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Jon Hartley Profile picture
@Jon_Hartley_
Jan 19, 2020 • 3 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Hi @MayorDanGelber, can we retire these #USA flags at 41st Street and Alton Road and replace them with new ones? Their ends are torn and they have done their service. Happy to help donate new ones cc: @MiamiBeachNews @MiamiHerald #USA #America #KeepAmericaGreat #SuperBowlLIV
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Thank you @MayorDanGelber for fixing the American flags! The new flags on 41st Street look fantastic! @MiamiBeachNews

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More from @Jon_Hartley_

Jon Hartley Profile picture
Jun 10
"The Elastic Markets Hypothesis" new paper w Felix Gerding. Using country index additions/subtractions, we find multipliers (of flows on stock market prices) are not as high or permanent as recent lit. Stock market demand may be inelastic in short-run but is elastic in long-run🧵 Image
Full "Elastic Markets Hypothesis" Paper is here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
The literature demand curves for stocks really begins with Shleifer's famous "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?" which uses index reconstitution (note for micro elasticities)
jstor.org/stable/2328486… Image
Much of our paper has been written in response to recent literature starting w/ Gabaix and Koijen (2021) ("Inelastic Markets Hypothesis") who argue that multipliers are as high as 5 & are permanently high. To be clear these are macro not micro mutlipliers nber.org/papers/w28967
Read 10 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
May 20
🚨There has been a massive surge in Generative AI/LLM tool use in 2025. An update to our paper "The Labor Market Effects of Generative AI" tracking LLM adoption using surveys (finding LLM use at work has increased ~30% to ~40% in 2025). Thread🧵along w other evidence of the surge Image
Our U.S. survey evidence has found significant increases in Gemini and ChatGPT use during this period of time. ChatGPT and Gemini remain the most widely used tools. Image
Google search data from Google Trends suggests that searches for "ChatGPT" both in the US and Worldwide have roughly doubled in 2025. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Apr 15
A new @voxeu column of mine w/ Alessandro Rebucci (@arebucci1): "Tariffs, the dollar, and equities: High-frequency evidence from the Liberation Day announcement". Some key figures and a thread🧵 on how global financial markets have responded since 4/2/2025 cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…
The post-Liberation Day depreciation of the USD is surprising as it is contrary to predictions of standard international macroeconomic models and the evidence (including from the first Trump tariffs) that domestic currency exchange rates shift to offset a tariff by appreciating. Image
Interestingly, the USD depreciation was largely against G10 currencies. EM currencies like South African rand (ZAR), Thai baht (THB), & Vietnamese dong (VND) all depreciated considerably vs the USD. Below are 10 most flexible DM & EM currencies according to Ilzetzki et al (2022) Image
Read 9 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Apr 9
New paper on ***Survey R-star***, which we need to all start using. Model-based r-star (eg Laubach-Williams) have massive standard errors. Instead we should increasingly use median survey estimates from recently developed central bank surveys🧵
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…Image
Model-based estimates of r-star have been divergent since the pandemic. Laubach-Williams has been falling while Lubik-Matthes moving upward. How do we know what we can trust when both have massive standard errors? Turning to surveys and median-survey estimates can meaningfully help.Image
In roughly the past decade, the Fed, Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Canada have started central bank surveys of market participants asking about their estimates of r-star or their estimates of the policy rate "in the long run". Piecing this survey data together, we can create a *survey r-star* seriesImage
Read 8 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Feb 14
New Gen AI paper🚨: "The Labor Market Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence" with Filip Jolevski (@FilipJole), Vitor Melo (@MeloVitor_), and Brendan Moore (@BrendanDMoore). papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…Image
Our headline takeaway: 30.1% of survey respondents above 18 have used Generative AI at work since Generative AI tools became public, consistent with other survey estimates such as those of Pew and Bick, Blandin, and Deming (2024) (which instead uses Qualtrics; we use IncQuery). Image
With respect to education, we find in our survey more educated workers are more likely to use Generative AI (consistent with the surveys of Pew and Bick, Blandin, and Deming (2024)). Nearly 50% of those in the sample with a graduate degree use Generative AI. Image
Read 20 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Dec 7, 2024
A thread🧵on my new paper: "Does Government Debt Management Matter? High Frequency Identification From U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements" with Lorenzo Rigon (1/N) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…Image
Government debt management is a classic question in macroeconomics and finance: if the government has to issue X in debt, how much should it issue at different tenors/maturities? (2/N)
Theoretical answers have ranged from 100% perpetuities (Barro (1997)/Angeletos (2002)), to more short-term debt (Greenwood Hanson and Stein (2015), arguing T-bills are like money) to 100% Treasury bills (Alan Blinder once argued if the yield curve is normally upward sloping) (3/N)
Read 12 tweets

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