Ketan ACMA🇮🇳 Profile picture
Cost & Management Accountant || MBA (Fin) || Pursuing CIMA || Working in Chemical MNC || Student of Market || Lifelong Learner || Value Investing || Avid Reader
Vᴀʀᴜɴ Profile picture SAHIR S HAMID Profile picture NIL Profile picture njain Profile picture AKSHAY CHANGEDIA Profile picture 7 subscribed
Nov 29, 2020 5 tweets 1 min read
The Journey of Vini Costmetics
✍️1985: Darshan Patel joins his father's co Paras Pharmaceuticals
✍️1994: Launched Krack which was an overnight success
✍️1996-2000: Launched a range of products(D-Cold, Borosoft,Ring Guard,Itch Guard)
✍️2002: Launched Livon-IND's 1st hair detangler ✍️2005: Set Wet hairstyling gel is launched and later a deodrant under the same brand name
✍️2006: Patel exits Paras. He sold his 24% stake to Actis Capital for $43 Mn
✍️2007: Registered Vini Costmetics and spend the next couple of years doing consumer research
Nov 28, 2020 14 tweets 4 min read
Aurobindo CMP 868
The company is developing:
✍️14 Biosimilars (5 of these expected to launch by FY25 with a US$20 market size)
✍️8 inhalers (US market size is >$10 Bn)
✍️Pneumcoccal Conjugate Vaccine (US$6.2 bn global market size)
✍️3 depot injectables (US$3.3 bn market size) Co also developing 50 Other Complex generics
✍️Peptides (US$14.5 Bn Mkt size-Global $2.5 bn size for 5 filed ANDAs and Global $12bn for 10 under development)
✍️Topicals (US$4 Bn Mkt size-26 products under development currently out of total 37 products identified for development)
Nov 23, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
✍️IND's Renewable Energy sector is world's 4th most attractive RE Mkt
✍️Globally, Cost to generate Solar & Wind Energy dropped by 90% & 70% in past 10 yrs
✍️Costs almost at par with NG
✍️RE is estimated to comprise ~60% of IND’s installed power capacity by 2030 (~24% at present) ✍️Global Investments in RE: $282 Bn in 2019
✍️45% cming frm China, who aims to get 62% energy via RE in nxt 3 yrs
✍️By 2040, IND aims to generate ~49% of total Electricity frm RE
✍️FDI inflow in the Indian non-conventional “energy sector” stood at $9.22B in last 10 years
Sep 26, 2020 9 tweets 3 min read
Valiant Organics CMP 2795
✍️A Specialty Chemical Manufacturing Company.
✍️The products of the company find several applications mainly in the agro-chemical, pharmaceuticals, rubber, dyes, pigment & in the making of veterinary drugs
✍️Fully integrated manufacturing facilities ✍️Revenue: Domestic 85% & Export 15%
(Agro 40%,Specialty 30%,Dyes+Pigments 20%,API 10%)
✍️Rev. share from API is likely to increase in coming yrs
✍️One of the most competitive producers of Chlorination, Ammonolysis,Acylation,Hydrogenation & Methoxylation based specialty products
Apr 26, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
IndusInd Bank CMP 380
✍ Stock fell frm 2038 high to 235
✍ Decreasing deposits
✍ Rising bad loans
✍ High exposure to telecom companies & NBFCs
✍ Exit of a long-time CEO
✍ Crisis at #yesbank has put question mark on rest of the private lenders
✍ Stock corrected 68% in March Journey from 2035 to 235
✍ Dec 2017 - RBI imposes INR 3 Crs penalty for under-reporting of FY16 NPAs

✍ Apr 2018 - Reports divergence in FY17 NPAs of INR 1350 Crs frm RBI's estimates

✍ Sep 2018 - Discloses exposure of INR 3000 Crs to IL&FS, a crisis-ridden NBFC
Apr 25, 2020 15 tweets 9 min read
The API Industry
✍️ The backbone of India pharma industry is the bulk drug industry
✍️ India has highest no. of US FDA approved plants (665) outside of the US
✍️ India has 44% of global abbreviated new drug applications (ANDA)
✍️ India needs to proactively boost the API Industry ✍️ The Indian pharma industry is the world's 3rd largest in terms of vol
✍️ India's API industry is ranked the 3rd largest in the world
✍️ India fulfils 20% of global demand for generic medicines in terms of Vol & supplies over 60% of global demand of various vaccines & ARV drugs
Mar 22, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
Thank you, #Coronavirus

Thank you for shaking us & showing us we're dependent on something much bigger than we think..!!

