Ketan ACMA๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Profile picture
Jan 13, 2020 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 6 min read โ€ข Read on X
Polycab CMP 1029
๐Ÿ‘‰ Leader in the Wire & Cable Industry
๐Ÿ‘‰ Domestic Mkt share ~12%
๐Ÿ‘‰ Revenue (W&C 89%, FMEG 7%, EPC & Othr 4%)
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the early stage of transition from a commodity cable manufacturer to a branded consumer durable player

#Polycab
#StockMarket
#stockstowatch Image
๐—ข๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—–๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป
๐Ÿ‘‰ Consistent track record & has delivered a topline growth of >15% in last 4 yrs
๐Ÿ‘‰ Earning growth has outpaced the topline due to richer product mix & an expansion in operating margins
๐Ÿ‘‰ ROC has improved: 16% (FY16) 28% (FY19)
๐Ÿ‘‰ Enjoys a cash-rich B/S & remains well positioned to navigate the cyclical downturn
๐Ÿ‘‰ Strong distribution network (3300+ authorized dealers, ~30 warehouses) to cater >1lakh retail outlets
๐Ÿ‘‰ High degree of backward integration helps to reduce RM price volatility

#polycab Image
๐Ÿ‘‰ It has strong B2B focus. Its B2C presence (25% sales) continues to improve with the expansion in FMEG space
๐Ÿ‘‰ 50:50 JV with Trafigura to set up a 225k MT copper wire rod mfging facility in Gujarat (Reducing dependency on copper external sourcing)
๐Ÿ‘‰ 24 mfging facilities Image
๐Ÿ‘‰ It had invested 1100 crs in last 5 yrs to enhance mfging capacity of W&C
๐Ÿ‘‰ Despite being an asset heavy biz model with in-house mfging, it generates healthy return thru prudent capital allocation & working capital Mgt

#Stocktowatch
#polycab
#StockMarket
#Stock2020
๐—–๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฌ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ
๐Ÿ‘‰ Continues to post healthy numbers Qtr after Qtr
๐Ÿ‘‰ Sales & Op profit grew 24% & 26% in Q2
๐Ÿ‘‰ 42% Sales growth in FMEG due to expansion in Dist Network & new product launches
๐Ÿ‘‰ Strong project execution drove revenues in the EPC
๐—™๐— ๐—˜๐—š ๐—•๐—ถ๐˜‡
๐Ÿ‘‰ At Nascent stage
๐Ÿ‘‰ Grew @ 57% CAGR in 2016 to 2018
๐Ÿ‘‰ Competitive intensity remains high as the segment is very crowded
๐Ÿ‘‰ Ramping up its presence in this vertical by leveraging the existing Dist Network & increasing market visibility thru brand development
๐—ฅ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ธ
๐Ÿ‘‰ High degree of fluctuations in the RM prices. However, it claims that they are successful in passing the increased RM cost to customers
๐Ÿ‘‰ It imports majority of its commodities, currency fluctuations also hits the margins Image
๐—ข๐˜‚๐˜๐—น๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ
๐Ÿ‘‰ Slowdown will act as a catalyst for industry consolidation & aid the shift of Mkt share gains frm the unorganized to the organized segment
๐Ÿ‘‰ W&C Mkt in India is growing 10%-12% & the current Mkt size is ~52k crores
๐Ÿ‘‰ Expansion in retail a big trigger Image
๐Ÿ‘‰ Continue to expand on the back of GOI focus on Power, Infrstructure & affordable Housing
๐Ÿ‘‰ Electrical vehicles a big trigger as it manufactures critical components of the electricity value chain
๐Ÿ‘‰ Consumer facing retail brand contribute ~40% of its topline in the nxt 4-5 yrs
๐Ÿ‘‰ Polycab valuations seem reaonable at CMP
๐Ÿ‘‰ Marquee brand and sticky clientele
๐Ÿ‘‰ Expect steady earning growth coupled with economies of scale & change in biz mix could drive the value migration

