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Jon Hartley Profile picture
@Jon_Hartley_
Jan 19, 2020 • 3 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Hi @MayorDanGelber, can we retire these #USA flags at 41st Street and Alton Road and replace them with new ones? Their ends are torn and they have done their service. Happy to help donate new ones cc: @MiamiBeachNews @MiamiHerald #USA #America #KeepAmericaGreat #SuperBowlLIV
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Thank you @MayorDanGelber for fixing the American flags! The new flags on 41st Street look fantastic! @MiamiBeachNews

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More from @Jon_Hartley_

Jon Hartley Profile picture
Mar 15
1/Chris Sims is easily one of the most influential macroeconomists (& perhaps most influential empirical macroeconomist) of the last 50 years; he fundamentally changed thinking about monetary policy, metrics,& causality (VARs, time series models). Thread on his greatest hits🧵👇 Image
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2/ "Macroeconomics and Reality" (Econometrica, 1980), introduced VARs to macroeconomics. Sims argued the identifying assumptions in large Keynesian macro models were "incredible". Argued macroeconomists should use VARs (vector autoregressions) as a more honest alternative. Completely changed the direction of empirical macroeconomics.Image
3/ The key insight of (reduced-form) VARs: instead of imposing heavy theoretical structure on the data (as structural models do), let the data speak. Estimate all the relationships together, trace shocks through the system with impulse response functions. This is now standard toolkit in every central bank in the world (& usually more accurate than structural models).Image
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Read 13 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Aug 27, 2025
In honor of the upcoming Celebration in Honor of Thomas Sowell happening this October at the Hoover Institution (@HooverInst), here is a chronological list of all 47 of Sowell's books with an accompanying summary for each along with an image of the book's cover. A thread🧵 Image
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1: Say’s Law: An Historical Analysis (1972)
Sowell’s first major work — a scholarly history of Say’s Law (the idea that "supply creates its own demand") and its critics, tracing debates from the classical economists to Keynes.Image
2: Black Education: Myths and Tragedies (1972)
Critiques misguided education policies for Black students, arguing that well-intentioned reforms often hurt achievement.Image
Read 48 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Jul 9, 2025
🚨The big upward trend in Generative AI/LLM tool use in 2025 continues but may be slowing. An update to our paper "The Labor Market Effects of Generative AI" tracking LLM adoption w surveys (finding LLM use at work went from 30.1% [December 2024] to 45.6% [June 2025]). Thread🧵 Image
Google search data from Google Trends suggests that searches for "ChatGPT" both in the US and Worldwide have roughly doubled in 2025. Image
In April 2025, Sam Altman (@sama) said the number of ChatGPT active users has doubled in just weeks and had reached 1 billion users, up from 400mn in February 20025. It could now be well above 1 billion forbes.com/sites/martinep…
Read 4 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Jun 22, 2025
A thread 🧵 list of the most successful undergraduate theses/student papers of all time:
1. Fred Smith (Yale University, 1966). Proposal for an integrated air–ground delivery system. Became FedEx, a global logistics company.
2. Wendy Kopp (Princeton University, 1989) "An Argument and Plan for the Creation of the Teachers Corps". Founded Teach For America, placing thousands in public schools. Image
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3. John F. Kennedy (Harvard University, 1940), "Why England Slept", became bestselling book; helped launch JFK’s career eventually ending at WH; discusses British government's failure and initial hesitance to take steps to respond to Adolf Hitler's threats of war ahead of WW2. Image
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Read 10 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
Jun 10, 2025
"The Elastic Markets Hypothesis" new paper w Felix Gerding. Using country index additions/subtractions, we find multipliers (of flows on stock market prices) are not as high or permanent as recent lit. Stock market demand may be inelastic in short-run but is elastic in long-run🧵 Image
Full "Elastic Markets Hypothesis" Paper is here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
The literature demand curves for stocks really begins with Shleifer's famous "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?" which uses index reconstitution (note for micro elasticities)
jstor.org/stable/2328486… Image
Much of our paper has been written in response to recent literature starting w/ Gabaix and Koijen (2021) ("Inelastic Markets Hypothesis") who argue that multipliers are as high as 5 & are permanently high. To be clear these are macro not micro mutlipliers nber.org/papers/w28967
Read 10 tweets
Jon Hartley Profile picture
May 20, 2025
🚨There has been a massive surge in Generative AI/LLM tool use in 2025. An update to our paper "The Labor Market Effects of Generative AI" tracking LLM adoption using surveys (finding LLM use at work has increased ~30% to ~40% in 2025). Thread🧵along w other evidence of the surge Image
Our U.S. survey evidence has found significant increases in Gemini and ChatGPT use during this period of time. ChatGPT and Gemini remain the most widely used tools. Image
Google search data from Google Trends suggests that searches for "ChatGPT" both in the US and Worldwide have roughly doubled in 2025. Image
Read 10 tweets

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