Our 9:30 delegate update -- Biden still leads by over 100 #SuperTuesday
Refreshed delegate board, including initial estimates out of Colorado and updated estimates elsewhere #SuperTuesday
Our Decision Desk's latest delegate estimates have Biden over 300 and Sanders over 200 now... #SuperTuesday
With polls now closed in California, here's our updated delegate board -- Sanders may narrow gap with Biden when California reports... which may take a long time!
Among nearly 14 million votes tabulated so far, including in first four contests, here two leading candidates' shares:
Biden 35%
Bernie 29%
Here are how many delegates they're picking up for every million votes won (plus Bloomberg and Warren, who have also hit million vote mark)
National delegate update: total of 1,310 allocated so far...
Here are latest @CBSNews national delegate estimates -- nearly 1,200 delegates allocated so far with about 150 still left from Super Tuesday contests
Including upcoming contests, still over 2,600 delegates at stake: Biden needs 51% and Sanders needs 54% of them to win a majority
Updated delegate estimates reflecting our initial estimates from #MississippiPrimary -- which we project Biden winning -- and #MissouriPrimary...
Updated delegate estimates now reflect initial estimates from #MichiganPrimary -- which we project Biden to win
Our initial estimates in Mississippi, Missouri, and Michigan indicate Biden consolidating his delegate lead over Sanders
To win a majority outright, Biden now needs just half of the approx. 2,500 pledged delegates left to allocate nationwide
Delegates are more important than number of states won, but still quite a map... a sea of Biden in Midwest and South
Orange = Biden
Purple = Sanders
Here's your 10 pm delegates update...
We've allocated about half of delegates at stake tonight, and Biden's margin has increased to 150 delegates so far
Your midnight delegates update: Biden's estimate now at 800 delegates with a lead of 154 delegates over Sanders
About third of delegates at stake tonight left to allocate...
According to my calculations, Biden now needs just under half (49.8%) of remaining delegates nationally for majority
Your 1 am delegates update...
Updated national delegate estimates...
Biden 835
Sanders 683
Biden has slim majority of what we've estimated so far, with about 200 delegates left to allocate in contests held so far...
New national delegate estimates (with more votes in CA):
Biden 846
Sanders 690
Have about 2,300 delegates left to allocate, including from upcoming contests... Biden needs just under half (49.7%) for a delegate majority, while Sanders now needs 57%
Current national delegate estimates for Biden and Sanders: Biden leads by 154 delegates (with nearly 1,700 allocated)...
Another 441 delegates are at stake in three contests still happening today: Florida (219), Illinois (155), Arizona (67)
Updated delegate estimates reflecting initial allocation out of Florida, where Biden is on track to substantially build on his national delegate lead...
Biden now over 1,000 delegates in our national estimates...
(These reflect updated estimates out of Florida and initial estimates out of Illinois, which is leaning Biden with 5% of expected votes counted)
Of the almost 2,100 delegates remaining nationwide, Biden now needs 47% for a majority, and Sanders now needs 60%
Updated national delegate estimates, which now include initial estimates out of Arizona -- which we project Biden winning -- and updated numbers in Florida and Illinois...
We've allocated about two thirds of delegates at stake today -- less than 2,000 left to allocate nationwide
This is where we're leaving our delegate estimates tonight -- we have now allocated over half of delegates nationwide
Comfortably winning three states that finished voting today (AZ, FL, and IL), Biden now leads Sanders by 291 delegates...
Biden is now fewer than 900 delegates away from a majority
He needs 46% of delegates left to be allocated nationwide, while Sanders now needs 61% of them
Updated delegate estimates from (virtual) decision desk...
While Biden is fewer than 900 delegates away from clinching, these postponements make it less likely he'll be able to do so before June...
And it becomes impossible if New York (274 delegates) and Pennsylvania (186 delegates) move their primaries to June
Slightly updated national delegate estimates, based on additional results broken out by congressional districts
Biden needs 46% of remaining delegates nationwide for majority but probably won't be able to clinch until June, due to shifting primary calendar
Sanders now needs 62%
Your Friday delegates update:
Biden 1,150
Sanders 860
Biden now 841 delegates away from a majority -- needs 46% of remaining delegates nationwide to clinch, while Sanders needs 62% (still)
For those keeping score at home, here are updated national delegate estimates that include today's results from Alaska...
Updated delegate estimates including Wisconsin's results
Updating nationwide delegate estimates with Wyoming's 14 pledged delegates, of which 10 go to Biden and 4 to Bernie
Updated national delegate estimates, including last night's results from Ohio, where Biden further consolidated lead
Biden now at 1,382 delegates, which is 609 away from a majority...