Thank you for making us appreciate the luxury we lived in..abundance of realizing we were taking it for granted...!! Thank you, #Coronavirus for stopping make us see how lost we were in the "busy-ness"

Not having time for the most basic things..

Thank you for allowing us to put aside all our problems we thought were so important and showing us what is actually important..
Feb 24, 2020 9 tweets 6 min read
IOL Chemical CMP 255
✍️ Ibuprofen price increased from $15 to $18. Management expects it to touch $20
✍️ Recently, Dept. of pharmaceuticals has clarified that no ban has been proposed on export of APIs & formulations in the wake of coronavirus outbreak

✍️ IOLCP is having 30% World Mkt Share of Ibuprofen
✍️ 1 Ibuprofen manufacturer which has 15% world Mkt Share is in Hubei province & it is in complete shutdown due to coronavirus outbreak
✍️ Ibuprofen demand increased due to Supply Constraint
✍️ Co. is having 6 months Inventory Image
Feb 21, 2020 4 tweets 3 min read
👉 AMC biz: High operating leverage
👉 Fixed costs are relatively low in this biz
👉 MF Biz is fundamentally strong due to its high ROE, ROCE & FCF genearation
👉 High Dividend payout due to high FCF
👉 Both HDFC AMC & Nippon Life AMC generated massive >150% returns in past 1 yr Image 👉 India's MF Industry's consistent growth @21% CAGR (From 12.75 Lakh Crs to 27.26 lakh Crs in 2019)
👉 Equity MF and Debt MF grew at 4 year CAGR of 18% and 14% respectively
👉 Clear jump in equity funds and Hybrid funds of 62% to 152% in 2017

#mutualfunds ImageImage
Feb 16, 2020 11 tweets 7 min read
Sumitomo Chemical CMP 256
✍️ Formidable player in the Indian Agro-chem Space
✍️ Acquired Excel Corp(Generic agrochemical)
✍️ Combined entity is one of the largest agro-chem firms
✍️ The scale will help Japanese Co to derive better synergies
✍️ Merger of Excel crop unlocking value Diversified & De-risked Portfolio
✍️ Focus on high growth, profitable segments
✍️ Low dependance on individual products
✍️ Top 10 products contributes <50% of TSales
✍️ No product contributes >15% of TSales
✍️ Balanced Presence Across Key Sub-Segments of the Agro-Chem Value chain
Jan 24, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
👍 Polycab's impressive growth continued into Q3
👍 Revenue rose 24% QOQ
👍 Wires & Cables revenue jumped 21% on the back of one large size export order
👍 Fast Moving Electrical Goods segment sales jumped 34% on the back of strong volume growth

👍 A pick-up in project execution drove the revenue in EPC
👎 Significant jump in advertising & marketing expense hit margins
👍 Lower corp tax rate aided the bottomline
👎 The domestic demand scenario remain sluggish
👍 Eyeing growth thru increased penetration in export markets
Jan 13, 2020 11 tweets 6 min read
Polycab CMP 1029
👉 Leader in the Wire & Cable Industry
👉 Domestic Mkt share ~12%
👉 Revenue (W&C 89%, FMEG 7%, EPC & Othr 4%)
👉 In the early stage of transition from a commodity cable manufacturer to a branded consumer durable player

#stockstowatch Image 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
👉 Consistent track record & has delivered a topline growth of >15% in last 4 yrs
👉 Earning growth has outpaced the topline due to richer product mix & an expansion in operating margins
👉 ROC has improved: 16% (FY16) 28% (FY19)
Jan 8, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
Sudarshan Chemical CMP 438
✍️ 4th largest pigment manufacturer globally
✍️ Aspiring to bcum 3rd largest in the nxt 3 yrs
✍️ Expected exit frm pigments biz by its 2 Big global competitors #BASF & #Clariant which is worth ~$10Bn
✍️ Continously gained mkt share over the past few yrs ✍️ SCIL has 2% global mkt revenue share of the organics pigment mkt
✍️ The exit of global biggies wil help SCIL to improve mkt share
✍️ Dominates Indian Pigment Ind. with 35% mkt share
✍️ Key positives: Low cost mfging advantage,Technical capabilities & Environmental compliance
Jan 5, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
Jamna Auto CMP 46
✍️ Market leader with 70% share in OEM leaf & parabolic springs
✍️ Cliant Base: Big players Tata, Toyota, Mahindra, GM, Ashok Leyland & volvo
✍️ Added capacity thru modernisation of existing plants & expansion
✍️ Planned new units: Pithampur(MP) & Adityapur(JH) ✍️ CV industry facing slowdown due to deceleration in the economy, liquity crunch & revised axle norms
✍️ The cost of change to BS-VI emission norms could adversly impact the demand of the CVs
✍️ This impact could be short term as implementation would be settle in coming months
Dec 20, 2019 5 tweets 3 min read
Minda Corp 93 Mcap 2115 Crs
✍️Posted an in-line set of nos amid the weakness in the global automobile sector
✍️Shifting consumer preference towards premium vehicles & new emission norms are expected to increase content per vehicle & boost MCL's growth

