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Good thread and also a relevant comparison re: 2004 may be Dean/Bernie.

Dean surged into first place in a divided field, seemed to be set to steamroller to the nomination... until Dem voters very quickly flocked to Kerry instead

It was Iowa that effectively elevated Kerry and sent him surging nationally (and sunk Dean) in '04. This time around SC played a similar role for Biden.
Dean did pioneer the online fundraising model and was the fundraising leader in the field. But yes, many differences too. (For one, Kerry's Super Tuesday win was far more overwhelming than Biden's, Bernie has not been completely wiped out like Dean)

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Andrew Prokop
@awprokop
If Biden wins 55% of pledged delegates going forward, he wouldn't clinch a majority till June.

If Biden wins 60% of pledged delegates going forward, he'd clinch around late May.

If he wins 65%, he'd clinch around early May.

Even if he wins most states, this could take a while
People are responding by pointing to Florida.

That doesn't accelerate things as much as you might think. Let's say Biden wins 85% of FL's delegates and 65% of all other delegates. Still takes till late April to hit the magic number.
This is what I wrote about the delegate math on March 15, 2016. Clear then that Clinton's lead was near-insurmountable vox.com/2016/3/15/1124…

But Democrats structure their nomination contest with proportional rules that make it very hard for someone to actually clinch till late
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Andrew Prokop
@awprokop
Biden's landslides in AL, VA, and NC look to be really important for his delegate lead. He'll net around 90 delegates from just those three states: brutal for Bernie.
(By "net" I mean how many delegates more than Bernie that Biden got there. It's a useful way to track how a candidate actually builds a delegate advantage over their nearest challenger.)
For comparison — it's far too early to get an accurate picture of what the CA delegate count will end up being, but by the *current* vote count Bernie would net around 60 over Biden there. (That vote count will change.)
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Andrew Prokop
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Just for fun... current Biden+Bloomberg totals in Super Tuesday states:
AL: 75%
VA: 63%
AR: 57%
NC: 57%
TN: 57%
OK: 53%

TX: 49%
MN: 47%
ME: 46%
MA: 45%
CO: 44%
CA: 39%
UT: 34%
VT: 31%
And… current Sanders+Warren totals in Super Tuesday states:
VT: 63%
CO: 53%
UT: 50%
MA: 49%
ME: 49%
CA: 46%
MN: 45%

TX: 41%
OK: 39%
TN: 35%
NC: 35%
VA: 34%
AR: 32%
AL: 23%
Life is more complicated than this, voters won't all go one way, etc.
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