Nooresh Merani Profile picture
Feb 3, 2020 5 tweets 4 min read Read on X
#DDT impact only on promoters and #hnis in monetary terms is not large but the signaling and sentiment impact is larger. A quick short thread on listed #equities ( will add more actual data instead of ballpark nos ).
1) total market cap of indian stocks = 150-160 lakh crores. Exact no as per bse market 153,04,724 crores. 2) 10% of that #marketcap is #PSU companies. Most of these companies at 5% yield or more 3) The dividend yield of #nifty500 has been in a range of 1-2% again #psus majorly
4) Consider 10% of the total market cap of india doesnt pay much dividends. 5) Left with a market cap of 120 lakh crores and 1% yield. 6) total dividends given a year say 1.2 lakh crores. 7) Out of this 50-60% of holding is with promoters rest 30% with foreign and domestic insti
8) The dividends in hand of institutions is not impacted but rather positively impacted, the major hit is on the 10% holding by individual investors and 50-60% by promoters 9) If #promoter holding is through #pvtltd, #foreignentity , #trust , #holdingcos it is not in 42.7% tax
10) consider half of #promoter is through above structure. Now left with 20-30% of promoter and 10% of individuals. Around 30-40% of the 1.2 lakh crore div kitty impacted no is approx 50000 cr and and extra tax on it. For a shareholder friendly promoter buyback is better again

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More from @nooreshtech

Nov 13
Nifty & RSI Positive Divergence

Nifty – Oversold and Triple Divergence

Like I have said in my earlier posts that RSI is a good indicator for bottoming out analysis on Nifty50.

Now is the time with RSI being oversold it gets into practice for us.

Oversold and a possible Triple Divergence in making.

In majority of the instances a RSI divergence has led to a Strong Bounce.

A cluster of supports closer to 23300-23600.

Recent lows can be broken tomorrow and ideally one would expect a good bounce from the support band.

The trade is to look for longs in the band of 23300-23600 or as close to it or stock specific.

A bottoming out can take a few sessions as per previous instances. A stoploss of 2% from entry closer to 23000.

A bounce to the tune of 30-50% of the downmove is the initial target. That would come to 24500-25000.Image
The past instances

The 2021-2023 – RSI divergence bounces

Nifty from top to bottom corrected 18% but there were multiple bounces and sideways range.

In the same period many stocks/sectors did really well.

For example the June 2022 bounce was led by Banks.Image
The RSI Divergences in 2015-2016

Although the trend was down there were many bounces.

Textiles/Chemicals and many sectors continued to do well.Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 28
Nifty50 RSI at 80. Sell Everything and Run Away

Did you all get this Forward/Post of how #Nifty of how 80 RSI was followed by a Correction !!

A Thread.
Image
Image
A) March 1992.

Nifty50 index started in 1996 with a 1-2 year backdated data. NSE started operations in 1994.

So I have no clue where the 1992 data came from. Sensex monthly RSI was 92 in 1992 in 1985. So that also does not match
B) Dec 2003.

My data shows 78.5. But fits the Curve and Narrative.

The next 4 months are sideways. May 2004 elections led to the 30% correction.

So now we start with the actual 80 + RSI instances.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 23
#SEBI - Profit Loss Analysis of #Individuals in #Derivatives

Total Traders = 1.13 cr

93% of #individuals made losses.

Total Loss = 1.8 lakh crores.

Transaction Cost = 50k cr

Only 1% of Traders managed to earn more than 1 lakh!!

A THREAD
1) #Futures Profit But #Options Losses

FY 24 all Individuals

Individuals made losses in Options to the tune of ~ ₹55,000 crore in FY24, they made profits to the tune of about ~ ₹13,400 crore in Futures.
2) But Everyone wants to trade only #Options

FY24

94.2% traded only Options
5.1% traded both Futures as well as Options.
0.7% of the F&O traders traded only Futures.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 6
The Rotational Bull Market !!

This Bull Market has been Unique in terms of No Single Theme being the Leader for a long period.

Read PDF
rb.gy/mo19dw
If we go back in History.

> 1992 was about Cements and other cos driven by Harshad Mehta.

> 2000 was about IT & Telecom – K10 stocks of Ketan Parekh

> 2008 was about Real Estate, Infra etc.
Bear Markets after that saw 60% drawdowns.

Post this period  we have seen more and more Rotational Bull Markets in Sectors/Themes but no Central Leadership.
Read 17 tweets
Jul 10
#Snippets

A few interesting snippets from different notes.

1) DIIs narrowing the gap with FIIs.

Can we see DIIs>FIIs in coming years ? Image
2) #India narrowing the gap with China in MSCI weightage Image
3) Last 5 years Sensex Growth= Earnings Growth

Valuations Expensive or Justified? Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
Setting the Stage: World Indices Setup for 2024

AEX - NetherlandsImage
ASX All - AustraliaImage
ASX 200 - AustraliaImage
Read 23 tweets

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