Kabir K. Profile picture
Mar 4, 2020 60 tweets 22 min read Read on X
And with those early projections, we estimate Joe Biden to now be in the delegate lead nationally... Image
We just projected Biden as the winner in North Carolina, along with an expanded delegate lead #SuperTuesday Image
Updated delegate estimates as of 8 pm: Biden's increased lead mainly due to Alabama, where we project him to win

If you're wondering about the new names on the board -- Bloomberg and Gabbard -- those are American Samoa's delegate allocations

#SuperTuesday Image
Fresh delegate estimates on our fancy multicolored board :)

Biden building on his lead due to strong performance in Southern states where polls closed (VA, NC, AL)

Sanders may be able to make up some ground later in the night (but we might not know California results for while) Image
9 pm update: our latest national delegate estimates Image
Decison Desk estimating Biden and Sanders on track to pick up similar number of delegates out of Texas #SuperTuesday
Our 9:30 delegate update -- Biden still leads by over 100 #SuperTuesday Image
Refreshed delegate board, including initial estimates out of Colorado and updated estimates elsewhere #SuperTuesday Image
Our Decision Desk's latest delegate estimates have Biden over 300 and Sanders over 200 now... #SuperTuesday Image
With polls now closed in California, here's our updated delegate board -- Sanders may narrow gap with Biden when California reports... which may take a long time!

#SuperTuesday Image
Here's your midnight update on our delegate estimates... #SuperTuesday Image
Here's where we're leaving things tonight -- going to get some sleep and update our delegate estimates tomorrow #SuperTuesday Image
Here's your midday delegate update (still #SuperTuesday) Image
National delegate update from our team #SuperTuesday

We currently estimate Biden's lead to be 70 delegates...

Biden is 26% of the way to a majority (1,991 delegates)
Sanders is 24% of the way there Image
Correcting typo in previous tweet: Sanders is *23%* of the way to a pledged delegate majority

Also, we still have over 400 delegates to allocate from the #SuperTuesday states
Updated delegate estimates, which now include complete (though still unofficial) results out of Texas -- Biden's lead currently at 75 delegates

Still plenty of ballots left to count in California...

#SuperTuesday day two (electric boogaloo) Image
Nearly 300 delegates left to allocate from #SuperTuesday states -- that's a little over a fifth of what was at stake

More for you tomorrow from @CBSNews Decision Desk...
Latest @CBSNews delegate estimates (1,287 allocated total)

Biden's estimated lead now at 78 delegates... he needs 51% of remaining delegates for majority, and Sanders needs 54%

Easter egg: Tulsi Gabbard has doubled her allocation due to American Samoa

#SuperTuesday (day three) Image
Among nearly 14 million votes tabulated so far, including in first four contests, here two leading candidates' shares:
Biden 35%
Bernie 29%

Here are how many delegates they're picking up for every million votes won (plus Bloomberg and Warren, who have also hit million vote mark) Image
National delegate update: total of 1,310 allocated so far... Image
Here are latest @CBSNews national delegate estimates -- nearly 1,200 delegates allocated so far with about 150 still left from Super Tuesday contests

Including upcoming contests, still over 2,600 delegates at stake: Biden needs 51% and Sanders needs 54% of them to win a majority Image
Updated delegate estimates reflecting our initial estimates from #MississippiPrimary -- which we project Biden winning -- and #MissouriPrimary... Image
Updated delegate estimates now reflect initial estimates from #MichiganPrimary -- which we project Biden to win Image
Our initial estimates in Mississippi, Missouri, and Michigan indicate Biden consolidating his delegate lead over Sanders

To win a majority outright, Biden now needs just half of the approx. 2,500 pledged delegates left to allocate nationwide
Delegates are more important than number of states won, but still quite a map... a sea of Biden in Midwest and South

Orange = Biden
Purple = Sanders Image
Here's your 10 pm delegates update...

We've allocated about half of delegates at stake tonight, and Biden's margin has increased to 150 delegates so far Image
Your midnight delegates update: Biden's estimate now at 800 delegates with a lead of 154 delegates over Sanders

About third of delegates at stake tonight left to allocate... Image
According to my calculations, Biden now needs just under half (49.8%) of remaining delegates nationally for majority Image
Your 1 am delegates update... Image
Updated national delegate estimates...
Biden 835
Sanders 683

Biden has slim majority of what we've estimated so far, with about 200 delegates left to allocate in contests held so far... Image
New national delegate estimates (with more votes in CA):
Biden 846
Sanders 690

Have about 2,300 delegates left to allocate, including from upcoming contests... Biden needs just under half (49.7%) for a delegate majority, while Sanders now needs 57% Image
Current national delegate estimates for Biden and Sanders: Biden leads by 154 delegates (with nearly 1,700 allocated)...

Another 441 delegates are at stake in three contests still happening today: Florida (219), Illinois (155), Arizona (67) Image
Updated delegate estimates reflecting initial allocation out of Florida, where Biden is on track to substantially build on his national delegate lead... Image
Biden now over 1,000 delegates in our national estimates...

