(1/n) #9pm9minutes PRELMINARY Analysis
carbontracker.in timestamps are limited!
Key points:
1)Total demand fall DUE TO EVENT was ?~29 GW.
2)Demand fall started before 9 pm
3)Most balancing was done by hydro [BIG TIME]
4)Grid rise (aka “recovery”) finished ~10:30 pm
carbontracker.in timestamps are limited!
Key points:
1)Total demand fall DUE TO EVENT was ?~29 GW.
2)Demand fall started before 9 pm
3)Most balancing was done by hydro [BIG TIME]
4)Grid rise (aka “recovery”) finished ~10:30 pm
(2/n) Demand fall was not just due to lighting.
Too much fall, and some of load fall began as early as 8:45. All evenings “normally” decline 3.5-5.5 GW after peak ~7:30. Fall after 8:45 was measurably more than normal trend. See carbontracker.in for other days.
Too much fall, and some of load fall began as early as 8:45. All evenings “normally” decline 3.5-5.5 GW after peak ~7:30. Fall after 8:45 was measurably more than normal trend. See carbontracker.in for other days.
(3/n) [speculation] Folks were switching off loads to protect their devices. Really doubt so much load is lighting! That too participating.
Fall during the 9 minutes was less than the total event - if one wants to estimate "household lighting" in India.
Fall during the 9 minutes was less than the total event - if one wants to estimate "household lighting" in India.
(4/n) Ramp rates are difficult to calculate without better data (we have 3-6 minute time stamps only), but 16.658 GW fall over 3 minutes indicates (with some time error possibilities) a ramp down of 5.55 GW/min, or 4.85%/minute. IMPRESSIVE.
(5/n) Ramping down continues after 9:06 pm. Suggests something more than pure lighting participation (?). Other loads? Feeder management? Or maybe just time-stamp issues. Await full analysis by @PosocoIndia
(6/n) Load return wasn’t swift – modest until 9:15, then rose, with continued slight rise for a while. See a mini-peak 10:30 (later than previous days).
(7/n) RAMPING - For the most aggressive time block, HYDRO provided LOTS of grid support, both directions. Gas was impressive – not in aggregate as it has a low base but 3.5 relative rate of coal when normalized for operating capacity.
(8/n) Few observations: RE was either curtailed/added OR the gods aligned quite well for the most part! Adding load was more controlled perhaps.
[Speculation] People may switch off in advance compared to turn back on with a delay (?). Consumers alone may not explain rise times.
[Speculation] People may switch off in advance compared to turn back on with a delay (?). Consumers alone may not explain rise times.
(9/n) Overall, a great performance, likely not just @PosocoIndia but with state LDCs as well. BRAVO.
This also bodes well for grid flexibility (high RE, maybe) – BUT NOT if this involved too much feeder management! Hydro was at a sweet spot – not yet “must run” ala monsoon.
This also bodes well for grid flexibility (high RE, maybe) – BUT NOT if this involved too much feeder management! Hydro was at a sweet spot – not yet “must run” ala monsoon.
(n/n) - Shoutout to not just essential services providers, but also my colleagues for carbontracker.in and data analysis/visualization - Utkarsh Dalal, M. Tabish Parray, and Rishabh Trivedi.
ADDENDUM: The fall may be higher than 29 GW, which was based on lower-resolution data we collect at carbontracker.in. @OfficeOfRKSingh tweeted 32 GW. Even correcting for any trend decay each evening, it's still more than 29 GW. In one word - IMPRESSIVE grid management.
