#DDT impact only on promoters and #hnis in monetary terms is not large but the signaling and sentiment impact is larger. A quick short thread on listed #equities ( will add more actual data instead of ballpark nos ).
1) total market cap of indian stocks = 150-160 lakh crores. Exact no as per bse market 153,04,724 crores. 2) 10% of that #marketcap is #PSU companies. Most of these companies at 5% yield or more 3) The dividend yield of #nifty500 has been in a range of 1-2% again #psus majorly
4) Consider 10% of the total market cap of india doesnt pay much dividends. 5) Left with a market cap of 120 lakh crores and 1% yield. 6) total dividends given a year say 1.2 lakh crores. 7) Out of this 50-60% of holding is with promoters rest 30% with foreign and domestic insti
8) The dividends in hand of institutions is not impacted but rather positively impacted, the major hit is on the 10% holding by individual investors and 50-60% by promoters 9) If #promoter holding is through #pvtltd, #foreignentity , #trust , #holdingcos it is not in 42.7% tax
10) consider half of #promoter is through above structure. Now left with 20-30% of promoter and 10% of individuals. Around 30-40% of the 1.2 lakh crore div kitty impacted no is approx 50000 cr and and extra tax on it. For a shareholder friendly promoter buyback is better again
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Multi-Year Range Breakouts in Nifty50 Stocks but Nifty50 Making Lower Tops –What to Do ?
Apart from that
1) Global Indices – US and Europe near all time highs but India continues to struggle and making lower tops.
2) Stocks in Same Sector – One at all time high the other one at 30% drawdown.
3) What to trust the Breakout Moves or Breakdown Moves ?
This creates a dilemma for a Trader – To trust the Breakout/Breakdown or Not ?
Now lets c the Charts
The Struggling Nifty50
Positive divergences on new lows.
Still in lower tops.
Last major swing highs at 24200.
Swing lows at 22800.
Every big positive candle does not see any follow up action over next 1-3 sessions. Wait for this to change.
#Retail Inflows continue to be strong but Sebi categorization of Stocks > 33k cr Mkt cap being considered Midcap has led to over-ownership and overvaluation in the Top Midcap & Smallcap ( > 20k cr )
Data from Monarch AIF Note.
1) Price CAGR >> Earnings CAGR
Nifty50 and Nifty500 have moved inline with earnings cagr.
NiftyMidcap 100 has seen max re-rating. A price cagr of 27.3% against 11.7% earnings.
2) Concentrated Flows
Mid + Small + Thematic = 55-60% share of MF pure equity net inflows in CY23 and CY24