"Nuclear alerting would start at the first hints of a crisis in which decision makers foresee possible military escalation".<--Our first datapoint for this occured during Balakot. During Doklam Arihant was still undergoing repairs.
Of course, while Arihant may have been out during various periods of the Balakot crisis, we still don't know if nuclear warheads were mated.
And another question, was Arihant able to accept the K-4 in some form or fashion? A report in 2016 suggested that the K-4 was tested onboard the Arihant. How? We don't know. But subsequent tests went back to the pontoon.
Imagery from 2016 suggested that the Arihant was out at sea during the tests.
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Umbra synthetic aperture radar imagery acquired 0648Z 19APR2024 showed evidence of damage to the Iranian S-300PMU2 strategic surface-to-air missile battery in Isfahan since 15APR2024. A probable damaged 30N6E target engagement radar was visible in imagery still on the radar hardstand. Other battery system components however have been withdrawn from the site. Their status and location is currently unclear. According to senior U.S. military sources speaking to FOX News, “The Israelis hit what they intended to strike.”
In my haste to make the previous tweet I pulled callouts from other slides in the deck, so there were discrepancies that required amending. Apologies for deleting the tweet.
Planet imagery acquired on 11FEB2021 showed that 11 x Su-25SM had relocated to Millervo east of Luhansk. The airbase hosts the 31 IAP which has been converting to the Su-30SM from the MIG-29 since 2015. #geoint
This is Luninets AB, located approximately 50 km north of the Ukrainian border in #Belarus. It's a reserve airfield that we often see used in air and air defense exercises. (Imagery: @planet)
Similarly, we also have Babryusk AB, another reserve airfield that #Russia has previously used in air defense exercises with Belarus. Like Luninets, we have an active EW site and a cleared runway. (Imagery: @planet)
Then there's Baranovichi where Russian Su-30SM likely stayed on. However, this low light image from December 2021 doesn't show the canards very clearly. (Imagery: @planet) BY Su-30SM parked in QRA right / prob RS Su-30SM on main ramp w/ prob BY MIG-29.
As #china claimed the Sakteng wildlife sanctuary in eastern #bhutan in June 2020—in likely an effort to sow further confusion—it built a new track to one of four new areas cleared for construction in the Dramana and Shakhatoe areas of western Bhutan. shorturl.at/gipNW
Given the Ladakh crisis that had just begun, it’s likely decision makers were off-balance as China exerted additional pressure with new deployments along the LAC, some of which we still see today. (imagery: @planet)
Furthermore, construction activity has also been monitored in the Langmarpo valley and further south on the Doklam plateau. Several areas have been cleared and we expect additional construction activity in 2022. Here's an area with new foundations (imagery: @capellaspace)