Obviously the trends here are good for Biden. And yet, these polls show him winning every Southern state (usually by much less than Clinton did) and losing every non-Southern state. Results like this tonight would mean a long, closely fought contest
For instance, take TX. Clinton won it by 32 points in 2016. Netted 72 delegates there. That represented about 1/5 of her final pledged delegate edge over Sanders.
Unless there is a *very* dramatic late swing, Biden can't count on getting anything like that.
Unless there is a *very* dramatic late swing, Biden can't count on getting anything like that.
For fun, I tweaked the 2016 delegate numbers so that:
-Clinton's delegate advantage in the South is cut in half
-Bernie's delegate advantage in caucuses is cut in half
-Bernie, not Clinton, wins CA by 7 points
HRC still wins, but narrowly. She gets a bit over 51% of pledged dels
-Clinton's delegate advantage in the South is cut in half
-Bernie's delegate advantage in caucuses is cut in half
-Bernie, not Clinton, wins CA by 7 points
HRC still wins, but narrowly. She gets a bit over 51% of pledged dels
