Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #i3e

Most recents (15)

Some excellent moves in the PF this week:

ST trades in each of #TRX and #XSG reduced, as they had increased so quickly (~150% and 66% respectively). Balances of positions to be held until ~2p for each stock, but will revise accordingly, keeping a close eye on momentum. 1/12
Two new modest ST trades opened yesterday PM, 200k shares in each: #CIR and #C4XD (both ~17.5p av. entry). Primarily capitalising on community's (and my) recent success in trading up Woodford/Invesco calamities (TRX and XSG!). Both now enjoy solid fundamentals - valuations...2/12
...much more attractive now, with both #CIR and #C4XD SPs having been decimated this year. Moreover, they now enjoy the backing of retail. Fundamentals combined with sentiment = crucial.

ST trade (but happy to hold as a LT investment) opened in #DKL too. Very cheap CPO biz..3/12
Read 12 tweets
The plot continues to thicken with the Ocean Observer.

Its first task today was to take a run up to to the Tain discovery, which means it has now visited both Tain and effectively the Bleoheim FPSO.

Its now busy surveying a section North of its main survey area, which effectively sits along the line designated "Captain 8in Gas Export" in the #I3E Field Development Plan.

This area is right on the Southern border of the Tain block.
So much so that the survey is cutting through the bottom left hand corner of that Tain block.

Given the Serenity discovery was only announced on 29th Oct, somebody is an awful hurry to establish something.

Read 3 tweets
#i3e anchor handlers still in Montrose but interesting to see that they are stated as being available for charter from 9th Nov, which would likely have them finishing at Borgland by 8th Nov.

That would tie in with 6th Nov start based on completed Serenity programme.
Also interesting to see that the Hermit Fighter arrived at Borgland early on 3rd Nov but only pulled alongside rig this afternoon.

Couple that with anchor handlers remaining contracted to #I3E since 3rd Nov. That lends itself to bad weather, which has been reported.
Braghe King and Njord Viking now setting sail.

Destination Borgland Dolphin.

Magne King already at sea but not yet confirmed for Borgland.

Read 3 tweets
Current #I3E 197mm STOIIP based on av. 40ft oil sand thickness across Serenity.

But known parameters are 10ft at Serenity oil find and 150ft at neighbouring 13/23a-5Y location.

Av. of the 2 is 80ft, though Eastern (10ft) part is wider, but not by double.
Even remaining conservative, Serenity is bigger than 197mm STOIIP, whether #I3E are saying so are not.
#I3E CEO Shafiq (22 min 20s)

"What Serenity also does for us is puts us into a development. . . Tain and Serenity will now have to be unitised as one field, and we will be part of that discussion with owners of the Tain field."

So clear message, Serenity/Tain are connected.
Read 5 tweets
From #I3E @proactive_UK Interview 29.10.2019.

""we were supposed to TD the well in the Valhall. When we got to the Valhall, we saw some indications of sands, which would be the Coracle sand, so we deepened the well, to see of we could find more of these sands"
"and we did, and on the logs it looks like there is potentially some oil in there as well, so that is a pleasant and unexpected result."

It looks very much like #I3E the geological sidetrack was for Valhall extension, and it found (unexpected) oil.

"we found a 10ft oil pay section here. . . in Tain they have 4-5ft. . . we were expecting to see something similar to that in this location. . . so better than we expected"

Solid grounds for a mark up of the #I3E stated 197mm STOIIP.
Read 3 tweets
Majid Shafiq on 1st #I3E L2 Pilot Well COS

"I know there were numbers out there of 90%. I don't think we ever put those numbers in the market"
On the new A2 well COS

"We've drilled the 8 well (original discovery on LIB), we've drilled the 9 well, which is very close, we're drilling a few 100 metres North East of that, and we have the new seismic mapping, which tied into all those 2 well control points"

"and is a really good data set that's got really really clear mapping of this sand, so its very high."

Moving on to the reasoning for this #I3E A2 well. . .
Read 7 tweets

According to #I3E Jan 2019 presentation, LIB at 21MMbbl of recoverable oil, had a NPV10 of $602m (3 wells).

The revised LIB phase 1 now has 23MMbbl (4 wells).

However, at 63m STOIIP in LIB phase 1, the recovery rate is 'only' 36.5%.

Blake next door is over 50%.

1 revised pilot well 500m from the L2 pilot location, will unlock that.

Success there allows access to the $100m RBL facility, which should push #I3E through to first oil.

Said first oil unlocks the cash flows necessary to appraise/develop Serenity and/or explore LIB West.

Serenity is on paper, more than twice the size of LIB phase 1.

LIB West is twice the size of Serenity.

Read 4 tweets
23rd Oct #I3E confirm Proactive Oil Capital Conference attendance.

