well be in the form of a further expansion to the Sallport facility as expanding revenues allow it.

That then leaves the SWK finance covenants.

They are based on quarterly rolling group revenues up until Q2 2025. Image
Read 16 tweets
BBN Profile picture
Apr 4
1/23
I've been studying the #THX Segilola remaining mine life and found some interesting details.

First of all, here is the independently calculated mine plan as it stood in 2021.

Note the mineable ore was calculated at just $1,600 gold.
Image
2/
 A total of 501,800 ozs of payable gold was expected at 97% recovery from 518,000 oz of contained gold.

To date, recoveries, since operations began, have been averaging c. 94.4%.

At that rate, Segilola will deliver 489,000 oz over its current mine life. Image
3/
 Up to the end of 2023, the mine has produced 192,503 oz and sold 179,138 oz.

This means 13,365 oz sit in inventory as of 1st Jan 2024 with a current value at $2,100/oz of c. $28m.

What this also means is that Segilola still has 296,497 oz of gold to produce.
Read 24 tweets
BBN Profile picture
Jul 22, 2022
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/
 Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.

Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/
 Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.

It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
Read 16 tweets
BBN Profile picture
Jul 21, 2022
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
2/
 Note the 43% jump in forecast 2022 sales but that all of this rise is due to significant increases in Q3 and Q4 sales projections.

In fact, Q1/Q2 should actually deliver slightly less than was forecast originally.
3/
 This forecast was adjusted on 3rd May and the Q3/Q4 forecasts are based on "committed orders and projected orders." Just like with HMI.

Verde sees itself delivering c. 62% more product in Q3 than originally projected on 10th Jan 2022. So inside 4 months.
Read 12 tweets
BBN Profile picture
Jul 20, 2022
1/9
 In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.

$924k vs $1.824m
2/
 Due to the way HMI's business cycle runs this is a theme that compounds as sales expand along with prices.

Meaning that if investors simply concentrate on cash on hand then they are misunderstanding how the business operates.
3/
 This is can be proven by simply reviewing the Verde Agritech quarterly accounts once more.

For revenues Verde count the full price including freight which indicates that they are responsible for this. Unlike HMI which sells at the gate.
Read 9 tweets
BBN Profile picture
Jul 20, 2022
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/
 Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.

So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/
 Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.

At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.

Read 18 tweets

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