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European Business & Consumer Confidence ESI Mar Surveys

quick mini chart thread

Manufacturing already in recession due to trade war, COVID-19 lockdown measurements clearly hit the Services + Retail sectors and as expected Consumer Confidence plunged,Employment survey crashing
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Portugal
Greece (robust ! did they conduct a survey?)
Poland in freefall
Netherlands
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More from @MacroTechnicals see all

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𝘬𝘢𝘪
@MacroTechnicals
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 03Apr20 wk14 thread 1/n

• horrible Macro data doesn't move markets = "corona-news-lagging"
• Markets in limbo, but vola continues to recede (less surprise shocks)
• the real virus is leveraged debt while economy stands still
2/n ESI bad, Dallas FED -70, Japan Tankan -11, ANZ biz -63.5, US jobless claims -6.6mln, NFP -701k, etc is old news, priced in.

Oil complex got a temp boost on one tweet.

But banks tanked, bonds moving up, credit spreads widened = new RiskOff wave coming?
3/n obviously March, Q1, and YTD has been horrible, some retracements off lows in stocks, true flight to safe haven continues to be US$ (short squeeze on top), US bonds, bit of Gold.

here the update YTD as of wk14
Read 33 tweets
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𝘬𝘢𝘪
@MacroTechnicals
Global PMI March surveys

mini thread 1/n

• China PMI rebound doesn't mean real output V-shape recovery if one understands how PMI is being calculated

• no surprise, manufacturing is weak, but wait for services PMI next
2/n no question, manufacturing was meant to look dire given the near standstill and lockdown situation.

quick overview of the overall red board
3/n global M.PMI breadth update
Read 10 tweets
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𝘬𝘢𝘪
@MacroTechnicals
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 27Mar20 wk13 thread 1/n

• huge global monetary +fiscal rescue packages signal “don’t worry about liquidity+funding”...but
• volatilities across assets peaked
• RiskOn week
• Shortest bear market ever?
• Chart of the month👇
2/n let’s recap this: with half the global economy in forced literal standstill, it forced the biggest monetary (ZIRP/NIRP/QE) and fiscal liquidity rescue package ever. The global leveraged debt bubble burst and COVID-19 triggered more, much more debt. bravo
3/n standstill forced companies to draw revolver credit lines. Acute cash flow problems exposed. Good news this week: primary corp debt market was relatively active, and so was secondary (even with wider bid-ask, but it is not frozen, which is important)
Read 38 tweets

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Abhishek Kapoor
@itootweet
Thread: How #COVID2019 could change the world forever. It is amazing how we find ourselves in the midst of a habit changing evolutionary Black Swan event in the #Corona pandemic. Personal meetings, large scale employment, newspapers, data, delivery boy... Read 1/1
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Ahmed Quraishi
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#COVIDー19 crisis response is another area where the performance of Prime Minister #ImranKhan's cabinet is inadequate & late resulting in a rapid surge in #coronavirus cases+infections. His TV address was unimpressive. @ImranKhanPTI can learn from @realDonaldTrump & @NYGovCuomo.
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James Pethokoukis
@JimPethokoukis
1/ A THREAD: Goldman Sachs just gave a massive downgrade to the US economy because of #COVIDー19. How might that affect the 2020 presidential election?
2/ Here is the gloomy new baseline forecast from GS, lopping a percentage point from 2020 real GDP growth (Q4/Q4) to a meager 1.0%:
3/ No incumbent party has won the presidency with an economy that weak in the postwar era. Indeed, that GS-forecasted rate of growth for 2020 would be slower than in 2016 (1.6% vs. 1.3%, year-over-year), a rate which likely hurt Hillary Clinton.
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Telegraph Business
@telebusiness
Take a Twitter detox over the festive break?

If you're just logging back in, fear not; we've rounded-up some of the best @telebusiness reads from the past week below…
#thread
We first wrote about there being yet more pain for retailers, with the number of people visiting shops on Christmas Eve falling by 9.4% compared to the same day last year…

Read @cajuk's story on how (and why) shoppers stayed away here: telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…
#retail
.@Tim_Wallace then delivered some in-depth analysis about how Britain's economic growth is set to reach a solid rate at the end of 2020 and potentially a faster pace beyond (assuming #Brexit is done on time)…

Read it here: telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…
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Joseph Stalin
@StalinIsBack
1/8 My favorite #quote by #JosephStalin, which explains the scientific, #DialecticalMaterialist explanation of true freedom in material reality, not just as an abstract ideal. #StalinIsBack #StalinLives #JVStalin #Stalin #StalinQuote #StalinQuotes #Truth #MELS #MarxismLeninism
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3/8 An idealistic, dogmatic viewpoint, which capitalists have, however, makes one irrational enough to 'see' freedom where freedom stays trapped on a piece of paper while people are oppressed in their actual lived lives.
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