Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #equities

Most recents (24)

/1 The $VIX Decline
What is going on?

Liquidity Problem
Just like the buyback charts I have been posting that show there is a liquidity problem...

Overloaded Participants
Participants were overloaded with $VIX contracts……
/2 Selling and Unrecoverable Losses
Those whose $VIX contracts represented unrecoverable losses sold price indiscriminately...
/3 Impact on Liquidity
And that leaves a lot less liquidity for the markets...
Read 6 tweets

1. Recently, we received new PMI data, which feeds into our PMI composite, whose readings continue to show a weak environment for growth assets (stocks, commodities, & high yield credit). As of the latest available data, our PMI composite now shows a reading of -10.93. Image
2. This was a sequential deceleration from one month prior and a decline in the three-month trend. PMIs are generally strong directional indicators of where we are in the profit cycle, as PMI respondents manage inventories and orders in response to their outlook on profitability.
3. PMI indicators are typically biased toward the manufacturing sector. While this does indeed make sense since production is largely driven by the manufacturing sector, it is important to also separate these sub-indexes to understand the pervasiveness of the current trend .
Read 10 tweets
1/ Hey frends! Have you heard the news? @PythNetwork is now officially live on the @injective #mainnet, bringing a whole new level of possibilities for #dApps and the #Injective community!
Let's dive into what this integration means and how it impacts the world of #DeFi🌐
#INJ Image
Pyth is an #oracle network that revolutionizes the way real-world data is brought #onchain
Through its innovative low-latency pull oracle design, Pyth publishes continuous real-world #data, inc. prices, for various markets spanning equities, #commodities, forex pairs & #crypto
With this integration, #Injective #dApps now have seamless access to #Pyth's #onchain #data, empowering #developers and users alike to leverage real-world #asset information within the #blockchain environment. This is a game-changer for Injective's #ecosystem! 🆙
Read 13 tweets
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
#FederalReserve Image
The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
2/n Image
The #ISM #PMI showed an uptick but is still below 50 which implies that revenue growth is NOT about to accelerate again. Again, slower #inflation & flatline volume = an end to the boom, but not yet a bust.
3/n Image
Read 15 tweets
In today’s #MoneyShow #MarketMinute:

#Equities are adding to Friday’s gains in the early going today, while Treasuries, #gold, and silver are selling off. The dollar is flattish while #oil is slightly higher.

On the news front...
The banking sector is catching a reprieve here, and that’s leading to “Risk On” trading across all asset classes. First Citizens Bancshares / $FCNCB is buying $119 billion of #deposits and $72 billion of #loans from failed Silicon Valley Bank.
Meanwhile, the Chairman of Saudi National Bank Ammar Al Khudairy resigned for “personal reasons.” He helped trigger the plunge in shares of Credit Suisse Group AG $CS several days ago.
Read 5 tweets
A simple hack helps you save tax on #stocks and #mutualfunds.

Here’s what you do:

- Sell your investments
- Book profits & losses
- Repurchase immediately

This is called Tax Harvesting

A 🧵on how it’s done.
Let’s first talk about the #tax on #equities.

The profit you book is divided into two buckets.

1. Shot term: If you sell within one year (of purchase)
2. Long-term: If you sell after one year

You pay a higher tax for short-term profits and lower for long-term (Check table)
Now, let’s jump to the sweet part - how to reduce taxes?

You pay LTCG tax only when your gains exceed Rs 1 lakh.

So the trick is not to let your gains go beyond this tax-free limit.

How to do it? Sell a part of your gains to book LTCG and reinvest it.

An example will help.👇
Read 14 tweets
The big, big risk is that (almost) every investor expects #equities AND #bonds to decline further due to ongoing tight monetary policy and a weakening global economy.

This significantly increases the odds that 2023 will play out differently.
This does not automatically mean you must be contrarian (even though I like bonds better than most.) So far, this bear market is without capitulation and significant outflows, but with ‘all’ investors in the same boat, little is needed for markets to move in the other direction.
The beauty, of course, is that 2023 predictions are entirely arbitrary and that every sound investment framework should allow you to adjust based on new information. Sticking to your convictions without incorporating (enough) new information is an inferior investment strategy.
Read 3 tweets
👉🧐Contrarian indicator = hedge fund equity market exposure which is now exceptionally low ... as during 2008 Lehman, 2012 EuroZone Sovereign Debt Crisis, 2020 Covid crash & now with higher rates, recession likelihood ... Thoughts? Food for thought ?
$SPY #SPX #Stocks #Equities Image
Complementary another contrarian metric & view:
👉CEO Business Confidence Expectations for the Economy & S&P 500
Thoughts ?
$SPY #SPX #Stocks #Equities Image
Another contrarian sentiment metric, Europe edition
👉economic expectations/sentiment is about 2007-2009 Lehman implosion levels and worse than 2012 EuroZone Sovereign Debt Crisis ... Image
Read 4 tweets
THREAD: A picture is worth a thousand words. Let's look at a few of the globe's largest #ETF's & their graphs & see if we can make some sense of the current market environment.