Updated national delegate numbers, now including Kansas all-mail primary results, where Biden's estimated to pick up 29 of 39 delegates available (77% of vote to Sanders' 23%)
Biden now fewer than 600 delegates away from clinching...
Updated national delegate estimates, now incorporating last night's results in Nebraska, where Biden will win all or nearly all of state's 29 delegates
We now estimate Biden at 1,450 delegates, or 541 away from a majority
(Still can't clinch before June, given current schedule)
Updated national delegate estimates, including tonight's primary results in Oregon, where Biden's on track to pick up lion's share of delegates
Biden's now 477 delegates away from majority; however, Sanders also on track to pick up delegates and potentially delay Biden clinching
Updated national delegate estimates, including Hawaii's ranked-choice primary results (just announced) -- Biden will pick up 16 of Hawaii's 24 delegates and Sanders the remaining 8
Despite suspending campaign, Sanders continuing to win enough votes to earn delegates...
Our current national delegate estimates, including official results from state party conventions held so far: Biden at 1,554 now and 437 delegates away from a majority
Note: Warren & Bloomberg delegates were reallocated to Biden & Sanders in some states, per campaigns' agreement
Getting results from eight presidential primaries tonight: PA, MD, IN, NM, RI, DC, MT, SD
479 total delegates, of which Biden needs 91% to clinch -- may be delayed if Sanders hits threshold in most contests
Should have partial results tonight (with some ballots processed later)
Where things stand as of this morning: Biden 50 delegates away from majority now, but several states still processing ballots (with 92 delegates left to allocate from last night)
Sanders on track to pick up delegates in Pennsylvania and other states, likely delaying Biden clinch
We now estimate Biden with *majority* of pledged delegates needed to clinch Dem nomination
Updates as of late last night with more results trickling in from June 2 contests and Guam
We'll keep tracking, as Sanders still angling to influence party platform (Virgin Islands next!)
Biden clinched nomination several days ago, but we're still tracking delegates to national convention
With most votes counted in Georgia and West Virginia, we now have Biden at 2,121 and Sanders at 1,060
(Other candidates' delegates still being reallocated at state conventions)
With 1,060 delegates, Sanders has ways to go to be able to influence @DNC platform via minority reports at convention
It would require at least 25% of all delegates, so he needs about 20% of pledged delegates remaining (or superdelegate help!)
Updated national delegate estimates, including preliminary allocations in Kentucky and New York (where we may not get primary data from all counties for several more days)
Biden will win lion's share of delegates at stake, but Sanders may increase his total by clearing 15% in NY
Delegate update, including partial returns from Delaware and New Jersey primaries: Biden now at 2,504 nationwide
Biden estimated to win all 21 delegates in his home state of DE and vast majority in NJ
Sanders may clear threshold in NJ (and NY, where ballots still being counted)
Pledged delegates update (remember those?) ahead of next week's Democratic convention...
Biden now at 2,717 pledged delegates, with full allocations in all states and territories (Louisiana, Puerto Rico, and Connecticut, plus recent updates in Kentucky, New York, and New Jersey)
@DNC limited role of superdelegates after 2016, but since Biden has more than half of all available delegates (pledged + unpledged), superdelegates eligible to vote on first ballot
3,979 pledged + 770 unpledged = 4,749 delegates total
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GOP heads into fall still in position to win back House, but advantage a bit smaller after tumultuous summer — trend points toward narrow gains instead of wave
We estimate 226 GOP seats today — 12-seat gain that is smaller than in July
1/5
GOP winning voters who prioritize economy/inflation, so what's tempering overall advantage?
Abortion is big part of story: still on voters' minds, shoring up Dem support, especially with women
More say midterm vote will be to support abortion rights rather than oppose them
2/5
Another part of story is dropping gas prices and uptick in Biden approval — 45% with RVs, highest since Feb
Ratings also up on handling bread-and-butter issues like economy and inflation
Democrats driving gains: +8 on approval from July and +13 on things going well in U.S.
Looks like nature-of--times election: voters most likely to base vote on way things are in country — bad news for party in power
GOP leading among those who cite inflation and those feeling personal impact of higher prices
2/5
Midterms typically referendum on party in power...
Overall, 47% say they're basing their vote a lot on their feelings about Biden — driven by Republicans, most of whom still don't call him legitimate 2020 winner
Trump is still factor for about as many — driven by Democrats