#Auotmobile ✍️YoY 5% drop in revenue in Q2 mainly due to 22% fall in information & connected system biz which caters to commercial vehicles industry
✍️The India biz contracted 15% YoY due to a decline in the volumes of commercial vehicles (39%) & 2 wheelers (16%)

Dec 20, 2019 5 tweets 4 min read
Marico CMP 337
👎Uninspiring performance over the last 1 year
👎Headwinds in the hair oil segment have hurt recent operational performance
👍25% of the hair oil market is still in the unorganized space and this offers growth opportunity

#FMCG 👍H2 FY20 would see better volume growth due to price cuts
👍Improvement in gross margins due to the lower prices for RM
👍In Q2 FY20, copra prices were lower by 10% YoY & Mgt expects prices to remain in lower range in near term
👎Vol growth was also hurt by flood like situations
Dec 7, 2019 4 tweets 2 min read
Mishra Dhatu Nigam CMP 150
👉 Engaged in Mfg., development & supply of critical alloys
👉 Only manufacturer of titanium alloys in India
👉 Strategic material partner to the Indian defence, space & power sectors
👉 Robust Financial performance
👉 Strong 💪 Order Book
#Midhani 👉Growth driving expansion strategies. The commercial production of Vehicle & Personnel Armouring products at company's plant at Rohtak is likely to commence by the end of FY20

👉 Successfully completed 1st commercial Bullet Proof Vehicles to the CAPF in Mar'19

Dec 7, 2019 4 tweets 4 min read
10 Important lessons for investors
✍️The upside potential of equity returns is only earned by those willing to patiently bear the pain of down markets

✍️Market timing cannot be done in a way that consistently & reliably outperforms a buy, hold & rebalance strategy

#equity4life ✍️Identify your near & intermediate term cash flow needs & insulate them from the volatility of the stock market

✍️Diversification works over time, but not necessarily all the time

✍️Rebalancing allows you to systematically sell high & buy low

#stock #stocks #StockMarket
Dec 6, 2019 8 tweets 4 min read
Dixon Technologies CMP 3435
👉Revenues for Q2 FY20 surged 90% YOY
👉Consumer electronics drove the top line growth
👉Gross margin improved, operating margins stable
👉Planning capacity exapnsion across multiple biz lines
👉A play to ride the Make-in-India theme
#DixonTechnologies 👉Biz continues to exhibit strength on most fronts even as consumer demadn is weakening due to slowing domestic economy
👉Strong volume offtake from Xiaomi (major client)
👉enjoy 50% market share in the lighting biz
👉Supplies to all major cos like CG, Syska, Philips, Orient etc
Dec 1, 2019 4 tweets 3 min read
Gas Distribution companies!
- Reported decent performance in the Jul-Sep quarter
- Soft LNG prices aided margin expansion
- Growth Outlook strong
- Sectoral tailwinds put Gas stocks in sweet spot
- Seen sharp run-up in stocks in past few months
#cleanenergy - An increased focus on clean energy, a switch to natural gas and substantial price difference b/w Gas and competing fuels augur well for Gas marketing companies
- lower spot LNG prices and new corporate tax rates contributed to better profit margins
- Environmental concerns
Nov 16, 2019 8 tweets 4 min read
Hikal CMP 112
- Q2 revenue slumped by 19% YoY
- 21% YoY de-growth in crop protection biz
- 17% YoY decline in pharma biz
- Crop protection biz impacted due to multiple headwinds
👉Client end inventory destocking impacted top line
👉Flooding resulted in temporary shutdown at Mahad 👉Taloja plant impated due to reduced supply of water
- Pharma biz was impacted by
👉Elevated inventory at customer's end
👉Planned plant shutdown at Bengaluru facility
- Improved gross margin but EBITDA was impacted by adverse operating leverage