Thread by @PJverhagen

My #SuperTuesday super thread!
With 1357 delegates up there is a lot to unpack here.
Im gonna start with some broader trends and then break down the states into regions.
This will be a long one!

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
General trends
1.general election type of fight
2.Demographics

TBC 1/28

3.Narrowing field
4.15% voter threshold
5.Turnout
Regions:
1.California (415)
2.Texas (228)
3.Virginia & North Carolina (209)
4.New England: MS, VT, ME (131)
5.South: AL, OK, TN, AR (184)
6.West: Utah + Colorado (96)
7.Minnesota (75)

2/28

8.Weird stuff: Democrats abroad + Samoa (19)

General trends

1.A general election type of fight
Tuesday there will be 16 ‘states’ voting. Why the ‘ ‘ you ask? Because there are 14 proper states, and then democrats abroad and American Samoa. Both of which count as 3/28

delegate contributing states for the DNC.
The fact that there are multiple states voting means its an entirely different ballgame then before. This is because candidates can only be in one place at a time, and that means they need to make concrete decisions on where to 4/28

campaign. Do you go for the southern states, do you go out west to the grand prize of California? Where do you buy ads? Super Tuesday is probably as close to a general election as you can get in terms of organization!

2. Demographics
The states up for Tuesday are a pretty 5/28

good representation of the US as a whole. There are some very progressive states, some conservative southern states, some up in New England. That means that the electorate is much more diverse than has been the case in the previous races. It also means that for many voters 6/28

personal outreach is not possible. There are simply too many places to be, so a lot of the interactions will be through (social) media. Possibly the most interesting case in terms of demographics is Texas, which well get into later.

3. Narrowing field
With #mayorpete 7/28

taking a well deserved bow and stepping out, the field has narrowed. Not only are there less candidates, but South Carolina really put Biden as the single mainstream alternative to Sanders. Since a lot of the polling was done pre-SC I would suspect there is a somewhat large 8/28

surge towards Bidens camp. Certainly a lot of Buttigieg’s supporters would find a most natural fit with Biden. Given the laser focus on electability it could be that some of Klobuchar’s supporters also decide to go all in on Biden to prevent Sanders from winning. 9/28

And then there is Bloomberg. This is the big unknown variable in the race. He’s polling decently well in many places, but its unclear how deep that support is. Bloomberg had two disastrous debate performances and his fate is inextricably linked to Bidens. 10/28

If Biden does well, Bloomberg does bad and vice versa. Given that Biden not only did well but knocked it out of the park there could be a collapse of Bloombergs support this Tuesday.

4. 15% voter threshold
This has been so underexamined in the media. If you don’t get more 11/28

than 15% of the votes in a given state-district, 👏you👏do👏not👏get👏delegates👏. Zero. Zip. Nada.

Since there are a whole bunch of candidates polling below or around 15% in many states this can have a big big impact on the delegate math.

In effect it means that 12/28

they are simply acting as spoilers. Take Bloomberg for example. Lets say he comes in at 13% in California, Biden at 20% and Sanders at 35%. That means that only Biden and Sanders get delegates, and Sanders get more delegates because Bloombergs support effectively wasted 13/28

their votes (in delegate terms).

5. 4.Turnout
Bernie Sanders’ pitch is that he will be getting record turnout and that’s how he wins the election. Super Tuesday turnout will be a very good indication of the excitement democrats are feeling for this election and a good 14/28

test for if Sanders’ promised surge of new voters is materializing!

Okay over to regions now, let’s look at who is up and who is down and evaluate how ‘friendly’ the terrain is for each candidate.

1.California
The Golden State is the Golden prize. A whopping 415 15/28

delegates are up for grabs. Cali is very, very progressive, and its basically Sanders to lose. He has over 30% support in most polls, with Biden trailing in the low 20s. BUT. Buttigieg was also running at 7%, and if his support flocks to Biden it could be close. 16/28

Conventional wisdom is that Sanders will win, but how big will he win?

2. Texas
Texas is super interesting. It’s a state that’s growing increasingly diverse and has good long term trends for democrats. Its also a state that has is going to be very very close. 17/28

@FiveThirtyEight has it as a 52-48% Biden-Sanders chance. Since SC the field has been very unsettled, and again Bloomberg is pretty close behind, if his support ditches him for Biden this could be a Biden landslide. Whoever wins Texas also gets major electability claims. 18/28

3.Virginia & North Carolina
These are pretty Biden friendly states, NC borders SC (duh) and there are some very big endorsements that could have an impact here. Representative Clyburns’ endorsement of Biden had a huge impact in South Carolina and he is campaigning for 19/28

Biden in NC as well. In Virginia senator Tim Kaine has endorsed Biden, Virginia also borders DC and a lot of beltway types live there. These folks are not typically pro trump, and probably also not pro Sanders. Lots of delegates here too!

4. New England
This is Bernie 20/28

territory, with the possible exception of Massachusetts. Bernie is the heavy favorite in Maine and is going to absolutely crush it in his home state of Vermont. Massachusetts will be interesting however, because that’s Warren’s home state. A likely loss there would be very 21/28

bad for her campaign, but Massachusetts also has the potential to be a bit of an upset, the polls have moved a lot there and it could be a come from behind victory for Warren (her first)

5.South
Strong Biden territory, lots of moderates and conservatives that are not 22/28

very favorable to Bernie. The big question here is if Bloomberg manages to hold on to some voters, if all of the centrists support goes to Biden instead it will be an absolute blowout down south. Bear in mind that these states Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Arkansas 23/28

typically don’t vote democratic in the general, BUT that there are some vulnerable democrats (Doug Jones) running for senate there in 2020 as well. #DownBallotMatters

6.West
Utah and Colorado are very likely going to Bernie, its not a lot of delegates but you can expect 24/28

a very large margins there for Sanders. Utah has a lot of very young voters, has some of the lowest median age in the country. Age is a strong predictor for Bernie Sanders, essentially the younger you are the more likely you are to be pro Bernie. Colorado has some very 25/28

progressive areas around Bolder that are very favorable terrain for Sanders
7.Minnesota
Probably going Klobuchar? Its het home state and she has quite good favorability there, could be that the Biden surge ends up hurting her there. If she doesn’t win this one she will 26/28

drop out, also bear in mind that there was a solid Buttigieg share there as well that is now free to realign.

8.Weird ones: Democrats Abroad and Samoa
I don’t really have anything sensible to say about Samoa, but I can tell you from attending Democrat Abroad events that 27/28

odds are Bernie will win it.

That’s it! That’s my Super Tuesday analysis. I am sure that there will be things I have missed so stay tuned for more tweets later on!

UPDATED: klobuchar drops out.

The analysis largely holds, it strengthens the buttigieg effect so expect a surge for Biden to be slightly higher than expected. This is because Amy and Pete's voters find their most likely 'home' with Biden.

Remember that together 1/4

Buttigieg and Klobuchar captured like 15ish % in various states. So this generally is bad news for Sanders as it lowers the number of competitors for the moderate lane.

The most obvious thing that changes is Minnesota. Amy was competitive in that state and now its unclear 2/4

My guess would be that it helps Biden become more competitive with Sanders.

The other development is the endorsement for Beto O'Rourke for Biden. This could help close the gap in Texas a bit, which right now is very very close.

My final guess is that Biden will take more 3/4

Delegates than Sanders away from super Tuesday. This doesn't necessarily mean that Biden is the likely nominee, rather it increases the odds of a contested convention!