Seaver Wang Profile picture
Nov 5, 2019 13 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Hopping on the bandwagon to bash #climatechange defeatism is nice, but I think a more useful exercise is to ask *why* people believe that 'failure' to mitigate is a foregone conclusion. Why do my smart, well-meaning friends sigh and ask me if I *really* think we can cut CO2? (1)
Is it just the fatalism of the post-9/11 world? We passed the 18th anniv. of war in Afghanistan last mo., the Syrian civil war is in its ninth year. Unarmed civilians are being gunned down in Chile + Iraq, government brutality is on public display in Lebanon and Hong Kong... (2)
We wonder if our elections and elected officials have been compromised by foreign influence and have ceased to be surprised by political corruption. Storms batter Puerto Rico this time, or the Philippines, fires burn Greece and CA (3)
With all this in mind, I don't think #climatechange defeatism is born primarily out of ignorance, genuine nihilism, or contrarianism. Rather, its safe to say that people are fatigued and hopeless, and don't feel enough optimism about human nature and the state of the world (4)
This is where I think climate catastrophism fails us. Sounding alarm on a (misleading) 12-year climate deadline, carbon footprint guilt tripping, prophesying extinction - it mobilizes the climate base, bless our martyr tendencies - but you can't demand emotional energy... (5)
...from those who have precious little to spare as it is. The inactive are *not* indifferent, they're just paralyzed by sadness, and catastrophism hurts rather than helps with this. People barely holding together as it is have no room for more guilt, panic, and worry (6)
I'm speaking as a lifelong activist with frontline experience. Arrested alongside @billmckibben protesting #KeystonePipeline in March '14. Spent the last nine years calling out to smart, young fellow students on univ. quads for petition signatures, recruitment, calls to reps (7)
"12 years to save the climate" has galvanized protests of inspiring size and passion around the world, but I worry that's the high water mark for a movement fixated on the language of disaster. Disaster is exhausting to think about - even writing this is draining. (8)
I feel the focus needs to shift. People are disengaged and pessimistic because they have little confidence in government and their individual ability to change things. Fixing this requires prioritizing restoration of people's faith in political process + society (9)
This starts at the tactical, short-term level. Begin by targeting repair of the democratic process, fighting corruption and influence, enforcing accountability for misconduct. Restore people's confidence that their voice matters and that gov't works to serve them. (10)
At the same time, we start seriously planning now. A detailed roadmap - and focusing advocacy around planning and specific action - can show the disengaged that attainable paths towards a better future exist. Your voice matters + we have a way out of this = heads lift up. (11)
Finally (and I'm likely advocating in vain), junk the 12-year climate deadline. Not only a misrepresentation of the science (nature.com/articles/s4155…), but it makes climate chg into a bleak all-or-nothing binary future rather than the (nonlinear) sliding scale it is. (12)
We need to focus on hope, regain confidence in progress. We've come so far. WW1 ended just over 100 yrs ago - today we have reduced war, disease, hunger, poverty while expanding education, lifespans. History is not monotonic progress but neither is it a foregone tragedy. (END)

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More from @wang_seaver

Apr 25
To supply low-carbon power to a grid via nuclear, solar, wind, or grid batteries, how much material must we dig up to build those power plants?
Answer: far less than for fossil fuels, with nuclear needing the least mining. New @TheBTI report by my team:
thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
Image
Big takeaways:
Coal? Digs ~1.18 million kgs of rock+coal per GWh for fuel only
Solar+wind have improved much in last 10 yrs
Nuclear still needs least mining + critical minerals per GWh
Cu, steel, Ni, Li, U, Ag offer ways to improve mining footprint further
thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
What inspired this analysis? Energy transition mining remains divisive, but discussions often cite flawed or out-of-date data, or end up handwavy. For this analysis, we wanted to make an up-to-date comparison, w transparent methodology using public sources
apps.openei.org/REMPD/
Read 24 tweets
Jan 28
From 2018 to 2023, silver use in solar PV cells has dropped by around half! (h/t @solar_chase)

Indeed academic papers (incl my own) tend to lean several yrs out of date. But industry intel is often paywalled, hence my habit of obnoxiously saving whatever nuggets I come across. Image
This is a clear example of why getting the stamp of peer-review doesn't mean something is right or the golden truth of science.