What a year it's been for #Oil & #Energy! Only positive YTD #MSCI #Sector.


#Global #CleanEnergy #ETF relative to Global #Energy shows an interesting picture.


#EmergingMarkets #ETF seriously lagging #DevelopedMarkets ETF, mostly due to disinvestment from #China.

#SouthAfrica might be down over 1YR, but $EZA performance in USD (-15.9%) is still way ahead of both $URTH (DM -22.2%) & $EEM (EM -28.9%) over the same period.
Read 19 tweets
FT opinion article: “The energy crisis gives the US a chance to woo big European companies”. If cheap natural gas can’t come to Europe, Europe will have to go the cheap natural gas. Thread #markets #equities #bonds #energy #ESG…
1/According to the author European heavy industry has endured a grim few months. Although the fuel crisis appears to be easing and companies invest in green energy/efficiency some are also rethinking their geographic footprint.
2/The US now has an opportunity to woo European multinationals, with energy costs clearly playing a role in new investments. US has an advantage over Europe because natural gas supplies are local, reliable and consistently cheaper.
Read 7 tweets
On the #FederalReserve hawkish pivot 1/n

It's about the destination now
Forget the speed of rate hikes
Focus on the terminal rate and
how long the Fed must stay there

= how much cumulative pain is needed to crush #inflation
Powell: 'If we were to overtighten, we could use our tools to support the economy later on.'

Or in other words, we are willing to risk a #recession to get the 'job done' and push #inflation to target.
Interesting end to the presser with one journalist stating #equities were up after #FOMC - which was not true -

Powell repeated virtually all hawkish sentences he had made during the press conference. He cares about (tighter) financial conditions, not about equities.
Read 5 tweets
🧵 Is the American Dream dead? - a tweetstorm

This is a brain dump of .@RaoulGMI's 30+ years of knowledge, how the world works, and how his macro framework fits into it all ⤵️
1/ There's no denying that we're in a mess!

By the Law of Unintended Consequences, every time we try to fix A, we create problems B, C, D, E, etc.

We hardly understand these new problems unless there's hindsight to connect the dots...

So, how the hell did we get here?

Let's start by looking at the peak of the #British Empire:

It was the world's largest realm. But as with every empire, trying to control so many people across the globe has its price & #debt weakened its structure...
Read 81 tweets
$KR 🧵on a name not popular and not covered cause boring ... but makes money: +96% since January 2020, +5% in 2022 a year when not much worked ...
$SPY #SPX $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$KR Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY #SPX $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$KR The Kroger capital allocation: Image
Read 4 tweets
$PLTR Q3 earnings preview🧵7th Nov:
Valuation since DPO: Price, Actual & Estimated Sales with Free Cash Flow switching positive:
👉when PLTR was making 1bn Sales & Sales estimates were 1.3bn, price = 44
👉when PLTR is making 1.74bn in Sales & Sales est are 2.09bn, price = 8.61🧐 Image
$PLTR Earnings History & Surprises:
👉actual EPS vs EPS surprise
👉1 day price % reaction ... if you feel like trading the stock and/or options during the Q3 earnings have this in mind ... Image
$PLTR Financials Actuals & Consensus:
Wall Street consensus expects:
👉$475m Q3 Revenues while for Q4 $507m with revenue growth just 21% and 17%
👉 1.9bn for 2022, 2.3bn for 2023 and 3bn for 2024 with revenue growth just 23%, 24% and 25% =🧐materially below management guidance? ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Big Tech charts thread🧵🧵🧵visualizing fundamentals, less words, visuals say 1,000 words:
$META Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$META Facebook capital allocation:
👉CAPEX fully deployed again: $27.6bn & 23.4% out of Revenues
👉Stock Buyback Yield at a crazy 15.2%
Food for thought ... thoughts ?
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$GOOG Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
Read 24 tweets
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for this morning's chat on #SquawkBox.

I did TRY to find something positive to say - honest, folks!

Following are the notes I sent the team before the show:-
Ok. So here goes...

Something I've mentioned on here: the enormous scale of Europe's energy problem runs into the €trillions. The #AmpelDesGrauens "Doppel-Wums" -'bazooka' - relief package is €200bln & doubts are *already* being voiced whether will suffice.
Read 14 tweets
1/6 Busy day today in the markets,

Since I'm the type of trader who guides himself by the Price Action mainly, I prefer the phrase "show me the charts and I'll tell you the news" by Bernand Baruch.

