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Brian Winter Profile picture
@BrazilBrian
Mar 25, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Bolsonaro explicitly links his coronavirus strategy to Trump’s (see image) in tweet this morning calling for businesses in Brazil to stay open. “If the economy collapses, people won’t get their salaries.” Image
You know what? I sincerely hope Bolsonaro & Trump have a #MAGA #BAGA rally in 2 months where they say “We were right, the snowflakes & petralhas were wrong.” B/c that will mean we somehow didn’t lose tens or hundreds of thousands of people - that we found treatment or cure,or...
... mortality rate ended up being much lower than we initially thought.

But for now, that’s not where we’re headed

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More from @BrazilBrian

Brian Winter Profile picture
Apr 23
Why is a port at "the end of the world" suddenly gaining interest from both Washington and Beijing? 1/x Image
Punta Arenas, Chile, has seen shipping traffic nearly double in the last 4 years -- as wars choke shipping lanes in the Middle East and Europe, climate change snarls the Panama Canal and technological breakthroughs such as green hydrogen come to the fore. Image
The Strait of Magellan is also a jumping off point for exploration / exploitation of Antarctica, expected to become even more strategic as the Earth warms. US Southern Command chief Laura Richardson visited the area last year. Image
Read 6 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Jan 23
I’m not sure anybody realizes JUST HOW MUCH oil Guyana has. On a per-person basis, it’s more than any country in the world — and it’s not even close. This sudden bonanza could improve lives, or ruin the country as it has Venezuela & others. Which will it be? A short thread. Image
*At least in theory*, Guyana could become as rich as Italy or Japan by the end of this decade, according to the IMF. Before oil was discovered in the 2010s, this former British colony was one of the poorest countries in South America. Image
Our managing editor @ArriojaJoseE spent a week in Guyana and saw a place still struggling with classic development challenges — but as oil boom starts, inflation is soaring. Some worry about strength of democracy in a country w/ history of ethnic tension
Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Sep 19, 2023
That speech was Lula staking his claim to be the true voice of the Global South, a mantle he aspires to share with Modi. A few observations: Image
The speech was very ambitious, more so I thought than 20 years ago when Lula focused on hunger & inequality. Today he also touched on climate, democracy, big tech, war in Ukraine & more -- appealing to conscience of the rich world to do more.
Lula today was credible, measured & good humored -- free of the controversy and ill-advised rhetoric that has sometimes marked his off-the-cuff comments in 2023 on Ukraine, Venezuela, etc. Even his allies say he is often better with a script.
Read 5 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Jun 21, 2023
Here finally is the untold story of how Biden administration helped dissuade Bolsonaro & parts of Brazil’s military from overturning the 2022 election. Congrats @mj_stott & team. A few thoughts follow

ft.com/content/075335…
The story gets the most critical detail right — the survival of Brazilian democracy in 2021-22 was mostly a tale of Brazilian institutions & individuals. Some of whom showed great personal courage. Image
But at several junctures, US officials — and especially the military —told their Brazilian counterparts in no uncertain terms that if democracy was subverted, it would mean the end of bilateral cooperation. This was important to Brazilian military which gets much hardware from US Image
Read 7 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Jun 20, 2023
This piece accurately reflects how Lula’s foreign policy is being perceived in much of Washington – that Brazil has become a threat to the US. I disagree with the author's analysis of Lula's motivations -- I don't think it's anti-Americanism per se (more)
theglobalamericans.org/2023/06/brazil…
... Rather, I think Lula & allies believe a multipolar world order will be better than the current US-dominated one. That's a valid & rational doctrine for a country like Brazil, even if I personally have doubts (multipolar worlds historically more unstable... )
Add to that Lula's obvious tolerance for dictators "as long as they're on the left," and I understand why the author -- and many others in Washington -- are coming to this conclusion.
Read 4 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
Jun 20, 2023
Last July during Brazil's election, Bolsonaro summoned the diplomatic community to give a completely unfounded presentation alleging the voting system was vulnerable to fraud

This week, as a result, he is likely to lose his eligibility to run in elections until 2030 Image
Brazil's electoral court will consider charges that Bolsonaro abused his power and misappropriated government resources to spread fake news about the election, which he lost to Lula in October. More here:

g1.globo.com/politica/notic…
Bolsonaro's attorneys allege the ex-president was engaging in a "debate of ideas" in order to improve Brazil's voting system. But numerous media reports have suggested Bolsonaro has more or less accepted his loss of eligibility, & his more focused on staying out of prison
Read 5 tweets

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