@SagarRV1 @stockifi_Invest @AnyBodyCanFly @Rishikesh_ADX @koolvicky @nid_rockz

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More from @ketanmba03

Nov 29, 2020
The Journey of Vini Costmetics
โœ๏ธ1985: Darshan Patel joins his father's co Paras Pharmaceuticals
โœ๏ธ1994: Launched Krack which was an overnight success
โœ๏ธ1996-2000: Launched a range of products(D-Cold, Borosoft,Ring Guard,Itch Guard)
โœ๏ธ2002: Launched Livon-IND's 1st hair detangler
โœ๏ธ2005: Set Wet hairstyling gel is launched and later a deodrant under the same brand name
โœ๏ธ2006: Patel exits Paras. He sold his 24% stake to Actis Capital for $43 Mn
โœ๏ธ2007: Registered Vini Costmetics and spend the next couple of years doing consumer research
โœ๏ธ2010: Vini Costmetics was launched; started selling pharma products; WhiteTone was launched; Paras Pharmaceuticasl was acquired by Reckitt Benckiser Group for INR 3260 Crs
โœ๏ธ2011: Launched Fogg deodorants; Bay Capital came on board, investing 30 Crs
Read 5 tweets
Nov 28, 2020
Aurobindo CMP 868
The company is developing:
โœ๏ธ14 Biosimilars (5 of these expected to launch by FY25 with a US$20 market size)
โœ๏ธ8 inhalers (US market size is >$10 Bn)
โœ๏ธPneumcoccal Conjugate Vaccine (US$6.2 bn global market size)
โœ๏ธ3 depot injectables (US$3.3 bn market size)
Co also developing 50 Other Complex generics
โœ๏ธPeptides (US$14.5 Bn Mkt size-Global $2.5 bn size for 5 filed ANDAs and Global $12bn for 10 under development)
โœ๏ธTopicals (US$4 Bn Mkt size-26 products under development currently out of total 37 products identified for development)
โœ๏ธTransdermal patches (US$3 Bn Global Mkt size) : 8 products under development (Clinical trials to begin for the 1st product in FY21)
โœ๏ธNasals (US$1.3 Bn Mkt size) : 1 approved + 4 under development (Filing will be done over the course of next 3 yrs)
#Aurobindopharma
#Growth
Read 14 tweets
Nov 23, 2020
โœ๏ธIND's Renewable Energy sector is world's 4th most attractive RE Mkt
โœ๏ธGlobally, Cost to generate Solar & Wind Energy dropped by 90% & 70% in past 10 yrs
โœ๏ธCosts almost at par with NG
โœ๏ธRE is estimated to comprise ~60% of INDโ€™s installed power capacity by 2030 (~24% at present)
โœ๏ธGlobal Investments in RE: $282 Bn in 2019
โœ๏ธ45% cming frm China, who aims to get 62% energy via RE in nxt 3 yrs
โœ๏ธBy 2040, IND aims to generate ~49% of total Electricity frm RE
โœ๏ธFDI inflow in the Indian non-conventional โ€œenergy sectorโ€ stood at $9.22B in last 10 years
โœ๏ธMore than $42B has been invested in INDโ€™s โ€œREโ€ sector since 2014
โœ๏ธEstimated to attract investment ~$80B in nxt 4 yrs
โœ๏ธThe past 9 months have slowed the Solar Energy installations by 80% v/s 2019 due to Covid
โœ๏ธ2020-Cumulative solar capacity is ~37 GW
โœ๏ธ2022-Tgt is 100 GW
Read 7 tweets
Sep 26, 2020
Valiant Organics CMP 2795
โœ๏ธA Specialty Chemical Manufacturing Company.
โœ๏ธThe products of the company find several applications mainly in the agro-chemical, pharmaceuticals, rubber, dyes, pigment & in the making of veterinary drugs
โœ๏ธFully integrated manufacturing facilities
โœ๏ธRevenue: Domestic 85% & Export 15%
(Agro 40%,Specialty 30%,Dyes+Pigments 20%,API 10%)
โœ๏ธRev. share from API is likely to increase in coming yrs
โœ๏ธOne of the most competitive producers of Chlorination, Ammonolysis,Acylation,Hydrogenation & Methoxylation based specialty products
โœ๏ธInorganic growth & organic capital expansion without much increase in Debt Equity
โœ๏ธLeveraging a de-risked biz model
โœ๏ธThe synergistic acquisition of Amarjyot chemical ltd last year
โœ๏ธAbility to forward integrate by adding high-margin & high value products to maximise growth
Read 9 tweets
Apr 26, 2020
IndusInd Bank CMP 380
โœ Stock fell frm 2038 high to 235
โœ Decreasing deposits
โœ Rising bad loans
โœ High exposure to telecom companies & NBFCs
โœ Exit of a long-time CEO
โœ Crisis at #yesbank has put question mark on rest of the private lenders
โœ Stock corrected 68% in March
Journey from 2035 to 235
โœ Dec 2017 - RBI imposes INR 3 Crs penalty for under-reporting of FY16 NPAs

โœ Apr 2018 - Reports divergence in FY17 NPAs of INR 1350 Crs frm RBI's estimates

โœ Sep 2018 - Discloses exposure of INR 3000 Crs to IL&FS, a crisis-ridden NBFC
#IndusindBank
โœ July 2019 - Completes merger with Bharat Financial Inclusion

โœ Jan 2020 - Posts disappointing Q3, provisions up by 72%, gross NPAs more than double YoY, asset quality worsens, Mr Sobti set to retire in Mar'20

โœ Feb 2020 - Moody's downgrades Outlook to Negative from Stable
Read 5 tweets
Apr 25, 2020
The API Industry
โœ๏ธ The backbone of India pharma industry is the bulk drug industry
โœ๏ธ India has highest no. of US FDA approved plants (665) outside of the US
โœ๏ธ India has 44% of global abbreviated new drug applications (ANDA)
โœ๏ธ India needs to proactively boost the API Industry
โœ๏ธ The Indian pharma industry is the world's 3rd largest in terms of vol
โœ๏ธ India's API industry is ranked the 3rd largest in the world
โœ๏ธ India fulfils 20% of global demand for generic medicines in terms of Vol & supplies over 60% of global demand of various vaccines & ARV drugs
โœ๏ธ Indian bulk drug industry has grown at CAGR of 8.6% over 2016-2020. It is further expeacted to grow at similar CAGR during 2020-2024
โœ๏ธ The import of APIs has risen at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2012-2019
โœ๏ธ Bulk drug import reached a value of INR ~249 billion in 2019

@Harrshit1
Read 15 tweets

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