From 2018 to 2023, silver use in solar PV cells has dropped by around half! (h/t @solar_chase)

Indeed academic papers (incl my own) tend to lean several yrs out of date. But industry intel is often paywalled, hence my habit of obnoxiously saving whatever nuggets I come across. This is a clear example of why getting the stamp of peer-review doesn't mean something is right or the golden truth of science.

The most crucial round of peer review is really the permanent, continuous reactions/feedback from other experts once a study is actually publicly read.

Finally found time yesterday evening to take an unofficial satellite's-eye-view tour of the quasi-legendary Spruce Pine ultra-high-purity quartz mine in North Carolina.

It'd be an understatement to say this mine is currently key to the semiconductor + solar PV industries. 🧵 IIRC, there's no other ultra-high-purity quartz mine of this scale, creating quite the potential bottleneck. A fire at a Spruce Pine facility may have contributed to the 2008 spike in polysilicon prices that arguably set off the last decade's solar boom.

https://twitter.com/DustinMulvaney/status/1264965421809061888?s=20

Expanding energy access + clean energy in Asia + Africa won’t be as easy as many high-profile “100% renewable” papers suggest.

My new analysis shows how 100% RE models on Asia/Africa assume implausibly low costs + overlook key infrastructure challenges.

thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/… A flashy review paper from @ChristianOnRE + coauthors allegedly compiling hundreds of “100% renewable energy system” studies worldwide has received a lot of recent attention.

But this isn’t as big/rigorous of a field as such stated numbers might imply.

https://t.co/L23TRAoo9C

https://twitter.com/ChristianOnRE/status/1603017570050875392?s=20

Untangling @enricomariutti's solar PV CO2 analysis as quoted by Shellenberger, Part 2

To his great credit, Enrico has made his calculations available, emphasizing he has nothing to hide.

In the same spirit I agreed to take a close look--and I think I've isolated the key issues. I’m going to work through these numbers step by step below.

I’ve made a copy of Enrico’s calculations sheet that I’ll share here in case anybody else wants to take a look. Fair warning, the units change often and are not clearly denoted:

https://t.co/JvyYOngSGLdocs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

I think this solar PV CO2 analysis from @enricomariutti promoted by Shellenberger is too high for reasons I'll point out.

Mariutti gives range of 170-250 g/kWh (!!)
Many literature estimates range 12-80 g/kWh
My rough estimate of upper-end is maybe a bit more than 72 g/kWh

https://twitter.com/shellenberger/status/1683465170943614977

I think Mariutti is correct to point out that much of the LCA literature is not sufficiently accounting for more CO2-intensive Chinese manufacturing.

But Mariutti then bases electricity inputs for silicon supply chain on a 2006 study

Mariutti's calcs: https://t.co/f8PBWRYC11enricomariutti.it/the-dirty-secr…

🇺🇸 lacks key clean tech know-how writes @robinsonmeyer

I think I largely disagree. Was looking at battery-grade graphite, which 🇺🇸 virtually didn't make b4 now.

Seems we may hit 100k tons/yr by 2025 + 200k t/yr by 2028--and I might be missing projects.

nytimes.com/2023/07/17/opi… I struggle to think of sectors/technologies where the US truly has a vacuum of essential know-how. Even in areas like upstream silicon-based solar factories or LFP batteries where the US is behind, we're competitive in alternative commercial tech (CtTe solar + NMC batteries)...

"Like, retweet + follow for more genius threads guys!!1"

Hollow pop sci Twitter at it's worst. This doesn't work. You learn why in your 1st or 2nd oceanography class. 🧵

- fertilizing algae = huge effort for small returns. E.g. not all algae sink + store carbon.

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1662056350321455104

- more algae = more critters, viruses that prey on them. Sometimes the critters' poop sinks well, but not always, they're often messy eaters.

- fertilizing via artificial upwelling? Nutrient-rich deeper waters also contain more co2, reducing your sequestration of atmospheric co2

How has int'l exclusion of Taiwan from climate initiatives impeded climate efforts? How could the the int'l community + Taiwan cooperate better on climate/clean energy?

Pleased to present this collection of responses by Taiwanese scholars + experts.

thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/… We asked six Taiwanese researchers working on climate/energy issues to provide their answers to these questions:

Dr. Chien-Te Fan
Dr. Ker-Hsuan Chien
Dr. Chung-En Liu (@JohnChungEnLiu)
Dr. Tsung-Kuang Yeh
Dr. Wan-Yu Shih (@Wanyu_Shih)
Po-Jen Hsu

In my latest essay I try to highlight 2 key pts on climate change:
- current climate research doesn’t expect any imminent global tipping point that will spark runaway climate change
- climate tipping elements exist, but human emissions matter much more🧵

thebreakthrough.org/journal/climat… These points may feel alien to many folks in climate circles, given headlines framing the climate as on a cliff's edge, but the IPCC is very clear:

“There is no evidence of abrupt change in climate projections of global temperature for the next century” IPCC AR6 Box TS.9, pTS-71

GOP reps have a theatrical hearing title: “Exposing the Enviro, Human Rights + Nat Sec Risks of the Biden Admin’s Rush to Green Policies”

As I’ve warned, hesitance re: supply chain human rights issues gives energy transition critics room to run wild.🧵

subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews… When it comes to complaining about supply chains for low-carbon technologies dominated by Chinese suppliers, I'll note Republican lawmakers are often uninterested in solving this problem, even getting in the way of efforts to establish more alternative domestic manufacturing.

