So @BetseyStevenson and have I spent the past few years writing a new Principles of Economics textbook that, we hope, represents our generation's understanding of the field we all know and love.
And after a long gestation, our triplets are finally ready to join the world!
@BetseyStevenson We’re super excited by our new books & hope you'll love them too.
Join us to celebrate with champagne & cake, the essential alcohol/sugar pick-me-up that we all need at #ASSA2020.
Stop by from today 4:30-5:30 at the Macmillan booth (#218) in the exhibitor hall in the Mariott.
@BetseyStevenson If you're wondering: Am I invited? The answer is yes. You are my Twitter friend & I want to celebrate with you. Come say g'day.
And if you're an instructor looking for a review copy, stop by & we'll hook you up. Read the book on the plane home, assign it when you land #ASSA2020
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1. Tariffmageddon isn't over: Lotsa tariffs to account for, but the average tariff rate is only down around one quarter.
2. He's not going to get big wins: Tariffs were low before this mess, and if Trump negotiates competently, they'll be low again. Basically no gain.
You've seen this movie before: It was NAFTA which got relabeled by Trump in 2020, but really barely changed.
3. The rationale for this policy keeps changing. Remember when it was all about bringing manufacturing home? (That was yesterday.) Now it's negotiating deals. Those are fundamentally in tension.
(I'm only going to build a factory in the US if tariffs are likely to persist.)
One thing I've learned to do when I have questions about social security number holders who are age 100 or older is to look up the SSA Inspector General audit report, "Numberholders Age 100 or Older Who Did Not Have Death Information on the Numident."
After all: Is there a principled difference between weighting on age (to ensure that your sample includes youngs and olds) and weighting on past vote (to ensure you get folks from across the political spectrum)?
Both age and past vote are:
- Predetermined (before this poll)
- Non-manipulable
- Though self-reported
- And we have good population estimates to weight them to.
What principle would make one of these a legitimate survey design weight and the other "herding"?
This decline in violent crime is evident in not just the FBI reports, but also an independent survey by the BJS.
If you don't trust data from G-men, the decline in homicide rates the FBI reports is also evident in a count of death certificates in which coroners cute homicide as the cause of death.