23rd Oct Serenity Oil Discharge Permit varied.

24th Oct I3E update A3 appraisal permit start date to 31st Oct.

They wouldn't update the A3 permit and thus drill location, unless they knew the L2 results.
Further to above timeline, add the following important update ;

16th Oct #I3E variation to Serenity drill permit. Now confirmed as a geological sidetrack, as defined by the OGA.
OGA defines a geological sidetrack as ;

”If the target location changes but surface location stays the same, the new wellbore is called a geological sidetrack.”

A re-spud has a separate definition

Read 4 tweets
Rather interestingly the 'consent to locate a mobile installation' for the #i3E Liberator A3 appraisal well, has been updated as of yesterday, with an anticipated start date of 31st Oct.
More interestingly, said #I3E permit was updated 1 day after the Oil Discharge Permit variation to the Serenity well, was itself updated.

Meaning whatever is happening at Serenity will soon be complete, and the A3 drill location is now known.
In one fowl swoop we have a deadline for the Serenity well, and we know that A3 is going to happen, and happen soon.

The #I3E Oil Discharge Permit for Serenity remains outstanding. I would think it won't be for very long.
Read 5 tweets
The market is questioning #I3E ability to fund its 3 drill programme.

The market assumes that the cost is $41m for a 94 day programme.

Nowhere are these 2 figures presented together.

#I3E c.$41m figure (inclusive of considerable contingencies) appeared in 10th Jan RNS when the 3 well programme included a horizontal development well at L2 location.

The 94 day programme appeared in 9th April RNS when the L2 pilot well was introduced.
Vertical pilot wells dont take as long as a horizontal well.

What happened in between those 2 dates, was the junior debt facility negotiations, post the term sheet sign off on 25th Feb. Actual closure came on 3rd June.

Between 25th Feb/9th April, #I3E pilot well came about.
Read 6 tweets
A very interesting development because they don't need to be there.

It indicates that the L2 well result analysis is due prior to this date, which ties in with the advice given by #I3E of it being concluded in time for finalising the A3 drill location, for drilling post S1.
By attending #I3E are going to be expected to talk about their LIB Phase 1 development plan, and to do this they need to release the full well analysis and its affect, if any, on that development plan.
Attendance may well be less about the results of S1, and more about what LIB phase 1 is and can be, after the L2 pilot well.

#I3E to date has not move away from its position of achieving LIB phase 1 and/or its senior debt facility, although perception says A3 result is needed.
Read 3 tweets
#I3E Serenity permit variation to the EIA 'Direction to Undertake Drilling Operations' and Chemical Permit, have both now moved to decision status.
#I3E Serenity permit variation to the EIA ‘Direction to Undertake Drilling Operations’ and Chemical Permit, have both now moved to ‘Approved’ status.

Whatever variation it is, is now likely under way.
#I3E Serenity permit variation to the Oil Discharge has now also moved to ‘Approved’ status.

The Serenity variation is now fully permitted once more.
Read 3 tweets
How much longer is the market going to insist on ignoring this #I3E statement?

That there's doubt about its COS and that it can still fail is clear but at the same time, where is the evidence to show that it has changed?

What if its still an appraisal well with a 72% COS?
There are many good examples of far more suspect companies, with far riskier drills, with little or no development plan idea, that have been shown far more respect than #I3E and its experienced and successful BOD.

The psychology of AIM is fascinating at times.
#I3E Interims (post L2 pilot well result).

"The Company’s focus for the remainder of 2019 will be on 3 key areas"

Item 2.

"Continued advancement of a robust Liberator Phase I development plan while securing associated funding to bring the field to first oil."
Read 4 tweets
#I3E anchor handlers booked to start tomorrow. I would think they’ll be beating that 10th Oct date by some distance.

S1 start up on its way. #I3E
As suspected all 3 anchor handlers coming out of Aberdeen so should be on site fairly smartly.

Read 3 tweets
As explained on LSE website today, #I3E currently on day 41 of a 94 day 'initial' drill contract.

The 3 drills are costing $36m of which $33m to be paid this Summer due to BHGE taking $3m at 1st oil.

I3E raised a total of $48.8m for their drill campaign.

$15.8m float in play.
L2 and A3 confirmed as 41 and 40 days duration including contingencies.

Said contingencies surely covered already, either in $33m cost or the float.

Even after standing down, #I3E are bang on their L2 duration.

Re-mobilize from 26th Sept and they are only 3 days out of sink.
Apologies L2 duration was 41 days, so they are still within the drill in terms of contingencies.

Thus 26th Sept places them 2 days max outside known long stop plan, with S1 and A3 capable of matching L2 and beating the long stop date.

Read 3 tweets

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