Thread by @MacroTechnicals

Global PMI March surveys

mini thread 1/n

• China PMI rebound doesn't mean real output V-shape recovery if one understands how PMI is being calculated

• no surprise, manufacturing is weak, but wait for services PMI next

2/n no question, manufacturing was meant to look dire given the near standstill and lockdown situation.

quick overview of the overall red board

3/n global M.PMI breadth update

4/n global M.PMI March surveys vs DM and EM (latter obviously with largest weight of China)

5/n M.PMI global big4

• US 48.5 11Y low
• China 50.1 "v-shape lol"
• EA 44.5 8Y L
• Japan 44.8 11Y low

6/n M.PMI Europe big4

• Germany 45.4 15th mth < 50
• France 43.2 86M low
• Italy 40.3 11Y low, 18th mth <50
• Spain 45.7 83M low

wait for Services PMI, which really will tank

7/n Global M.PMI vs energy & industrial metals

Energy = driven by crude, currently "off scale" with a price war between SA/Russia on top of the lockdown/travel ban etc COVID-19 impact

8/n in most DM countries, we are all aware manufacturing sector is only contributing a quarter or so to the overall GDP.

that sector was already in recession with the trade war before the virus standstill.

anyways, these numbers are old news, actually lagging indicator

9/end SPX vs CDX and STOXX vs ITRAXX

Risk Gauges

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