Seems to me there are four broad possible (non-candidate specific) outcomes from Super Tuesday in a split field.
SCENARIO 1: One candidate emerges with a big delegate lead and is on track for or close to on track for a majority.
That candidate would be the near-certain nominee.
SCENARIO 1: One candidate emerges with a big delegate lead and is on track for or close to on track for a majority.
That candidate would be the near-certain nominee.
SCENARIO 2: One candidate emerges with a large delegate plurality in a split field, but is not on track for a majority.
That would make that person the favorite to get the nomination — eventually. But their rivals could keep campaigning to try to block them from a majority.
That would make that person the favorite to get the nomination — eventually. But their rivals could keep campaigning to try to block them from a majority.
SCENARIO 3: Two candidates get the vast majority of the Super Tuesday delegates.
This would effectively set up a head-to-head contest going forward. Also means a contested convention is unlikely since delegates are being split two ways. Like 2008 and 2016
This would effectively set up a head-to-head contest going forward. Also means a contested convention is unlikely since delegates are being split two ways. Like 2008 and 2016
SCENARIO 4: Three or more candidates split the Super Tuesday delegates, with no one close to being on track for a majority.
This is the scenario that's most likely to lead to a contested convention. Especially if the three-way split continues two more weeks in March.
This is the scenario that's most likely to lead to a contested convention. Especially if the three-way split continues two more weeks in March.
