November Toronto Real Estate market analysis - complete! Some wacky stuff this month, as you can read in the blog post. But as always, some highlights here - and this month LOTS of bonus charts. #TorRE /1 areacode416homes.com/november-2019-…
One thing that's surprised me has been the rapid acceleration in price growth for 416 condo apts. Here are the YoY price increases reported in the last 3 months.
Sept: +3.3%
Oct: +9.6%
Nov: +10.9%
I was waiting on Nov to see if Oct was a fluke. Guess not. /2
Looking at all housing types, the GTA just reached its highest price growth shown this year, at 7.1%. The first 8 months of the year were all below 4% for the total GTA number. /3
Though sales volumes are up over last year, a lot of the price pressure is due to a decline in active listings (supply). Rapid decline in this GTA-wide stat too, versus last year:
Sept: -14.1%
Oct: -18.8%
Nov: -27.2% 👀
Saying buyers had 27% less properties to choose from. /4
Same story for GTA new listings (came out in the month).
Sept: -1.9%
Oct: -9.6%
Nov: -17.9% 👀
That happened quickly. /5
The increasing sales and decreasing inventory has led to a tightening of the market unusual for a November. Check out these low months of inventory (active listings ➗ sales). These all indicate "seller's market" conditions. /6
Sales and dollar volumes have already surpassed 2018 full-year totals. In the 905 they surpassed them in October. /7
Here's apples to apples: YTD November comparisons. 905 has looked better all year because 416 recovered more last year so 905 coming from lower base. /8
I've been forecasting 88,000 for the year for the past few months and that still sounds about right. That would put it in line with the non-boom years this decade (i.e. ignoring the volume record-setting 2015 and 2016). /9
Here are 5-year CAGRs for 416 avg prices.
-HOUSES peaked at 13.90% in spring 2017 and have come down to 7.88%, closer to the 20-year rate of 7.14%
-CONDOS are sitting at 10.59%, much higher than the 20-year rate of 6.89%. I don't think that's sustainable. #regressiontothemean /10
But as long as Condo Active Listings stay ridiculously low, they may stay up for awhile. I talk about it a lot in the blog post as #1 factor driving stupid price increases. Since Oct 2016, 20 of the 38 months have had YoY price increases of 10% or more. #silly /11
This shows just how crazy low 416 Condo Active Listings are right now. Used to be ~twice as many condos on the market as houses. Houses are about 100 higher than the avg for the decade right now, so acting the same. But you can clearly see condo listings have ⬇️. /12
Condo sales are right at the 10-year average, but condo active listings at the end of November were 38% below average. That's going to put upward pressure on prices. /13
416 Freehold sales are still slowly recovering. The 13,162 is 12% higher than what it was at last year at this time, but still about 2,700 sales below the 10 year average (and 3,100 below the long-term average). Still lower than any other previous bottoms too. /14
As always, you can access the full set of monthly charts through the blog, but here's a direct link. 15/ slideshare.net/ScottIngramCPA…
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Crazy shifts this week as the fall market has officially kicked off. 🍂
Let's start with Freeholds. Note that weekly bump. Higher than any fall in the last 7 (but for one week of 3,040 in 2018) and it's only first week of fall season. 🧵/1
The week-over-week (w/w) change was ⬆️428 listings for Freeholds (houses). Below's the equivalent week in the last 7 years. Usually the weeks leading up to and including Labour Day ⬇️w/w and then things start to grow.
2018 +324
2019 +258
2020 +320
2021 +248
2022 +135
2023 +213
2024 +428
/2
Here's a different look. Number of Freehold listings 0-7 DOM:
9/3: 314 (was 298 week before)
9/10: 962
Tripled! Now, a bunch of those are going to be re-listings ("Hey let's terminated and put it back fresh after Labour Day"), but a bunch are brand new too. /3
Here's a rental eviction story a friend of mine is letting me share, from the N12 notice (family member) to the recently concluded LTB hearing. So grab a ☕️, sit back 🪑, and read this 🧵 to see the outcome. /1
July 2020 - "I texted him at 9:30am asking about cockroaches I had seen in the apartment in the last few weeks.. he replied a few hours later asking me if the type and let me know his mom would be moving in.. all in the same message with the 🙏at the end. Next day sent N12." /2
He'd lived there 9 YEARS.
"I had a feeling it was bullshit but really what could I do with no proof.. I was tempted to stay and wait for it to get tied up in the LTB, some part of me believed it was possible he was being truthful."
Since CBC Marketplace likes investigating, I thought I'd do my own investigation on the house in the Real Estate "exposé" that aired last night, which centered around this house in Vaughan. Here's a bit more info for you in this 🧵/1
The owner was complaining about how they listed on the MLS offering to pay 1% commission to the "co-operating brokerage" (buyer's agent), which is short of the more common 2.5% commission offered in the GTA market. She claimed that agents were "steering" their clients away. /2
The CBC investigation with the large sample size of 3 agents, found 2 of them appearing to discourage their buyers (don't know if they were actually clients because they didn't mention if they'd actually signed Buyer Representation Agreements, which is no small matter). /3
So CBC is running a show tonight (which I'm PRVing). Here's the article previewing it. I got emails this afternoon from TRREB and OREA about it this aft, so it might be getting some play.
Here's the Sept 2nd RECO bulletin referred to by TRREB above, and in the article where it said RECO "issued a notic ice about steering to the over 93,000 real estate agents, brokers and brokerages under its purview." /3
TRREB has released its September #torontorealestate numbers. They like to accentuate the stats that would indicate everything is awesome, but let me point out 5⃣ STATS SHOWING MARKET COOLING ❄️ /1
First let me say it's not a COLD market yet by any means. But problem is everyone just likes to look at YoY change. When you think about it, 12 months is a somewhat arbitrary period to compare to. So September sales are way ⬆️(42%) and average prices are also ⬆️ (14%) /2
1⃣ AVERAGE YoY PRICE GROWTH IS SLOWING.
In July it was +16.9%
In August it was +20.1%
In September that slowed right down to +14.0%
Note a good chunk of the price growth is due to mix (less condo apts, more detached). /3
Some weekly #torontorealestate sales numbers in this thread. Firstly, week over week pattern this year continued to follow same as last year (only couple of deviations on here, main one being Labour Day one week later this year). /1
The total sales in the 416 in the past 4 weeks cumulative have been just 1% below 2019, with this week being flat. /2
But "tale of two cities" continues, with freehold (lowrise houses) selling stronger than last year and condos (apts and townhouses combined) selling weaker of late (and didn't show the huge "pent-up demand" that houses did. /3