(These reflect updated estimates out of Florida and initial estimates out of Illinois, which is leaning Biden with 5% of expected votes counted) Image
Of the almost 2,100 delegates remaining nationwide, Biden now needs 47% for a majority, and Sanders now needs 60%
Updated national delegate estimates, which now include initial estimates out of Arizona -- which we project Biden winning -- and updated numbers in Florida and Illinois...

We've allocated about two thirds of delegates at stake today -- less than 2,000 left to allocate nationwide Image
This is where we're leaving our delegate estimates tonight -- we have now allocated over half of delegates nationwide

Comfortably winning three states that finished voting today (AZ, FL, and IL), Biden now leads Sanders by 291 delegates... Image
Biden is now fewer than 900 delegates away from a majority

He needs 46% of delegates left to be allocated nationwide, while Sanders now needs 61% of them
Updated delegate estimates from (virtual) decision desk... Image
While Biden is fewer than 900 delegates away from clinching, these postponements make it less likely he'll be able to do so before June...

And it becomes impossible if New York (274 delegates) and Pennsylvania (186 delegates) move their primaries to June

Slightly updated national delegate estimates, based on additional results broken out by congressional districts

Biden needs 46% of remaining delegates nationwide for majority but probably won't be able to clinch until June, due to shifting primary calendar

Sanders now needs 62% Image
Your Friday delegates update:
Biden 1,150
Sanders 860

Biden now 841 delegates away from a majority -- needs 46% of remaining delegates nationwide to clinch, while Sanders needs 62% (still) Image
For those keeping score at home, here are updated national delegate estimates that include today's results from Alaska... Image
Updated delegate estimates including Wisconsin's results Image
Updating nationwide delegate estimates with Wyoming's 14 pledged delegates, of which 10 go to Biden and 4 to Bernie Image
Updated national delegate estimates, including last night's results from Ohio, where Biden further consolidated lead

Biden now at 1,382 delegates, which is 609 away from a majority... Image
Updated national delegate numbers, now including Kansas all-mail primary results, where Biden's estimated to pick up 29 of 39 delegates available (77% of vote to Sanders' 23%)

Biden now fewer than 600 delegates away from clinching... Image
Updated national delegate estimates, now incorporating last night's results in Nebraska, where Biden will win all or nearly all of state's 29 delegates

We now estimate Biden at 1,450 delegates, or 541 away from a majority

(Still can't clinch before June, given current schedule) Image
Updated national delegate estimates, including tonight's primary results in Oregon, where Biden's on track to pick up lion's share of delegates

Biden's now 477 delegates away from majority; however, Sanders also on track to pick up delegates and potentially delay Biden clinching Image
Updated national delegate estimates, including Hawaii's ranked-choice primary results (just announced) -- Biden will pick up 16 of Hawaii's 24 delegates and Sanders the remaining 8

Despite suspending campaign, Sanders continuing to win enough votes to earn delegates... Image
Our current national delegate estimates, including official results from state party conventions held so far: Biden at 1,554 now and 437 delegates away from a majority

Note: Warren & Bloomberg delegates were reallocated to Biden & Sanders in some states, per campaigns' agreement Image
Getting results from eight presidential primaries tonight: PA, MD, IN, NM, RI, DC, MT, SD

479 total delegates, of which Biden needs 91% to clinch -- may be delayed if Sanders hits threshold in most contests

Should have partial results tonight (with some ballots processed later)
Where things stand as of this morning: Biden 50 delegates away from majority now, but several states still processing ballots (with 92 delegates left to allocate from last night)

Sanders on track to pick up delegates in Pennsylvania and other states, likely delaying Biden clinch Image
We now estimate Biden with *majority* of pledged delegates needed to clinch Dem nomination

Updates as of late last night with more results trickling in from June 2 contests and Guam

We'll keep tracking, as Sanders still angling to influence party platform (Virgin Islands next!) Image
Biden clinched nomination several days ago, but we're still tracking delegates to national convention

With most votes counted in Georgia and West Virginia, we now have Biden at 2,121 and Sanders at 1,060

(Other candidates' delegates still being reallocated at state conventions) Image
@CBSNews Watching KY & NY primaries tonight

With 1,060 delegates, Sanders has ways to go to be able to influence @DNC platform via minority reports at convention

It would require at least 25% of all delegates, so he needs about 20% of pledged delegates remaining (or superdelegate help!)
Updated national delegate estimates, including preliminary allocations in Kentucky and New York (where we may not get primary data from all counties for several more days)

Biden will win lion's share of delegates at stake, but Sanders may increase his total by clearing 15% in NY Image
Delegate update, including partial returns from Delaware and New Jersey primaries: Biden now at 2,504 nationwide

Biden estimated to win all 21 delegates in his home state of DE and vast majority in NJ

Sanders may clear threshold in NJ (and NY, where ballots still being counted) Image
Pledged delegates update (remember those?) ahead of next week's Democratic convention...