The most crucial round of peer review is really the permanent, continuous reactions/feedback from other experts once a study is actually publicly read.
I had assumed 10g per watt in my @Joule_CP paper, and had thought afterwards that might've been generous--but now it's right on the money.

Where I was way off was concrete, which is no longer used to anchor solar mountings in most utility-scale plants.

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 15, 2023
Finally found time yesterday evening to take an unofficial satellite's-eye-view tour of the quasi-legendary Spruce Pine ultra-high-purity quartz mine in North Carolina.

It'd be an understatement to say this mine is currently key to the semiconductor + solar PV industries. 🧵 Image
IIRC, there's no other ultra-high-purity quartz mine of this scale, creating quite the potential bottleneck. A fire at a Spruce Pine facility may have contributed to the 2008 spike in polysilicon prices that arguably set off the last decade's solar boom.

Ultra-high-purity quartz is used for chip factory tools + crucibles used to contain molten silicon during manufacturing of ultrapure monocrystalline silicon ingots for chips + solar PV wafers via the Czochralski process. Pure quartz reduces impurities in the resulting product. Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 27, 2023
Expanding energy access + clean energy in Asia + Africa won’t be as easy as many high-profile “100% renewable” papers suggest.

My new analysis shows how 100% RE models on Asia/Africa assume implausibly low costs + overlook key infrastructure challenges.

thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
A flashy review paper from @ChristianOnRE + coauthors allegedly compiling hundreds of “100% renewable energy system” studies worldwide has received a lot of recent attention.

But this isn’t as big/rigorous of a field as such stated numbers might imply.

https://t.co/L23TRAoo9C
Image
Given my interests in Asia climate/energy policy, I noticed this review generating buzz early on, and was keen to dig deeper.

I noticed some funny things at a first glance (see linked thread), but over the past months I found much more serious issues...

Read 27 tweets
Jul 26, 2023
Untangling @enricomariutti's solar PV CO2 analysis as quoted by Shellenberger, Part 2

To his great credit, Enrico has made his calculations available, emphasizing he has nothing to hide.

In the same spirit I agreed to take a close look--and I think I've isolated the key issues. Image
I’m going to work through these numbers step by step below.

I’ve made a copy of Enrico’s calculations sheet that I’ll share here in case anybody else wants to take a look. Fair warning, the units change often and are not clearly denoted:

https://t.co/JvyYOngSGLdocs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Image
LIFETIME GENERATION:

Enrico uses the full equivalent hours method here, assuming generation at full capacity for the equivalent of 1137 hours/yr in Italy. Other key factors include 25 year lifetime, module degradation at 2% the 1st year + 0.5%/yr thereafter, and 5.6% grid losses Image
Read 20 tweets
Jul 25, 2023
I think this solar PV CO2 analysis from @enricomariutti promoted by Shellenberger is too high for reasons I'll point out.

Mariutti gives range of 170-250 g/kWh (!!)
Many literature estimates range 12-80 g/kWh
My rough estimate of upper-end is maybe a bit more than 72 g/kWh
I think Mariutti is correct to point out that much of the LCA literature is not sufficiently accounting for more CO2-intensive Chinese manufacturing.

But Mariutti then bases electricity inputs for silicon supply chain on a 2006 study

Mariutti's calcs: https://t.co/f8PBWRYC11enricomariutti.it/the-dirty-secr…
Image
I can appreciate why he likes the transparency of the 2006 study? But this misses the past 17 years of learning-by-doing as the solar-grade polysilicon sector has scaled many times over.

He takes 1.61 GWh/MWp as the electricity input for solar-grade polysilicon, for instance.
Read 16 tweets

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