#TweetStorm - #Stocks - Prefer avoiding stocks in public foum, given the last couple of years have been terrible, so do your own research and risk management. Do add yours also to the thread. Talking what nobody wants to talk today.
#WelspunCorp – Market Cap of 4000-4500 cr with an EBIDTA of 1000-1200 cr and to be net debt free by year end and all the geographies firing with promoter not tendering in buyback at 135 seems an interesting case for re-rating.
#BanswaraSyntex – 200 cr market cap. 160 cr operating profit. 65 cr pat. 1350 cr topline. Peak Capacity for 1500 cr topline. Net Debt 350-400cr. Reducing average 30-40 cr debt every year. New independent director.
Thematic - #BrokingCompanies - The consolidation is here and the #sector seems priced for no growth. Interesting companies to study - #MotilalOswal, #IIFLSec ( 50-55 cr rental income gives stability), #EmkayGlobal ( High Cash on Books). Will keep adding on the thread.
Multi-Year Range Breakouts in Nifty50 Stocks but Nifty50 Making Lower Tops –What to Do ?
Apart from that
1) Global Indices – US and Europe near all time highs but India continues to struggle and making lower tops.
2) Stocks in Same Sector – One at all time high the other one at 30% drawdown.
3) What to trust the Breakout Moves or Breakdown Moves ?
This creates a dilemma for a Trader – To trust the Breakout/Breakdown or Not ?
Now lets c the Charts
The Struggling Nifty50
Positive divergences on new lows.
Still in lower tops.
Last major swing highs at 24200.
Swing lows at 22800.
Every big positive candle does not see any follow up action over next 1-3 sessions. Wait for this to change.
#Retail Inflows continue to be strong but Sebi categorization of Stocks > 33k cr Mkt cap being considered Midcap has led to over-ownership and overvaluation in the Top Midcap & Smallcap ( > 20k cr )
Data from Monarch AIF Note.
1) Price CAGR >> Earnings CAGR
Nifty50 and Nifty500 have moved inline with earnings cagr.
NiftyMidcap 100 has seen max re-rating. A price cagr of 27.3% against 11.7% earnings.
2) Concentrated Flows
Mid + Small + Thematic = 55-60% share of MF pure equity net inflows in CY23 and CY24