Thread by @PJverhagen

Analysis #miniSuperTuesday primary 10th of March.

Tomorrow 6 states will be voting in the primary for 352 delegates.

Michigan (125)
Mississippi (36)
Missouri (68)
Washington (89)
Idaho (20)
North Dakota (14)

Lets break down who is strong where and why

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1/15

I'm going to start by analyzing some general trends

1. Latino-Black divide
2. Age
3. Urban-Rural

1. Latino-Black

So as I have discussed before Latino's tend to support Bernie and black voters tend to go Biden. There are some reasons for this, one is the low median 2/15

age among Latinos, the second is Pew research indicating that Latinos are typically in favor of a larger government with more services. Black voters lean socially conservative and are often quite religious.

2. Age
The younger you are the stronger Bernie is. Its really 3/15

simple. That being said, young voters tend not to turn out. So the % of younger voters is very important

3. Urban-Rural

Now this is quite interesting. Last time in many states Clinton did especially well among urban areas and very poor among rural counties. This time 4/15

around it would appear that Bernie is doing better in urban areas and worse in rural counties. This could be a gendered thing, but generally these are the kinds of voters that democrats lost. White, rural, union. Biden should do well among them, which is a weird reversal 5/15

of the dynamic in 2016 where Bernie did well among those voters.

Now over to the states:

Michigan (125)

This is the big one. In 2016 Bernie won it 49.7- 48.3 in an upset that elongated the cycle. Had Clinton delivered a knockout blow there its likely the primary 6/15

would have ended then and there. This year its a similar story, if Bernie loses big in Michigan he might drop out. He knows this and he has been hammering trade as the big issue in Michigan. In 2016 this was effective, because the NAFTA deals were quite bad for MI and were 7/15

signed under the Clinton administration. Moreover MI was weird because Bernie did not do as bad among black voters (21% of electorate) as he had elsewhere, lost the black vote 28-68, which is bad, but enough for him to win the state. He has to make inroads to demonstrate 8/15

viability. Advantage for now is Biden.

Washington (89)

One of the most progressive states in the country. Went from a caucus to a primary, which generally has been bad for Bernie. Not sure why but Bernie over performs in caucuses, maybe its his supporters? This 9/15

state will likely go to Bernie but he needs to rack up a big margin to keep up in the delegate game. Ideally he would win it with 15+ points. In 2016 he won by 45 points. Advantage (and expectations) Bernie.

Missouri (68)

Another close state in 2016 49.6-49.4 Clinton 10/15

This state has been heavily impacted by trade and has a sizeable black population (21% of electorate in 2016). Many of the same dynamics are in play here as in Michigan. Its also an open primary meaning independents can vote which could have a big impact on the outcome 11/15

Look to this state as another one where Sanders needs to keep the margin close to be viable.

Mississippi (36)

71% of voters were black, very very low youth turnout in 2016. Clinton won 82-17. This state is going Biden, the only question is by what margin. 12/15

Idaho (20)

Weird one, no data available. 90% white, allows for unaffiliated to vote. Quite rural, went from a caucus to a primary. Went overwhelmingly for Bernie in 2016 78-21. Not sure if that will happen again, Clinton was seen as a coastal elite out of touch with 13/15

rural voters which was part of why Sanders was so strong. Now with Biden on the other side its unclear if that is still the case.

North Dakota (14)

Similar to Idaho, rural, white and will be interesting to watch for the urban-rural flip. For both Idaho and ND I will be 14/15

looking whether the rural voters go back to Biden. If they do thats a big big strength for him and makes Bernies path to the nomination (even more) difficult.

Thats my analysis for now, let me know what I missed and what questions it raises for you!