Tom Nicholas Profile picture
Mar 19, 2020 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
I made a simple model of #COVID19 spread, with explanation, to show how even simple maths can capture the essence of the challenge.

github.com/TomNicholas/co…

It can reproduce the trends that make the headlines, including that:

1) If unchecked the virus will spread exponentially Image
2) In the worst-case scenarios, the #COVID_19uk death toll in the could be in the hundreds of thousands,
3) The peak load on the healthcare system might not be reached for 2-3 months,
4) Widespread social distancing can help reduce the number of cases, Image
5) and social distancing limits the burden on a finite healthcare system, Image
6) While specifically isolating (and therefore protecting) the most vulnerable segments of the population can significantly reduce the overall mortality rate, Image
7) But slacking off on the social distancing could lead to a re-emergence of the virus. Image
8) This all underscores the need to stop the virus in its tracks as early as possible and prevent an epidemic, for example through app-based contact tracing as described by the Oxford Coronavirus Fraser group:

coronavirus-fraser-group.org

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239551…
The model I used is a standard SIRD (or SEIR) (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased) model, which treats different populations as states with transfer rates between them. Image
While revealing, this is still only an educational demo!

A similar, but more complete interactive model made by an actual epidemiologist can be found here

For advice on #COVID19 see sources like:

@WHO
@NHSuk

and for better data visualisation see
@OurWorldInData
And if you're thinking of using or extending what I've done here, please read this article and do so responsibly

tableau.com/about/blog/202…

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More from @TEGNicholas

Jan 5, 2021
We published a new paper in Energy Policy:

“Re-examining the role of nuclear fusion in a renewables-based energy mix”

We attempt to clarify what a realistic fusion reactor could, and could not, likely offer the world.

1/n

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
We wrote this paper for:

a) Policy people / the public, who want to know what fusion is and isn’t,

b) The fusion community, as we together need to better understand the context and likely competitive landscape our work will face.

2/
Despite a recent surge in activity, the timeline for fusion development is slow. And even once demonstrated, the tech doesn't lend itself well to a rapid rollout.

Fusion can likely only be significant after the world is already renewables-dominated.

3/

royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 13 tweets
Sep 30, 2020
People are still tweeting about the NYT's piece on the SPARC nuclear #fusionenergy release, so as a fusion PhD student I'm going to explain what it is and isn't...

🧵

nytimes.com/2020/09/29/cli…
Commonwealth Fusion Systems is a spin-out from MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Centre. A few years ago they described an innovative design for a power plant called ARC, which proposed using recent advances in high-temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets to shrink the machine.
This works because the fusion plasma is held by the strong magnetic field, as each charged particle corkscrews tightly around the field lines.

The higher the field (denoted B), the tighter the corkscrew, effectively shrinking the whole plasma.
Read 22 tweets
Sep 29, 2020
Regardless of your opinion on Carbon Offsets, companies will want to use them.

So activists pressuring companies need to understand the different types of offsets!

My friend @EliMLarson was part of a team that created a set of Offsetting Principles to help you understand.
As he (and the other academics at Oxford who worked on this) argues then only offsets with certain, very stringent conditions can be relied upon to reduce future warming.

Very few currently available offsets are geologically-permanent, for example.

But offsets which do meet those standards are plausible, and some companies will definitely try to buy lots of them.

(see @BCG 's recent net-zero pledge - a company rich enough to buy the real deal assuming they will buy A LOT of offsets)

Read 11 tweets
Sep 5, 2020
My friend Leo Buizza (who is too smart to be on twitter) took a closer look at @BCG 's new net-zero emissions pledge.

Is it #greenwashing? Let's find out... 🧵

leosthreeminuteblog.home.blog/2020/09/04/so-…
For starters, credit to @BCG for making the pledge at all – it’s already more than @McKinsey and @BainAlerts have done (two of their main competitors), from what I can tell.
@BCG are talking about net-zero by 2030. That's not bad - well before the IPCC's 2050 date, and therefore in line with keeping to 1.5C of global warming.

But what about the fine print...
Read 20 tweets
Sep 1, 2020
Proud to be in London today marching with @ScientistsX, alongside @XRlawyers.

#ActNow Image
The Climate and Ecological Emergency Bill is a piece of work to be proud of, whose championing shows that @XRebellionUK can continue making a difference.

It's also encouraging to see climate experts involved from the start in the creation of the bill.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 14, 2020
We are in a climate crisis, but must not give in to doomism.

@GalenHall4, @ColleenBSchmid1 and I explain why environmental doomism is never the right philosophy.

opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/…

1/🧵
In particular we look at the most pernicious example of doomism within a movement @GalenHall4 and I are members of: the damaging effect of Jem Bendell’s @deepadaptation agenda on @ExtinctionR .

2/
The original Deep Adaptation paper has been downloaded 100’s of thousands of times, and Bendell contributed a chapter to the Extinction Rebellion handbook, and has spoken for the movement many other times.



3/
Read 44 tweets

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