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Critical Inker Profile picture
@alexdschiller
Feb 12, 2020 • 12 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Ok. I've been trying to keep quiet but all the instant experts are getting a little carried away. So here's some pro tips. Well not pro, but 'unreasonably addicted to politics' amateur tips...

1/
1. Iowa is like 103% white. Biden's strengths are not white midwesterners. He never had a chance at top two in Iowa.

2/
2. Iowa is a caucus state. All Buttigieg's surge there really means is that he has awareness (he's from the midwest) and he was a comfortable consolation prize for people whose original choice didn't hit the 15% threshold.

3/
3. Biden and Sanders are still leading all *national* polls. They are still the frontrunners. ~100k people from Iowa don't change that.

4/
4. Bernie will win NH. It will look like a landslide. Buttigieg will outperform his pre-Iowa expectations. He will underperform his post-Iowa bloated expectations.

5/
5. The news reports Pete's surge in IA as if it brings him into the lead group. It doesn't. But their reporting convinces people it does, so he bumps in the polls. That bump influences primary voters, validating the polls. It's a self-fulfilling media-driven prophecy.

6/
..It will work in every primary that does not include minorities.

6. Biden will underperform, again, in NH. NH is like 104% white. Warren will underperform expectations, but will still be in the top 4. Klobuchar will overperform expectations because "viable underdog" status.

7/
7. Yang is out. So is everyone not yet mentioned, whether they admit it or not. Except maybe Bloomberg, but he's not on the ballots yet.

8/
8. Nevada is a crapshoot. Anyone's guess. Biden probably gains ground. Buttigieg begins to fade. Sanders/Warren/Klobuchar plateau.

9/
9. Biden crushes SC, assuming he can keep his foot out of his mouth for another few weeks. News will report on his "resurgence," even though he never really went anywhere and the news created the appearance of him fading in the first place.

10/
10. Super Tuesday will be the first actual test representative of the electorate. Anything that happens before then is just fodder for the news - and an opportunity for controlling interests to craft narrative.

11/
Enjoy the next few weeks, and try real hard not to write anyone off yet based on half-truths, memes, recency bias and media spin.

It's a clusterf*ck out there. By design.

END/

#Primary2020 #2020Elections #Buttigieg #Sanders #Klobuchar #Warren #Biden

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More from @alexdschiller

Critical Inker Profile picture
May 4, 2020
When you use a loaded weapon to intimidate, you are the threat.

Liberty comes with responsibility.
Those who fail to recognize that, who abuse their freedom to frighten and demand to be recognized through force and fear rather than reason and persuasion...

1/
...are more responsible for advancing the suppression of liberty than any activist or politician.

A responsible gun owner who uses a weapon to protect others and save lives is to be celebrated for their bravery and instinct.

2/
Lives saved by those who recognize the gravity and responsibility attached to their freedom are the single greatest argument in defense of gun rights.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Critical Inker Profile picture
May 2, 2020
There has now been a recession in the first term of every single Republican president for the past 111 years.

In the past 73 years, there have been 11 "official" recessions, including 49 recessionary quarters.

41 of those quarters occurred under Republican presidents.

1/
This year, the cumulative budget deficit since Trump took office is expected to surpass $5 trillion. Greater than any 4 year period in U.S. history.

2/
Almost half of the benefits of Trump's tax cuts and programs have gone to the wealthiest 5%, while the number of corporations paying $0 in taxes has doubled.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Critical Inker Profile picture
Apr 26, 2020
"Trump will never willingly leave office."

It's a refrain I hear often & attempt to debunk regularly.

CNN's Kaitlyn Collins was assigned to the front row in yesterday's W. H. Press Briefing. She regularly embarrasses Trump. Usually by just asking him about things he's said.

1/
Trump did not want CNN in the front row. He tried to have Mrs. Collins moved to the back. She asks tough questions & likely had a few lined up about injecting bleach.

Due to the rules inside the WH Press Room, the WH doesn't control what press is present or where they sit.

2/
Both Collins and the reporter who was told by the WH to switch seats refused to do so.

At this point, based on multiple reports, the Secret Service was invoked to attempt to get Mrs. Collins to move to the back.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Critical Inker Profile picture
Apr 23, 2020
The only thing more amazing than how often Larry Kudlow's predictions are dead wrong is that he keeps making them.

March 1993: Clinton's taxes will ruin the economy. (90's economic boom)

1/
February 2000: Things will pick up again. Not even Greenspan can stop this internet economy. (Internet bubble burst)
June 2002: War will elevate the stock market by 2000 points. (Down 1000 over next year)
December 2007: There's no recession coming. (There was)

2/
April 2008: Recessions are therapeutic. There's no credit crunch. It's very good. (It wasn't)
July 2008: The housing market is healthier than ever. (Nope. Collapsed within weeks)

3/
Read 7 tweets
Critical Inker Profile picture
Apr 22, 2020
368 male Covid-19 patients were included in a nationwide study by the VA.

97 received Hydroxychloroquine.

113 received Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin.

158 received neither.

How many died?

Neither drug: 11.4%
Both drugs: 22%
Hydroxychloroquine only: 27%

1/
So the mortality rate among those taking the drugs that Trump has repeatedly recommended, and that Fox News and GOP pundits and Twitter idols have touted endlessly, is about double the mortality rate without them.

2/
At Trump's direction, U.S. government agencies have now purchased at least 30 million doses of a drug that doubles your chance of death. Using your tax dollars.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Critical Inker Profile picture
Apr 22, 2020
I'm seeing a lot of casual jokes about people dying. You've seen them. The morbid one-liners, the R vs. D prediction commentaries and link shares, the strangers' obituaries as a political bullet point.

1/
It's so easy to share these. I don't doubt I've posted some frustrated comment or stupid joke that meets this exact criteria.

Usually, it's unnamed people in general, on the opposite side of the political spectrum, dying in these snapshots.

2/
Sometimes it's a real person we've never heard of, with a family, friends, and neighbors, and a sudden afterlife legacy of being the 'proof of concept' the "other side" passes around like a trophy.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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