VISION 5: Institutions and Why They Matter (Contd).
The institutions of the modern state are a relatively recent phenomenon. They go back only about 300 years or so, even in the western world. As Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson explain in their book
"Why Nations Fail", a major factor in the wealth of the western powers today lies in the evolution of inclusive institutions that, over time, checked the absolute power of European monarchs, created a level playing field in society, governance and the economy, and led to the
Industrial Revolution. The European nations that went through this process first such as England, became global economic powers, while the countries such as Spain, where the process was delayed, didn't attain the same economic heights.
Strong economic institutions can develop only if preceded by strong political institutions. History teaches this. It's why I have long argued that if we dont fix Nigeria's dysfunctional politics,we have little hope of becoming an economic power that lifts millions out of poverty
This is why I moved beyond being content to be an economic technocrat to run for president. Strengthening economic institutions is first of all a political act which requires political will. In doing so, the political authority reduces the scope for autocratic interventions
in the economic realm and creates a level playing field for economic actors, more rational economic policies, and, ultimately, increased national wealth. This is why I called out President @MBuhari when he "directed" a supposedly independent @cenbank to stop forex allocation to
imports of food items (please ignore the wilfully misinformed or the online trolls that must earn a living in our poverty-stricken country!)
England provides a good historical lesson. Between the 13th and 17th centuries, the monarchy and its subjects, and even different factions of the society, fought bitterly for power and advantage. Not just politically, but including civil war!
In 1215, the barons (the layer of aristocracy beneath the king) pressed King John into signing the Magna Carta (Bill of Rights) which limited the king's authority to levy taxes by requiring him to consult with the barons before he could do so.
King John eventually got the Pope to annul the Magna Carta, but its influence remained. The second constraint on the monarch's absolute power was the establishment of the first elected parliament in England in 1265. This empowered a broad class of people.
Other conflicts followed, including the Peasants Revolt of 1381.The monarchy tried to cling on to despotic power, but social change was afoot, with the balance of power gradually being redistributed. In 1623 Parliament passed the Statute of Monopolies, curtailing King James I's
power to create domestic monopolies for his cronies (the way some of our governments still do!) In 1642 King Charles and the Parliament fought a civil war. The parliamentarians, led by Oliver Cromwell, defeated monarchy, put Charles on trial, and executed him in 1649.
The monarchy was abolished, but was restored in 1660. Charles' brother James II ascended to the throne and tried to restore the "divine right of kings". Another civil war, and the Glorious Revolution, followed. A new constitution and the Declaration of Rights followed in 1689.
From then on, political authority in England effectively shifted from the monarchy to the parliament. Parliament reformed taxation in a manner that encouraged manufacturing, began a reform of financial markets, and created the Bank of England (central bank) in 1694.
This sequence of events and reforms stimulated a financial revolution that made loans easily available to anyone who could provide the required collateral. An economic and industrial revolution followed.
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Multiparty democracy , to be real and benefit Africa, must mean 7 things that are broadly absent presently:
1. The contest for electoral offices must be for authority to govern, with the legitimacy from the popular vote, not for power for its own sake or for self-enrichment.
2. Electoral contests must be a contest of alternative ideas, visions or philosophies about how society can make progress. Every successful democracy is based on contending IDEAS.
3. The PROCESS of elections must have integrity in order to be legitimate. This means the umpire
must be neutral as between contending parties & must be truly independent, not controlled/influenced by government, ruling or opposition parties.
4. The electorate must be both basically and politically literate. This is necessary to have capacity to assess candidates for votes.
I respectfully disagree with President @officialABAT ‘s response to the visit to him by The Patriots, led by former @commonwealthsec Secretary-General Chief Emeka Anyaoku, during which the group (of which I am a member) pressed for a new Constitution for Nigeria as a matter of
urgency, and recommending specific steps to achieve this. While PBAT received the eminent elder statesman and his colleagues with the appropriate dignity and protocols (“this is a group I cannot ignore”, Tinubu noted), the President asserted that economic reform (and the
crisis that it has created in the country) is his priority right now, but that his government would of course study the recommendations of The Patriots and respond (hopefully with action and not merely words). What Nigeria’s leaders fail to understand is that it will be extremely
The @nnpclimited v @AlikoDangote saga is a sad tale of how successive governments of Nigeria have failed to create a real economy that generates wealth for its citizens. Our economy works only for a very few who get rich while Nigerians continually get poorer. #Rentseeking
The economic failure of Nigeria's leaders because of loyalties to vested interests and unholy ties between "business" and government is deeply unfortunate. @NigeriaGov is, and has been unable, either to stimulate through effect economic policy a set of strategic oligopolies
across sectors under which smaller businesses and supply chains thrive, making up a successful national economy as in South Korea. Neither has the government, on the other hand, been able to create a truly competitive, level playing field for business in Nigeria so that wealth
In the debates on national wage in Nigeria we miss the fundamental point: there is little or no productivity in the economy. If we had a truly productive economy there is no reason we can’t have the kind of minimum wage of 400 or 500K that Labour wants. But we can’t, because the
level of productivity in the economy cannot support it. Remember, minimum wage is not just about government salaries. There are not more than 2, at most 3 million civil servants in Nigeria. It is even more about what is paid in the private sector, to household staff, etc.
All of this is why, all things considered, including avoiding a minimum wage that multiplies already ravaging inflation (assuming such a wage can even be paid), I recommend a minimum wage of between N75,000 and N100,000.
In fact, speaking about productivity, how productive is
The Naira tanking back down to the 1,400s to $1 demonstrates what some of us have been saying. Seeking a falsely “strong” currency when the fundamentals are out of whack is shadow chasing. The focus should be on the STABILITY of the exchange rate, not a populist exchange rate
and premature declarations of “best performing currency”. Reports that there are now multiple exchange rates to BDCs, Customs, and NAFEX are also worrying. It’s not yet uhuru. Let us stabilize the Naira at whatever is its true market value and then pivot to the real issues:
taking Nigeria to 20-25K megawatts of 24 hour electricity in 2-3 years starting with Lagos, Kano, Onitsha and Nnewi (Aba seems promising with Geometric power) so we can create a truly productive economy. Dealing decisively with oil theft and ramping up oil production to bring in
Our relationships with others sometimes deepen or shrink in strange ways. When I was a Deputy Gov at the CBN, there was this bank MD that wanted my approval for certain things concerning his challenged bank. But he would not follow the guidelines we gave him, instead looking for
shortcuts and expecting me to play along. One day my patience snapped. I terminated our conversation and showed him the door of my office. Long story short, the matter was eventually resolved after the bank met certain regulatory conditions. Today that MD (since retired) is
a good friend. After I completed my tenure in November 2014 and left the apex bank, my deceased father in law was buried in early 2015. The MD sent a personal representative to the funeral with a gift. Note the phrase “after I had completed my tenure and left the apex bank”.