Austin Lieberman Profile picture
Dec 12, 2019 8 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/I’m rereading 100 Baggers by @chriswmayer. Another great book is Intelligent Fanatics by @iancassel and @iddings_sean.

These two books could be the only “investing books” you need to read for life-changing investment returns for normal people who invest.

A thread
2/ the book is based on a study of stocks that returned 100 times your money (or more).

This turns $10k into $1million.

These stocks are more common than one would think.
3/ but finding them is only half (or less) of the battle. You gotta hold on to them.
4/ our short termism makes the holding on part extra hard.

This is something I need to improve and will be my focus moving forward.

I’m 30 and barring unforeseen circumstances, have many years of contributions to my portfolio ahead.
5/ many “professionals” have found success using crazy strategies... that’s great, but these aren’t accessible to the everyday public.

The methodology @chriswmayer, @iancassel, @iddings_sean, @themotleyfool, and @DavidGFool outline is 100% accessible for folks like you and me
6/ probably the most important point. Investing thing way gives you time to do what’s most important in life (not stare at screens and the market)

I need to work on this as well...#2020goals
7/ some attributes of 100 baggers
Size is small
Quality is high
Growth in earnings (/sales) is high
Longevity
Price is favorable for good returns.

Price is probably the hardest part here
8/ investing this way requires vision to see the future, courage to buy, and patience to hold. Patience being the hardest part.

Couple 100 baggers from the book: $AMZN $MNST $TSCO $TJX

Tagging some friends @FoolMCochrane @TMFInnovator @chitchatmoney @investing_city @FromValue

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More from @LiebermanAustin

Nov 14, 2023
Over the last 20 years, how many stocks do you think have 100x’d?

27

Some of these are still very low quality, speculative companies so I added additional filters:

10 year revenue growth > 1% per year
10 year diluted EPS growth of over 1% per year. Image
With those very simple filters, we’re down to 12 companies that have 100x’d over the last 20 years.

Here they are.
$TPL
$NFLX
$NVDA
$WT
$MNST
$MYRG
$ISRG
$DECK
$AAPL
$WPM.TO Image
Just for fun and because I wanted to include $XPEL here’s a list of stocks that have 100x’d over the last 15 years

$XPEL
$NXST
$NFLX
$LAD
$ISTR
$NVDA
$NVMI
$CAR Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 24, 2023
My 8,194 subscriber email newsletter is on pace to generate $22,320 in subscription revenue and $40,000 from consulting revenue this year.

I started it in 2019 and over 60% of my subscribers have joined this year.

I have no short cuts but this is what has worked for me.
Before I get into what has worked lets cover things that don’t matter at all.

- Your newsletter name
- Your URL
- Your newsletter artwork
- The day/time you send
- Knowing your exact topic
- Perfect grammer
- Having a big following when you start
I have wasted a lot of time thinking about those things and 95% of that time was wasted.

Spending time on it stops you from doing the most important thing. Writing your newsletter.

You need two things to get started…
Read 23 tweets
Feb 20, 2023
🚨Personal Update🚨

Friday was my last day @ConvertKit. Sincere thank you to @nathanbarry and the team. I truly enjoyed working together.

Today, I joined @beehiiv to help @denk_tweets build the Ad network.

I'm also moving my newsletter from @SubstackInc to beehiiv
I've been thinking about switching to beehiiv for a while and I finally made the leap for these reasons.

1. I didn't like sharing 10% of my paid revenue
2. Increased monetization through the Ad network
3. Beehiiv's integrated referral program
4. Amazing customizability
Most newsletter authors don't earn enough revenue to go full-time (mine doesn't).

Now @beehiiv publishers have multiple options. They can have a premium subscription and keep 100% of the revenue and join the Ad network and let us find sponsors for them.

HUGE TIME SAVER
Read 7 tweets
Jan 17, 2023
Here's what $1,000 invested in the top 10 performing S&P 500 stocks since 2000 is worth today
1. $MNST $1.4M
2. $TSCO $1M
3. $ODFL $319K
4. $NVDA $190k
5. $AAPL $160k
6. $IDXX $120k
7. $ANSS $92k
8. $UNH $89k
9. $POOL $88k
10. $ORLY $76k

How can you find stocks like these early?
TAKEAWAY #1

The key factor in all of these returns is earnings per share growth.

It's so easy to overcomplicate investing.

Long-term outperformance is primarily driven by a company's ability to increase earnings per share.
TAKEAWAY #2

Truly sensational returns like $MNST and $TSCO

Require more than EPS growth.

They both benefitted from ~500%+ P/E Multiple expansion.

If you can find a stock positioned for sustainable EPS growth + P/E multiple expansion, you might be on to something
Read 21 tweets
Jan 2, 2023
Redfin provides home value estimates for over 92 million homes in 43 states and the District of Columbia

They expect 2023 to be the slowest housing market year since 2011

Here's what that means for the value of your home...
Slowdown coming but not 2008 style

"We expect home sales to sink to their lowest level in more than a decade as high mortgage rates keep housing costs up and prevent people from moving. High homeowner equity and a resilient job market will stave off a wave of foreclosures."
Affordability is the main problem thanks to higher rates and higher home prices

"We expect about 16% fewer existing home sales in 2023 than 2022, landing at 4.3 million, with would-be buyers pressing pause due mostly to affordability challenges"
Read 16 tweets
Dec 30, 2022
Jeff Bezos believes that stock prices are most closely correlated with cash flow. "It's such a straightforward number. Cash flow is what will drive shareholder returns"

Here are 5 market-beating companies trading at or below their historical free cash flow multiples
#1 Mastercard $MA
CAGR since 2007: 25.37%
S&P 500 CAGR: 8.53%

Historical FCF Growth Rate 21.8%
Average P/FCF: 31.53

Current P/FCF 33.48
Expected FCF growth
2023: 20%
2024: 21%
2025: 15%

Blue line = historical P/FCF
Orange line = P/FCF Growth Rate of 1
Dotted lines = estimates
#2 American Tower Corp $AMT
CAGR Since 2011: 14.3%
S&P 500 CAGR: 12.56%

Historical AFFO Growth Rate: 11.86%
Average P/AFFO: 23.28

Current P/AFFO: 21.60
Expected AFFO Growth:
2023: 4%
2024: 11%
Read 8 tweets

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