Thread by @awprokop

Just for fun... current Biden+Bloomberg totals in Super Tuesday states:
AL: 75%
VA: 63%
AR: 57%
NC: 57%
TN: 57%
OK: 53%

TX: 49%
MN: 47%
ME: 46%
MA: 45%
CO: 44%
CA: 39%
UT: 34%
VT: 31%

And… current Sanders+Warren totals in Super Tuesday states:
VT: 63%
CO: 53%
UT: 50%
MA: 49%
ME: 49%
CA: 46%
MN: 45%

TX: 41%
OK: 39%
TN: 35%
NC: 35%
VA: 34%
AR: 32%
AL: 23%

Life is more complicated than this, voters won't all go one way, etc.

Okay, let's say Biden+Bloomberg was one candidate, and Sanders+Warren is another. Here are current Super Tuesday margins:

Biden+Bloomberg states
AL: +52
VA: +29
AR: +25
TN: +22
NC: +22
OK: +14
TX: +8
MN: +1.6

Sanders+Warren states
VT: +31
UT: +16
CO: +9
CA: +7
MA: +3
ME: +2

These assumptions of course are unrealistic. (I'd guess Biden is likely to pick up a larger share of Bloomberg voters, than Sanders is of Warren voters.)

But even under these unrealistic assumptions, Biden is hurt more by Bloomberg being in, than Sanders is by Warren being in.

A Sanders+Warren combo would have changed the outcome in two states: MA and ME. But that would hardly matter for the delegate count.

Meanwhile, a Biden+Bloomberg combo improves Biden's performance in CA and across the South. So on net the split field seems better for Bernie