Thread by @DrTongia

1/15: [THREAD] Unpacking the Headlines:
20 GW of #NuclearPower planned in India by 2030

2 ways to analyze:
1)Can it happen - and should it happen?
2)What’s nuclear’s role, and what’s special/different about India?

I combine both aspects in this thread

2/15: The plans tick many of the right boxes – standardized designs, fleets, etc. There is also talk of encouraging the private sector – but will they bite? Global private sector is even harder given #DifferencesOfOpinion on the nuclear liability bill.

3/15: Nuclear has many concerns for different people – fuel disposal, accidents, proliferation, etc. Latter is a non-issue as India is a proven mature actor, and it also can island safeguard civilian reactors. But what about the economics? Esp. fully loaded costs.

4/15: India’s nuclear status: Mostly a domestic affair, due to intl. restrictions. Limited domestic natural uranium (U) w/ lots of thorium led to 3-phase plan: 1. Natural U CANDU reactors; 2. Fast breeders for more plutonium; 3. Use Thorium after a good base of fissile material

5/15: DISCLAIMER: my own work 1995-97 showed the 3-phase plan was flawed, not growing fissile material fast enough w.r.t. electricity demand (my PhD under V. S. Arunachalam, who was Kalam’s predecessor). This directly led to India’s opening up to intl. collaboration, incl. A123.

6/15: India’s choices means global reactor collaboration would also req. fuel collaboration – it lacks U enrichment capacity for LWRs (the technology used in most of the world). It can thus collaborate globally for (a) construction; (b) fuel; (c) capital. All may be linked.

7/15: Is there anyone willing to offer turnkey electricity at X Rs./kWh LCOE, bringing (and maybe taking away) the fuel? What is that X? Rs. 7/kWh? Costs should include fuel disposal. Domestically, this used to be treated as “nil” as it was an input to fast breeder reactors.

8/15: It’s all about risks – financial more than the other – who bears it, and what the instruments? Linked to, e.g., cost overruns, fuel supply, and financing. Even performance risk remains–how does nuclear fare in a high RE world? France proved *some* load following is possible

9/15: Even at a $40/t #carbon tax, nuclear power would have a hard time competing with cheap domestic coal (as a baseload, high load factor plant), more so if we demand load-following. Part of this is due to high capital costs and high cost of capital.

10/15 I don't think Kudankulam plants (Russian tech - upgraded from RBMK designs ala Chernobyl🙏) included discounted financing. #Renewables enjoy sharp learning curve improvements, & can access cheap global capital. Only sovereign entities have touched disc. nuclear financing.

11/15: Can India deliver? ~All countries have failed in nuclear plans (& projected prices). Engineering-wise, still work to be done on improved, passive-safe (maybe modular) reactors. This raises short run costs. France was leader; peak 35 reactors under simultaneous construction

12/15: Are these hard or guidance or aspirational targets? Must ensure we don’t crowd out alternatives. Also that these don't have a cost structure that passes through both expenses and financial risks downstream.

13/15: #WhatIf scenario: under fuel agreements, since India needs to import lightly enriched uranium, would any supplier be willing to take spent fuel back? Else, India may want to burn the plutonium therein. (?)

14/15: Risk and uncertainty may be too high for private investors. Do we really see @TataCompanies or @AdaniOnline or @reliancegroup setting up a nuclear power division? Role of government will remain, at the least.

15/15: Personal opinion – nuclear should remain as an option (esp. with C concerns) but it needs to prove itself. It has enjoyed special status in India, but economics really matter. Regulatory Board also needs to be made truly independent.

Addendum 1: the current nuclear power capacity is ~7 GW. So adding 13 GW in a decade is technically quite feasible IF things start soon. The challenges are institutional, financial, and economic. As of now, India doesn't have the same anti-nuclear view some countries have.