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Justin Wolfers Profile picture
@JustinWolfers
Jan 3, 2020 • 3 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
So @BetseyStevenson and have I spent the past few years writing a new Principles of Economics textbook that, we hope, represents our generation's understanding of the field we all know and love.

And after a long gestation, our triplets are finally ready to join the world!
@BetseyStevenson We’re super excited by our new books & hope you'll love them too.

Join us to celebrate with champagne & cake, the essential alcohol/sugar pick-me-up that we all need at #ASSA2020.

Stop by from today 4:30-5:30 at the Macmillan booth (#218) in the exhibitor hall in the Mariott.
@BetseyStevenson If you're wondering: Am I invited? The answer is yes. You are my Twitter friend & I want to celebrate with you. Come say g'day.

And if you're an instructor looking for a review copy, stop by & we'll hook you up. Read the book on the plane home, assign it when you land #ASSA2020

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More from @JustinWolfers

Justin Wolfers Profile picture
May 12
Important news from US-China trade talks:
1. The US will cut the rate at which it taxes Americans who buy stuff from China, to 30%
2. China will cut the rate at which it taxes Chinese folks who buy stuff from the US, to 10%.

It's another Ross and Rachel moment: A 90-day pause.
This is good news.

It means less inflationary pressure in both countries.

It means less disruption for business in both countries.
There are two ways to frame this news:
1. U.S. trade policy and our macroeconomic prospects are much better today than they were yesterday
2. U.S. trade policy and our macroeconomic prospects are much worse today than on Inauguration day

Both are true.
Read 8 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
May 9
It's a "deal," not a deal:
"This document serves to define the general terms for the EPD that set forth the shared desires of the US and the UK... Both the US and the UK recognize that this document does not constitute a legally binding agreement."

ustr.gov/sites/default/…Image
My favorite bit: The filename is:
"US UK EPD_050825_FINAL rev v2.pdf"
(don't know why they didn't include "_latestDJT")

That title might also yield a hint as to why the press conference started late.
Here's the "unprecedented access to UK market" that Lutnick promised:

"The UK and the US plan to work constructively in an effort to enhance agricultural market access. Further, both countries positively support future discussions to strengthen bilateral agricultural trade. " Image
Read 5 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
May 2
Phew.

Payrolls grew a relatively uninteresting (and positive!) +177k in April, and unemployment was unchanged at 4.2%.

This economy is still humming along.

NOTE: This is a reading largely from the pre-tariff period. Still very foggy about what lies ahead.
Revisions were somewhat worrying: March was revised down -43k to +185k. Feb down -15k to +102k.

Three month average payrolls growth -- a useful indicator of the underlying pace of job growth -- is a healthy +155k. That's a pretty great place to be at this point in the cycle.
Nominal wage growth was 0.2% this month, and are up 3.8% over the year. That's probably enough to keep inflation above the Fed's target (and that's before factoring in the effect of tariffs).

The period of disinflation may be over.
Read 8 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Apr 30
Ugh. It's happening. The economy shrank in the first quarter, at an annual rate of -0.3%.

The good news: Consumption and investment remained strong. Think of this as a hard-to-interpret report due to -- **all of this**. Remember, this is the average of Q1, and the real concern is about Q2.Image
Look into the details, and the GDP report really isn't that bad. (We already know from the jobs data that the economy did okay in Q1.)

@jasonfurman suggested focusing on Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (basically C+I, the reliable parts of GDP) which grew +3.0% Image
The sharp rise in investment appears to be almost all due to pre-tariff front-running. Investment contributed 3.6%-pts to Q1 GDP growth.

Of that, inventory accumulation was 2.2%-pts.

And an additional 1.1% came from equipment investment (which is what the China tariffs hit).
Read 6 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Apr 9
Biggest mistakes I'm seeing in early reporting:

1. Tariffmageddon isn't over: Lotsa tariffs to account for, but the average tariff rate is only down around one quarter.
2. He's not going to get big wins: Tariffs were low before this mess, and if Trump negotiates competently, they'll be low again. Basically no gain.

You've seen this movie before: It was NAFTA which got relabeled by Trump in 2020, but really barely changed.
3. The rationale for this policy keeps changing. Remember when it was all about bringing manufacturing home? (That was yesterday.) Now it's negotiating deals. Those are fundamentally in tension.

(I'm only going to build a factory in the US if tariffs are likely to persist.)
Read 5 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Feb 17
One thing I've learned to do when I have questions about social security number holders who are age 100 or older is to look up the SSA Inspector General audit report, "Numberholders Age 100 or Older Who Did Not Have Death Information on the Numident."

oig.ssa.gov/assets/uploads… x.com/elonmusk/statu…
It's a gripping read. It tells me, for instance, that 98 percent of these folks have received no payments. Image
Why are there dead people on (this one table of) the social security database? They died before the use of electronic death records. Image
Read 4 tweets

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