There is potential for a mere difference in coronavirus detection ability to cause something as large as an immediate geopolitical shift from US dominance to China.
China has had a head start and has detection/quarantine protocol in place. Given the speed of infection, if the US fails to immediately decentralize and spread our ability to detect, the virus could spread faster here and end up crippling the US economy just enough that (cont.)
...that once the virus runs its course, China ends up ahead.
We know the US is brittle right now and its leadership and culture in disarray, its medical system disorganized and lacking. This MIGHT be an unexpected tipping point.
We know the US is brittle right now and its leadership and culture in disarray, its medical system disorganized and lacking. This MIGHT be an unexpected tipping point.
To be clear: the US would survive entirely intact. But if the virus spreads too much here, it would hamstring the economy just long enough that China could end seizing the lead because it recovers faster.
The death rate would be low; minimal human toll. Few people die.
But imagine if the US fails to stem the infection quickly enough, and major population (i.e. economically contributing) centers end up having to be quarantined for an entire year while China recovers in 6 months.
But imagine if the US fails to stem the infection quickly enough, and major population (i.e. economically contributing) centers end up having to be quarantined for an entire year while China recovers in 6 months.
6 months while Chinese companies (operating at Chinese-capitalism speed) take over contracts and supply chains across the world, while almost no one from the US can travel abroad or leave their homes.
Then once the US realizes it’s fallen behind, instead of engaging in “get up and dust itself off and get back to work,” the country’s polarized electorate resorts to infighting and xenophobia, further delaying its own recovery (c.f. post-9/11 rebuilding of WTC).
Once again: few people die, no one invades anyone.
But a once-mighty empire falls into decline because it lacks the resilience and vigor needed to address nominal collective threats - one blow reveals it to be the brittle, hollowed out shell it has become.
But a once-mighty empire falls into decline because it lacks the resilience and vigor needed to address nominal collective threats - one blow reveals it to be the brittle, hollowed out shell it has become.
The way this will happen is in a thousand tiny steps, as many individual actors make rational decisions to do business with China while America is too hamstrung to compete.
