I am beginning to get optimistic. Cases appear to be peaking in NY. Almost the entire country is in shutdown. Hydroxychloriquine and antibiotics appear to help. There is increasing evidence that the asymptomatic infection rate could be as much as 50X higher than expected.
If this is true, the severity and death rate could be much lower than anticipated, and we could be closer to herd immunity than projected. Highly accurate antibody tests are scaling production and distribution which will definitively answer this question hopefully soon.
One could imagine a world in the next few months where everyone is tested and all but the immune compromised go back to a socially distanced but more normal life. We wear bracelets or carry a phone certificate which indicate our status, and track infections where they emerge.
Nearly every research institute and lab have redirected their work to a cure for the virus, which increases the probability of finding therapeutics and a vaccine. This is the first such moment in my lifetime where the entire world is all-in on one problem.
Massive stimulus is being injected globally to backfill the economy and bridge us through the crisis. Most corporations, banks and consumers entered the crisis reasonably well capitalized. Rates are extremely low. There is no housing or commercial real estate overhang.
While it is hard to be positive when we know that tens of thousands more will die and many more will get severely sick, I have no choice but to be more optimistic about the intermediate future based on the data and facts I have seen recently. I hope I am right.
One of the biggest economic risks is rebooting small businesses once this is over. The Administration and the Congress appear committed to supporting small businesses. We will have to do more to solve this problem.