Some thoughts below about #EURUSD #DXY .

CC: @JLinWins @deerpointmacro
2/6 Pre-Powell speech we had some headlines from #ECB officials signaling a potential 75bps rate hike due to #inflation and problems in the #EURO zone.
This caused $EURUSD to tap the supply area and perform a beautiful liquidity grab before resuming the current trend. Image
3/6 After losing the 1.00 / parity area, $EURUSD buyers must defend the $0.995 level. If we see that level taken out on a daily closing basis the target for this "bearish flag" pattern is $0.96 area, a -3.46% give or take.
Read 7 tweets
Valuation thread 1/7

The S&P 500 Index is up 18% from the low in mid June.
Valuation thread 2/7

#Earnings-per-share are up less than 2% since then and guidance has become significantly more cautious.
Valuation thread 3/7

As a result, the realized PE ratio of the S&P 500 Index has increased to a lofty 21. The forward PE has risen to 19.
Read 8 tweets
Numbers don’t lie, but they can be deceiving.

A good salesperson can sell you a poor product by using numbers🔢to his advantage.

And you really won’t notice unless you ask the right questions.

A 🧵 on how you can be fooled with data when buying #insurance policies.👇
▪️ Number Game In #Annuity or #Pension Plans

The sales pitch goes like this:

If you invest Rs 10 lakh now, you will start getting around Rs 1 lakh a year after a decade--a 10% assured return on your #investment.

But there’s a catch.👇
It’s not 10% #returns. Here’s why.👇

For the first 10 years, there will be no payout. During this time, your #money will earn interest and grow.📈

Even if you invest in FD and earn a 5.5% #InterestRate , your money will grow to Rs 17 lakh in a decade.
Read 11 tweets

In this little story I summarize how Covid, Supply Chain, Debt, Wages, Inflation, a Eecession, Insolvency and an aging population come together to form a common solution: Crypto Assets

1) ...
So much is happening in the world. War, High #inflation, Covid, #recession, insolvancy, a debt bubble and Supply Chain problems.

All of these causes have a large impact on the world economy and therefore on your portfolio, which makes it important to understand what is going on. Image
The main consequence:

An nation on the verge of collapse and a debt bubble around the world.

As Ray Dalio said

'A nation in its last effort of strength is hugely in debt, there are internal wealth disparities and printing money seems to many to be the solution, but it is not'. Image
Read 25 tweets
FT opinion article: “How shadow banks threaten the global economy”. The Fed seems to think the financial world is separate from the economy. See how that works out. Thread #markets #equities #bonds…
1/The author points out that the next crisis will arise from shadow banking “institutions”. Especially those that lend to corporates. They have a lot of debt, especially in the US, and the cost is set to rise.
2/Private markets are taking over from public ones, with investors seeking yield. “Swing a stick in Manhattan and you’re bound to hit someone involved in private lending”. Debt is now much higher.
Read 5 tweets
FT opinion article: “The dollar’s rapid rise increases risks for global economy - Dangers are particularly acute for developing countries already facing number of crises”. Our currency, but your problem #dollar #Fed #markets #bonds #equities…
1/According to the author the recent rise in the dollar has attracted less attention than it should. In theory it should help exports by weaker countries and ease US inflation.
2/This year the dollar is strongly up due to expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary policy, economic outperformance and safe haven status.
Read 8 tweets
FT opinion article: “Let the Fed put money where it is really needed”. She means CBDC. The problem is that the Fed now needs to take money away, not add to it. This is not going to end well. Thread #Fed #monetary policy #markets #bonds #equities…
1/The author argues that the Fed has overreached its mission. It has fuelled a shadow banking system and an asset bubble and will now have to create a recession in order to control inflation.
2/And politicians have been happy to outsource the decisions because they can then claim they are not to blame. The Fed is being asked to do stuff it is not qualified to do (same as the Supreme Court).
Read 6 tweets
#Inflation will always be one of the prime reason of making #investments in #Equities. Rest depends up on #investors behavior, asset allocation & the #goals. Focus on 'Real Return' not marketing gimmicks. #SaarthiZarooriHai
& #PlanZarooriHai with #MasterMindFinnAsset (1/n)
#Investment decisions contribute in a big way to inflation-proofing your #mutualfund portfolio. Frequent churning, performance chasing & exiting at the first sign of volatility lead to sub-optimal gains. (2/n) #MutualFundsSahiHai #investing #investors #StockMarketIndia
Avoid making impulsive #investing decisions based on predicted short-term changes in the #economy. Make sure any strategies you use to hedge against #inflation align with your overall #FinancialFreedom plan & assists to meet your #financial #goals. (3/n) #goalsetting #investing
Read 6 tweets

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