Bernie won both NH and NV. But the delegate situations were so different.
NH: Bernie 9, Pete 9, Amy 6
NV (estimate based on current incomplete count): Bernie 23, Biden 7, Pete 6
If votes on Super Tuesday look more like NH, it's a muddle. If like NV, Bernie wins
NH: Bernie 9, Pete 9, Amy 6
NV (estimate based on current incomplete count): Bernie 23, Biden 7, Pete 6
If votes on Super Tuesday look more like NH, it's a muddle. If like NV, Bernie wins
Just for fun I also estimated NV's delegates if they were based on the first preference vote (that's how things will work on Super Tuesday, after all).
Currently it ends up nearly the same. Bernie 21, Biden 9, Pete 6.
Currently it ends up nearly the same. Bernie 21, Biden 9, Pete 6.
To understand why — it's too simple to say winning 33% of the vote means 33% of the delegates.
How much you get in each batch is actually calculated by your % of the *viable candidates' vote.*
Bernie has 33% of the statewide vote. But he has *50%* of the Bernie+Biden+Pete vote.
How much you get in each batch is actually calculated by your % of the *viable candidates' vote.*
Bernie has 33% of the statewide vote. But he has *50%* of the Bernie+Biden+Pete vote.
In contrast, in NH, Bernie had 25% of the statewide vote, but 36% of the Bernie+Pete+Amy vote.
Pete was much closer to them there so they ended up tying in delegates with Amy not too far behind.
Vote share and margins of victory matter — a lot.
Pete was much closer to them there so they ended up tying in delegates with Amy not too far behind.
Vote share and margins of victory matter — a lot.
After that vote shares and viability in every congressional district come into play. And rounding to get to whole delegate numbers. So Bernie ends up comfortably above 50% in NV's delegates.