Biden now at 2,717 pledged delegates, with full allocations in all states and territories (Louisiana, Puerto Rico, and Connecticut, plus recent updates in Kentucky, New York, and New Jersey) Image
@DNC limited role of superdelegates after 2016, but since Biden has more than half of all available delegates (pledged + unpledged), superdelegates eligible to vote on first ballot

3,979 pledged + 770 unpledged = 4,749 delegates total

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More from @kabir_here

May 2, 2023
Threading some interesting findings on '22 turnout via U.S. Census Current Population Survey...

52.2% of citizen voting-age population voted in '22 — just a point behind midterm record set in '18

69% of voting-age citizens registered to vote — highest on record (since '02)

1/4 Image
Nearly half (47.1%) of '22 votes were cast ahead of Election Day

While 20 points lower than '20, that's 9 points higher than previous midterm in '18

Nearly one third (31.8%) of voters cast ballots by mail (that's also down double digits from '20, while up 9 points from '18)

2/ Image
Use of early & mail voting varied by race & ethnicity...

Highest usage rate came from Asian voters (67%)

Majority of Hispanic voters (58%) voted either early or by mail

Lowest usage rates came from White non-Hispanic (48%) and Black voters (46%)

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
May 1, 2023
NEW poll on GOP primary electorate and why most would still pick Trump

MAGA-friendly ideas widely held among Reps...

Want candidates who say Trump won in '20, don't criticize him, challenge "woke" ideas, make liberals angry

Some are exhausted by Trump, but far outnumbered

1/7 Image
It's early, so voters first picked as many names as they are *considering* for GOP nom — then picked one they would vote for today

Trump at 58% vote, winning more of his considerers than anyone else

DeSantis trails by a lot, but has room to grow among those considering him

2/7 Image
Trump may also have support floor: quarter of likely GOP voters considering *only Trump* right now, and no other names tested

Important because someone could win with plurality support if eventual field is fractured again

Another half of voters considering Trump + other(s)

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 28, 2022
NEW Battleground Tracker out today...

GOP heads into fall still in position to win back House, but advantage a bit smaller after tumultuous summer — trend points toward narrow gains instead of wave

We estimate 226 GOP seats today — 12-seat gain that is smaller than in July

1/5
GOP winning voters who prioritize economy/inflation, so what's tempering overall advantage?

Abortion is big part of story: still on voters' minds, shoring up Dem support, especially with women

More say midterm vote will be to support abortion rights rather than oppose them

2/5
Another part of story is dropping gas prices and uptick in Biden approval — 45% with RVs, highest since Feb

Ratings also up on handling bread-and-butter issues like economy and inflation

Democrats driving gains: +8 on approval from July and +13 on things going well in U.S.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Jul 31, 2022
First edition of 2022 Battleground Tracker finds GOP lead of about 25 seats in U.S. House race

We survey voters across all 435 districts and apply an MRP model translating current preferences into seats

Snapshot of electorate, not a forecast — 100 days until Election Day!

1/5
Our poll explains GOP lead cbsn.ws/3JjWqfB

Looks like nature-of--times election: voters most likely to base vote on way things are in country — bad news for party in power

GOP leading among those who cite inflation and those feeling personal impact of higher prices

2/5
Midterms typically referendum on party in power...

Overall, 47% say they're basing their vote a lot on their feelings about Biden — driven by Republicans, most of whom still don't call him legitimate 2020 winner

Trump is still factor for about as many — driven by Democrats

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Jul 19, 2021
New @CBSNewsPoll study this week on voting in U.S.

In first installment, we find that most Americans say they prefer the voting process be left alone or made easier

With fight over voting in national spotlight, partisans see it as high-stakes fight affecting who wins power

1/6
Ds see risk to their electoral fortunes if voting is made harder, while Rs see risk to theirs if it's made easier

Ds say harder voting results in some key constituencies losing power

Rs less likely than Ds to see gains/losses, but on balance predict latter if voting easier

2/6
Note: partisans' views echo political discourse but may not be right

Many states expanded by-mail voting in 2020, but not clear it was responsible for historic turnout — recent research suggests otherwise

And even if easier voting boosted turnout, unclear Ds always benefit

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Mar 25, 2021
Thread highlighting takeaways from survey experiment

Given claims that Trump could improve vaccine uptake among supporters, we looked at effects of Trump and Biden endorsing vaccines

Data collected March 17-21 with @YouGov; recontacted people from March 10-13 national poll

1/7
Reps randomly assigned to see either:
Extra Q about Trump getting and endorsing vaccine
No extra question

Dems randomly assigned to see either:
Extra Q about Biden (analogous to above)
No extra question

Idea was to nudge people w/ presidential cue and measure causal effect

2/7
Trump cue comes as news to many Republicans...

Only 11% say they've heard a lot about Trump getting vaccinated and encouraging others to do the same in a recent speech

Another third say they've heard some about it, but a similar number saying they have heard nothing at all

3/7
Read 7 tweets

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