This is based on exit poll data, which will gradually be supplanted by vote tallies both in sample precincts and around the state...
Nugget from #MissouriPrimary exit poll: when asked who has best chance of beating Trump, Democratic voters are picking Biden over Sanders by nearly two to one...
We project Joe Biden wins #MissouriPrimary -- stay tuned for our delegates update (race that ultimately matters!)
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GOP heads into fall still in position to win back House, but advantage a bit smaller after tumultuous summer — trend points toward narrow gains instead of wave
We estimate 226 GOP seats today — 12-seat gain that is smaller than in July
1/5
GOP winning voters who prioritize economy/inflation, so what's tempering overall advantage?
Abortion is big part of story: still on voters' minds, shoring up Dem support, especially with women
More say midterm vote will be to support abortion rights rather than oppose them
2/5
Another part of story is dropping gas prices and uptick in Biden approval — 45% with RVs, highest since Feb
Ratings also up on handling bread-and-butter issues like economy and inflation
Democrats driving gains: +8 on approval from July and +13 on things going well in U.S.
Looks like nature-of--times election: voters most likely to base vote on way things are in country — bad news for party in power
GOP leading among those who cite inflation and those feeling personal impact of higher prices
2/5
Midterms typically referendum on party in power...
Overall, 47% say they're basing their vote a lot on their feelings about Biden — driven by Republicans, most of whom still don't call him legitimate 2020 winner
Trump is still factor for about as many — driven by Democrats