New from me: I worked with @AGU_Eos, @theAGU + #AGUpubs to put together a plain-language, Q&A-style piece discussing our recent review paper on climate tipping elements!

Thanks to @AGU_Eos for inviting me to write this Editor's Vox article.

fal.cn/3xkL3 The @AGU_Eos editors posed great questions:
- What are tipping elements? Which ones did you review?
- What are challenges of studying tipping elements?
- What is a “tipping cascade”?
- Which tipping elements could start undergoing major changes soon?
- What Qs remain unanswered?

Imagine thinking nationalistic CCP narratives on Taiwan deserve deference or to be further normalized.

Angry netizens don't dictate Beijing policy. And behind rhetoric even hawkish 🇨🇳 policy cadres are bound by pragmatism. Deterrence makes cost of military recklessness clear

https://twitter.com/jwdwerner/status/1645794698966224900

I've argued in numerous in-person conversations in the past week that I am not remotely worried that China will seek to assault or blockade Taiwan within yrs, or even this decade!

(For the record, I predicted correctly as of Dec 2021 that Russia would invade Ukraine.)

"Mechanisms and impacts of Earth system tipping elements"

If you’ve ever been interested in climate tipping elements, check out this new review article from myself and co-authors in @theAGU Reviews of Geophysics.

Note: it’s a very long read!

Thread:🧵

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20… “we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts + knowledge gaps associated w 10 notable Earth system components proposed to be tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are approaching critical thresholds + whether shifts may manifest rapidly or over longer timescales.”

So Japan wants to co-burn green ammonia + hydrogen in existing coal + gas power plants.

By my calc replacing just 20% of coal burned annually in Japan w green ammonia would need ~80% of Australia's yearly electricity generation.

Co-burning NH3/H2 for power just doesn't scale!🧵 And this is the lower-bound electricity needed to replace just a fraction of coal burned for power in Japan!

Now add in co-burning of H2 for gas, more power-hungry (potentially significantly) blue H2 from CCS, fuel-cell cars, green H2/NH3 demand from Korea, Taiwan, Singapore...

Recent stories on anti-nuclear issues in Taiwan show Geiger readings on Lanyu Island, whose Indigenous ppl have long opposed an existing low-lvl nuclear waste site.

"radiation dose rate: 0.0372-0.0376 uSv/hr"

(This is very low. Everyday radiation dose in Japan is 0.05 uSv/hr.) But data alone won't heal distrust + resentment.

- The facility was deceptively forced on the community decades ago in 1982.
- Residents worry the waste may not be a hazard now, but that could change in the future.

One story by @amyyqin @amy_changchien:

nytimes.com/2023/01/05/wor…

Six killed, 47 workers missing in a terrible coal mine accident in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region within China, after the wall of the coal pit collapsed. Rescue efforts underway.

37.97N, 105.66E

reuters.com/world/china/ch… It took a long time to find the mine, scanning many coal open pits dotting the south mountains of Inner Mongolia, bordering the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.

Turns out it's 100km south of Alasha Ayimag (Alxa League) despite state reporting describing the mine as near that town.

I wonder which one of us gives off the air of being more outraged at the moment? 🤣

For the record, all I did was call his article "amusing" and say it "quite spectacularly jumps the shark". Never attacked his character, yet the dude with 282100 followers leaps to ad hominem.

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1626860283552763904

As most on #energytwitter can attest I'm actually quite nice to most folks + in person.

Let's just say I have good reasons to be critical of takes fired casually from the hip when it comes to E. Asia/geopolitics/climate/energy.

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1626857780463431682?s=20

This article by @Noahpinion amused me.

It seeks to explain why China can't quit coal energy, and is adding renewables on top of coal rather than retiring coal.

But it's a surface-level, highly incomplete explanation. Here's what's missing.🧵

noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-must-s… Noah's explanations for China's continued marriage to coal-fired energy are essentially as follows:

- addiction to low-quality investment to drive economic growth

- internal power politics that favor perpetuation of coal economy and the jobs/local econ activity it creates

In light of human rights issues associated with solar PV manufacturing in Xinjiang, what general principles should guide ethical diversification of the solar PV supply chain?

@juzel_lloyd and I have assembled a list of policy + industry recommendations.

thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/… 1. Diversify solar manufacturing by establishing new, alternative, responsible manufacturing capacity globally.

2. Establish strong standards for int’l solar markets + trade

3. Accelerate research, development, deployment of alternative solar tech + manufacturing approaches

“It is time for the solar industry to accept that—if it is truly committed to ethically sourcing solar equipment—it will be easier to just go all-in on building new large manufacturing capacity outside China.”

In my latest essay I’m out of patience. 🧵

thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/… “You can’t fix what you can’t talk about. And if the climate community still can’t even talk meaningfully about Xinjiang, then it’s time to stop pretending the solar supply chain problem is anywhere close to being solved.”

See also, our recent report:

thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…

I took some time to think on the provocative new @cpluscp report on lithium + transportation.

- demand reduction modeling overstates ability to avert near-term lithium demand
- thus key challenge today is articulating how to mine fairly + well at scale.

thebreakthrough.org/issues/infrast… Valuable work by @triofrancos @ProfAKendall @kiram____ @BatulMH + co-authors. Really appreciate this quantitative approach to transit/lithium Qs.

I do think modeled max values for avoidable Li demand are aggressive due to scale of society changes assumed.
climateandcommunity.org/more-mobility-…